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  • #161
  • Nov 9, 2009 9:22am Nov 9, 2009 9:22am
The breakout signal held up and the first target was reached. The second target was modified by the signals to 1.0051. It's important to check the signals in case there are any new alerts for updated signal information.

Below is this morning's SSI data along with a 4 hour chart of USD/CHF. We're nearing strong support level and the SSI numbers are becoming more positive so traders are trying to pick a bottom at this level. Since SSI is a contrarian indicator it signals a continuation of the USD/CHF to lower levels.

http://img137.imageshack.us/img137/8079/usdchfssi.jpg

  • #162
  • Nov 9, 2009 4:08pm Nov 9, 2009 4:08pm
Along the lines of DailyFX Plus and the trading signals...

If you don't have a live account, but want to access DailyFX Plus, you can register for a free trial through our website here http://www.fxcm.com/trading-signals.jsp

FYI: USD/CHF SSI increased to 3.89 as of this afternoon's reading!

http://img42.imageshack.us/img42/8079/usdchfssi.jpg
  • #163
  • Nov 10, 2009 4:33am Nov 10, 2009 4:33am
Quoting Jason Rogers
Along the lines of DailyFX Plus and the trading signals...

If you don't have a live account, but want to access DailyFX Plus, you can register for a free trial through our website here http://www.fxcm.com/trading-signals.jsp

FYI: USD/CHF SSI increased to 3.89 as of this afternoon's reading!

http://img42.imageshack.us/img42/8079/usdchfssi.jpg
the index I take it is your clients holding or they're in there?

if so, that's real nice showing the world which way FXCMs client book is heading.

I would love to be client.........not!
  • #164
  • Nov 10, 2009 8:48am Nov 10, 2009 8:48am
Quoting >Apocalypto<
the index I take it is your clients holding or they're in there?

if so, that's real nice showing the world which way FXCMs client book is heading.

I would love to be client.........not!
That's right. The SSI is showing trader positioning and sentiment in the FX market, and it gives you insight as to how the majority of retail traders think. A positive positioning indicates traders are net positive that pair, and a negative figure indicates traders are net short that pair. The larger the number, the more skewed positions are in that direction. For example, yesterday's 3.89 reading in USD/CHF SSI indicates there are 3.89 long positions for every short position.

The majority of retail traders like to pick tops and bottoms. In other words, if the market is trending up, "it can't possibly go higher so I'll sell it". Or if the market is trending down, "it can't possibly go lower so I'll buy it". Second, because traders think the market is at a bottom or top, they tend to add to losing positions rather than cutting losses. This is why you will see positioning increase as the market continues to trend. Traders are adding to the position for a better average price.

This is why SSI works very well as a contrarian indicator during trending markets. During ranging markets, retail traders will be mostly correct.

SSI teaches an important lesson about the potential downfall of adding to losing positions and not cutting back on losses. Here is where you can find the weekly SSI figures analyzed on DailyFX http://www.dailyfx.com/technical_analysis/sentiment/
  • #165
  • Nov 10, 2009 3:58pm Nov 10, 2009 3:58pm
EUR/USD still testing the important 1.50 level. Here's the latest Elliot Wave Analysis from Jamie Saettele. Jamie's bias is short EUR/USD.

http://www.dailyfx.com/export/story-...1009techs1.jpg

Elliott Wave Analysis can be found on DailyFX here http://www.dailyfx.com/technical_analysis/elliott_wave/

  • #166
  • Nov 10, 2009 4:44pm Nov 10, 2009 4:44pm
Quoting >Apocalypto<
that's sickening, you use your clients positions to advertise an Index....

Just another reason people to keep clear of this bucket shop.
Hi Apocalypto,

The SSI is giving traders insight into retail positioning the same way the COT data gives you insight into the positioning for speculative and commercial positions in the futures market. I'm guessing your opinion is the same about the CFTC due to the COT report? You can also see short positioning in stocks. What's so different about having the same available in currencies? Unless your broker doesn't want to be transparent.

The interesting thing about the SSI report is it shows you psychologically how biased traders are towards range trading. It's another tool we have available to help traders with their trading. And some of the signals available to FXCM live clients through DailyFX are based upon SSI.

Jason
  • #167
  • Nov 10, 2009 5:02pm Nov 10, 2009 5:02pm
Quoting Jason Rogers
Hi Apocalypto,

The SSI is giving traders insight into retail positioning the same way the COT data gives you insight into the positioning for speculative and commercial positions in the futures market. I'm guessing your opinion is the same about the CFTC due to the COT report? You can also see short positioning in stocks. What's so different about having the same available in currencies?...
You have a job to do, my last post was out of line.

See you in market Makers thread.
  • #168
  • Nov 10, 2009 6:28pm Nov 10, 2009 6:28pm
Quoting Jason Rogers
Along the lines of DailyFX Plus and the trading signals...

If you don't have a live account, but want to access DailyFX Plus, you can register for a free trial through our website here http://www.fxcm.com/trading-signals.jsp

FYI: USD/CHF SSI increased to 3.89 as of this afternoon's reading!

http://img42.imageshack.us/img42/8079/usdchfssi.jpg
Just so i understand correctly, the SSI provides possible trend insight? when you say the EURUSD is -1.85 does it mean a bias towards or against that pair? Im guessing it means there are 1.85 positions short for every position long? Correct me if im wrong. How effective is this tool in gauging market sentiment?
  • #169
  • Nov 11, 2009 9:50am Nov 11, 2009 9:50am
Quoting Inf.Investor
Just so i understand correctly, the SSI provides possible trend insight? when you say the EURUSD is -1.85 does it mean a bias towards or against that pair? Im guessing it means there are 1.85 positions short for every position long? Correct me if im wrong. How effective is this tool in gauging market sentiment?
Hi Inf.Investor,

Thanks for the questions.

You are correct about how to read the positioning number. A negative number means traders are net short that pair, whereas a positive number means traders are net long that pair. The actual number is showing you the magnitude of shorts to longs and vice versa. In this case, there are 1.85 short positions for every long.

While no indicator is perfect, we think it's a great tool for gauging sentiment. And given that FXCM is one of the largest non-bank forex dealers, we're able to include a large representative sample of the broader small-investor FX market.

Why exactly does SSI work as a contrarian indicator? We've found that retail traders like to fade momentum. The majority of traders sell into rallies and buy declines. This strategy works when the market is ranging but becomes disastrous in trending markets. As the market continues to move against positions, traders add to losing positions rather than cutting back. This causes the SSI ratio to become more and more extreme. Once traders capitulate and the ratio pulls back, it usually indicates a slow down in momentum or reversal.

The same happens in other markets. For example in the stock market, I know many traders, including myself, who are thinking "stocks can't possibly go higher. Has the economy really improved this much?" Yet stocks go higher, and trying to pick a top in the stock market has been a losing strategy.

We have some more overview of SSI info. here http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/educati...e_the_SSI.html. The graph on the webpage is from the weekly SSI report DailyFX releases on Thursdays. It's found in the sentiment section of DailyFX http://www.dailyfx.com/technical_analysis/sentiment/ .

Hope that helps

Jason
  • #170
  • Nov 11, 2009 10:33am Nov 11, 2009 10:33am
Also, the SSI data on DailyFX Plus is more extensive than what I post in the positioning graph. Below is the full screenshot of the SSI page. There is also daily % change in long/short positions and an open interest pie chart.

http://img21.imageshack.us/img21/635...yssiupdate.jpg
  • #171
  • Edited 9:53am Nov 12, 2009 9:37am | Edited 9:53am
FXCM Powercourse Instructor Sean Hyman writes an update every morning on his blog giving a brief highlight of important news events that occurred overnight and important news events to watch for during the day. It's a great way to get a macro perspective in a short period of time. You can find his blog here. The News in 60 Seconds piece is usually updated around 9:30-10:00am EST.


Mild morning so far...

biggest % gainers: USD/CAD, AUD/NZD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY...so mild USD strength.

biggest % losers: NZD/USD, EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/USD...mild dollar strength, euro weakness, NZD weakness as commodities weaken.

Oil down to $78.52
Gold still high at $1,114

Obama to arrive in China within days to talk about the yuan and other things: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...VanTyrHo&pos=2

U.S. futures down so far as Chinese Premier Wen said the world faces a gradual and uneven recovery.

U.S. Unemployment Claims better at 502k vs. 512k expected and 514k last time.

Geithner speaks at 11:30am EST today.

Trichet speaks at 2pm EST today.

BOE still open to Quantitative Easing in the U.K., while Trichet and Bernanke want to exit: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aXh27TMYuPu8
  • #172
  • Nov 13, 2009 8:45am Nov 13, 2009 8:45am
From Sean Hyman of the DailyFX Powercourse:

biggest % gainers: NZD/USD up 0.49%, GBP/CHF, GBP/USD, AUD/CHF...so mild GBP strength and mild CHF weakness.

biggest % losers: EUR/JPY down 0.82%, CHF/JPY, USD/JPY...so mild JPY strength

Oil ($76.11) and Silver are weak today.

Gold at $1104

Overall fall of the dollar has really overwhelmed many central banks: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...1Esa_nIg&pos=2

German GDP 0.7% vs. 0.8% expected and 0.4% last time (upwardly revised).

CAD Trade Balance better at -0.9 Billion vs. -1.6B expected and -2.0B last time.

U.S Trade Balance worse -36.5B vs. 31.8B expected and -30.8B last time.

Univ. of Michigan Comsumer Sentiment coming up at 9:55am EST today... 71.1 is expected.

The VIX (Volatility Index) just put in a "higher low. Could forewarn of a top in stocks to come soon.
  • #173
  • Nov 13, 2009 12:29pm Nov 13, 2009 12:29pm
FYI for FXCM traders with FXCM (US) LLC. There will be an update to the FX Trading Station II adding stops and limits to the summary window of the platform. So you can now add a stop/limit for your entire net position without having to use an OCO stop/limit entry order. The update will occur when you login on Sunday.
  • #174
  • Nov 15, 2009 9:52pm Nov 15, 2009 9:52pm
The new stop/limit functions seem to be working as advertised.

Another feature found in the summary window is the ability to right click your net position and CLOSE ALL!!!! I for one, am a very happy camper!

Thanks, Jason!
  • #175
  • Nov 16, 2009 8:06am Nov 16, 2009 8:06am
Quoting opie999
The new stop/limit functions seem to be working as advertised.

Another feature found in the summary window is the ability to right click your net position and CLOSE ALL!!!! I for one, am a very happy camper!

Thanks, Jason!
Happy to hear!
  • #176
  • Nov 16, 2009 9:19am Nov 16, 2009 9:19am
Here's what we added to the FX Trading Station II over the weekend:


1. Net Stops/Limits added to the summary window. This is only for FXCM US accounts:

http://img4.imageshack.us/img4/4470/netstoplimit.jpg




2. Close All and Close All for Symbol added to summary window. Lets you close all the trades for a particular currency pair (through the summary window) at once rather than placing a market order in the offsetting direction. This is only for FXCM US accounts (FXCM UK accounts can do this through the open positions window):

http://img10.imageshack.us/img10/6335/closeall.jpg




3. Lastly, the Marketscope chart will display an arrow indicating where you opened the trade:

http://img97.imageshack.us/img97/2702/arrowg.jpg

  • #177
  • Nov 16, 2009 11:01am Nov 16, 2009 11:01am
Forgot to mention OCO orders in my last post. The OCO order functionality now has two options: Simple and Complex.


Simple OCO

The Simple OCO Order is used to link 2 entry orders of the same currency pair by one-cancels-other (OCO). The OCO is created through one simplified order window rather than having to create two separate entry orders and then link them together. Here's the simplified order window:

http://img211.imageshack.us/img211/5092/simpleoco.jpg


It's basically the same thing as the "pull back/breakout" feature if you were familiar with it. We renamed it to simplified OCO.


Complex OCO:

The complex OCO is what you were used to before. We renamed it to Complex OCO Orders. They continue to work exactly the same. You have to create entry orders separately, and then manually link them together in the Complex OCO Order window.

http://img689.imageshack.us/img689/1...mplexorder.jpg



The complex feature also allows you to link 2+ entry orders by OCO and have multiple currency pairs linked by OCO if you want to do some crazy strategy.



The separate OCO order window was taken out completely, and the OCO orders now appear directly in the Orders window.
  • #178
  • Nov 16, 2009 2:19pm Nov 16, 2009 2:19pm
USD/JPY fell through an important support level at 89.30 and retail traders are aggressively adding to long positions in hopes of averaging into a better price. The next major support level is near 88.20 which was the low from early October. SSI is a contrarian indicator so the long positioning indicates a possible move lower for USD/JPY.

USD/CHF SSI is also at extreme levels but has held better than USD/JPY.

http://img20.imageshack.us/img20/3887/usdjpyssi.jpg

  • #179
  • Nov 17, 2009 9:13am Nov 17, 2009 9:13am
As most of you have probably heard, the NFA has passed an ammendment setting a maximum allowable amount of leverage brokers can offer to forex traders. The major currency pairs will have a maximum leverage of 100:1 (1% margin) and the exotic pairs will have a maximum leverage of 25:1 (4% margin). The amount of margin collected will also be based on the notional value of the position traded.

The new rule goes into effect on November 30th; however, FXCM will be adjusting client margin levels, in preparation of the change, on Sunday November 22nd.

Here's a table we put together showing the new margin amounts:

http://www.fxcm.com/images/new-margi...rgin_Table.jpg


The default leverage amount for FXCM UK will stay at 200:1 leverage (0.5% margin), and the leverage is customizable if you would like to modify the leverage amount.
  • #180
  • Nov 17, 2009 2:19pm Nov 17, 2009 2:19pm
Mark Dow, a hedge fund manager, has an interview on Yahoo Finance explaining that the dollar is falling due to a lack of demand and not due to an oversupply of dollars. Other investors, (Jim Rogers comes to mind) are concerned that the Fed is printing too much money and leaving interest rates too low causing the dollar to fall. Here's the interview on Yahoo:
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker...haros-Dow-Says

And for comparison, here's the adjusted monetary base figures from the ST. Louis Fed website showing the increase in the monetary base during the recession.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...ax_630_378.png

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