Peter Crowns or TheRealThing: One Question only | Forex Factory

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Peter Crowns or TheRealThing: One Question only

  • #1
  • First Post: Nov 9, 2009 8:45pm Nov 9, 2009 8:45pm
Both Peter Crowns and TheRealThing are highly regarded traders on FF. Both use a variety of volatility breakout methods that have been outlined and/or referenced in this forum. Both have a large following too from what I gather.

However, I'm sure many of those who have read their postings still have many unanswered questions that you would love to ask them given a chance.

Supposing now you have a rare opportunity to ask them ONE QUESTION and one question only - presumably about something you've never been able to deduce from their postings and/or something that would result in the proverbial "AHA" moment - what would that question be?

Please keep your question as succinct as possible (not multiple questions in the same long sentence) http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon6.gif

Thanks
  • #2
  • Nov 10, 2009 12:53am Nov 10, 2009 12:53am
May I be the first?

Facts:
1. If one trader enters according to the rules he will lose 50% of his trades. This means that the entry is not better than a random one.
2. According to both of them, you must keep the trades as long as possible (months or even years).
3. A trader goes long today and skips the short trades based on the close of 07:00 but tomorrow he will go short if the same conditions are inverted fullfilled.

Question:
Why does some inside candle occuring today have some meaning on the long run?
  • #3
  • Nov 10, 2009 3:04am Nov 10, 2009 3:04am
breakout trading makes you money in the LONG run, meaning you might have years of working long hours day after day and not making any money.

what other systems are you using to have a regular income?
  • #4
  • Nov 10, 2009 3:50am Nov 10, 2009 3:50am
Maybe you didn't understand my question, so I'll rephrase it. Why is an inside candle so different from other candles and why is its entry point better, if the money come from the very long movements?

If I must wait for years to have some profit I would certainly not look at inside bars based on the hourly chart.
  • #5
  • Nov 10, 2009 4:58am Nov 10, 2009 4:58am
hei all!

There is two things that said PETER but NOBODY talks in jaroo thread and havn't even been mentioned!!
1) TRADE the strongest and WEAKEST!!!
2) DON"T RISK TO MUCH!!

How do I apply this:
1) exactly 1 hour before london opens (my time 9:00) i open USD/jpy eur/usd and gbp/usd trades (all in one direction) this hlep me to determine WICH is strogest and weakest! which pair is up more or down more
2) my risks un u/j 8 pips, e/u and g/u 10. i NEVER take candles witch ar wider!

last month +200 pips!!! ~65% accurancy
o yeah i use jaroo indy 1.2 with mods!

p.s i trade e/u and g/u if there is 10 pip difference between them!
  • #6
  • Nov 10, 2009 5:00am Nov 10, 2009 5:00am
i trade 15 min candles and ONLY run 1:1
  • #7
  • Nov 10, 2009 5:24am Nov 10, 2009 5:24am
Breakouts from inside bars are not predictive of longer movements - certainly not enough to build a system around. What the inside bar does provide is a clear point at which you know that the trade is wrong i.e a logical stop out point based on price action. DIBS has two further rules to provide trend filters and it is only in combination that these things work.

I would go further and say that there are no technical patterns that you see now that are highly predictive of what will happen in 20 bars time.
  • #8
  • Nov 10, 2009 6:13am Nov 10, 2009 6:13am
Quoting ap2009
Both Peter Crowns and TheRealThing are highly regarded traders on FF.
Supposing now you have a rare opportunity to ask them ONE QUESTION and one question only
Oh, really? One question is 'allowed'? What a huge honor....

By the way who is this Peter WHO? And what on earth is "TheRealBullshit"? Never heard about it. Please enlighten.
  • #9
  • Nov 10, 2009 2:56pm Nov 10, 2009 2:56pm
Given the lack of consensus in backtesting his methods, and his statement that the best systems are notoriously hard to backtest accurately, what advice does he have for prospective backtesters interested in volatility breakouts, what are the typical errors that system traders make, what is the minimum resolution of data needed to ensure accurate results?

Thread with varying results - deathbait asks some interesting questions

Joel's response
  • #10
  • Feb 1, 2021 4:21am Feb 1, 2021 4:21am
Quoting Sauron
May I be the first? Facts: 1. If one trader enters according to the rules he will lose 50% of his trades. This means that the entry is not better than a random one. 2. According to both of them, you must keep the trades as long as possible (months or even years). 3. A trader goes long today and skips the short trades based on the close of 07:00 but tomorrow he will go short if the same conditions are inverted fullfilled. Question: Why does some inside candle occuring today have some meaning on the long run?
it doesn't
and I've done rigorous back-testing
and my research shows that entering with no candle patterns whatsoever brings the best results. outside/inside, narrow/wide range brings less result

also, drawdown-wise
wide range(1) has less dd more profits compared to nr (less dd and less profits compared to no pattern)
narrow range(1) has more dd less profits compared to wr (more dd and less profits compared to no patterns)
Steps to profitability: Collect data, money management, stay bored
  • #11
  • Last Post: Feb 1, 2021 4:28am Feb 1, 2021 4:28am
Quoting remonpilip
{quote} it doesn't and I've done rigorous back-testing and my research shows that entering with no candle patterns whatsoever brings the best results. outside/inside, narrow/wide range brings less result also, drawdown-wise wide range(1) has less dd more profits compared to nr (less dd and less profits compared to no pattern) narrow range(1) has more dd less profits compared to wr (more dd and less profits compared to no patterns)
so why does inside bar works?
it simply works because of idk whose theory is this

but the theory, in my own words goes something like this:
after a series of stability there will be chaos.

I think it's string theory or perhaps democracy? lol

jokes aside, it's merely a "volatility breakout" system

and as Jesse Livermore the legendary trader, in my own words ,said: (If I'm not mistaken,, I think this was on his 'How To Trade In Stocks' book)
"Some people trade to understand the how market works, I just trade to make money."
Steps to profitability: Collect data, money management, stay bored
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