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What's the best 5 year investment?

  • #41
  • Nov 9, 2009 9:49pm Nov 9, 2009 9:49pm
Quoting neo1599
I am sure every1 has heard of the Ambani's.

So 5 years down the line this should be about 2-3 times current market price.
We heard that these 2 sobs don't get along. Typical Indian "I'm better than you" crap.

2-3 times is very conservative, but I'll take it.
  • #42
  • Nov 10, 2009 2:06am Nov 10, 2009 2:06am
Quoting pounce
Qing up 11% on very good volume (4 times yesterday's) on no news at mid-day on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
Qing closed up 32%.
  • #43
  • Nov 26, 2009 9:09pm Nov 26, 2009 9:09pm
I recently sold Kingsoft another game-making software company. It had all my criteria going for it - 0 debt, increased cash on hand, lower/steady inventory etc.
But when one mofo (Citi) downgraded the company to a sell, Kingsoft put out a statement (within hours) to counter the mofo's reasons for the downgrade. This to me reeks of mofoness. I mean, come on!

Since then, it collapsed 10%, I guess on the adage that nothing is true until officially denied.
When I looked at the Board, it was very heavy (too many mofos, all smiling) for a software company.
I took at 12% loss on this one, happily.

Quoting pounce
I recently sold Kingsoft another game-making software company. It had all my criteria going for it -...
Kingsoft (3888) came out with it's 3Q earnings today - stock hammered in today's funk, down 10%.
  • #44
  • Nov 27, 2009 5:29pm Nov 27, 2009 5:29pm
Quoting Pharoah
The company provides Legal Insurance + Identity theft protection via Krull, each year for the past 15 years has shown continual growth. PPL is the only company in north america to offer legal insurance at the level they offer it. All I have done is offered the name/trade name of a solid company that has shown 15 years of continual growth, I'm not a stocks trader, I'm a forex trader. Someone asked about a good 5 year investment, while I said it itself if not going to be the key factor, it is still going to be a good 5 year investment, as the company...
PPD is a ponzi scheme and may go out of biz in the next 5 yrs. Take a look at the two huge moves on this chart... One is based on an SEC inquiry (the first) and the 2nd is based on a FTC inquiry. Meanwhile insiders have been unloading the stock non-stop.

I wouldn't touch this company with a 10-foot pole:

http://finviz.com/publish/112709/PPDc1dl1828.png
  • #45
  • Nov 27, 2009 6:12pm Nov 27, 2009 6:12pm
I don't get all the Buffet bashing and I certainly don't get this infatuation with the statement "Buffet lost 30% in 2008". According to Forbes, Buffet's net worth went from $50bn to $40bn (only 20%) and Berkshire Hathaway's Assets fell from $273bn to $267bn and shareholders equity fell from $120bn to $109.2bn. Did the stock market take a bite out of Bershire's equity holdings?? Of course -- not to mention the long-term put contract that BRK sold on the S&P500, but I'm not sure what that proves. The man still has the midas touch and I wouldn't bet against him.

Onto BYD:
BYD will do just fine because it sits at the convergence of both trends mentioned earlier in this thread: Green Technology & the growing Chinese demographic that wants automobiles.

BYDDY is the US Traded ADR and it represents 10 Hong-Kong listed shares (Ticker: 1211.HK). Buffet bought his shares at $8HKD/share = a little over $1 USD per share, or the equivalent of $10/share of the US ADRs. So let's do a little rudimentary calculation on this: Buffet buys on 9/27/09 for $10 and the stock is trading currently just over $83/share today -- that's only about 600%+ return in about a years time (currency adjusted).

I'd say he still has his touch. Not to mention, the company was trading <20x trailing earnings when he bought it... now it's trading at about 50x forward earnings. But is that expensive for a stock that is going to double earnings this year and will still only have fractional penetration into a population of 1bn people who want cars in the future? I don't know, time will tell....

Take a quick peak at this:
PRODUCT...................... 2005--- 2006--- 2007--- AVG 2-YR GROWTH
Handset Components....... 1,906--- 5,134--- 9,186--- 124.13%
Battery and Other Parts.... 3,963--- 4,567--- 7,149--- 35.88%
Automobile and Related........ 628--- 3,232--- 4,871--- 232.46%

2008 revenues were something like $27bn HKD or so, only up 26%, but not shabby for a year that saw the onset of the global recession.

Is it the best investment of the next 5yrs? I don't know, but it probably won't be a bad investment....
  • #46
  • Nov 27, 2009 9:29pm Nov 27, 2009 9:29pm
Don't know what that is.

Did his portfolio lose ~30% in the last crisis? Yes.
Does he have the Midas touch? Sure, anything he touches turns to gold.
For those that do not know, ~ = approximately.

The point of referring to Mr. Buffet is with regard to long-term investing. This is a topic about a 5 year investment horizon, meaning long-term?
What I am saying is this:
Today's 5 years into the future, is like expecting real-time, internet, stem-cell, etc. in the 60s. Did Buffet have that insight? No. Does he even invest in tech? No. He's only into things he understands. Railroads, sugar-water, sahving-cream, insurance and money ofcourse.

5 years into the future today, is like 20 years in the future in the 80s, 30 years into the future in the 90s. That's the point I am trying to make.

And anything you can think of that will happen in 5 years, is already out there with titanic PEs. There's no getting in on the cheap before everyone else.

Buffet is different. He bought 10 cheap suits from a Chinese tailor. That company's stock multiplied 20 times. That's the midas touch.
  • #47
  • Nov 27, 2009 9:40pm Nov 27, 2009 9:40pm
came out with great earnings yesterday. The stock lost ground nonetheless in the general market crash (5% down in Hong Kong).

Sure BYD multiplied ~8 times higher than the lows of 1 year ago. In fact, that is the only reason that is shot up so much is because Buffet bought.

When he disposes off that asset like he does, it will collapse back to where it belongs without the midas touch.

Same thing happened to PetroChina - up ~7 times and after Buffet sold part of his holdings, it lost ~70%. To be fair, he sold just before the crisis last year, so everthing is down.
  • #48
  • Nov 27, 2009 10:16pm Nov 27, 2009 10:16pm
Quoting pounce

For those that do not know, ~ = approximately.
For those that do not know, this is the first time pounce is using the tilde in this thread (a tilde is one of these: ~). But he'll claim he's been using approximately the entire time. lol

Be that as it may, he's still incorrect: the holdings of Berkshire Hathaway, Buffet's investment vehicle, did not go down 30% as I just posted the assets of BRK in my prior post (they went from $273bn down to $267bn -- Assets are measured at Mkt Value on the Balance Sheet). You assume incorrectly that he only invests in stocks. You don't hear about all his fixed income investing, Currency investments, etc. Remember the $1bn or so he put into Goldman preferred stock? How'd he do on that one? 10% coupon on the preferred stock he bought and warrants that are now deep in the money struck at like $100/share....

As for this statement:
"5yr into the future today, is like 20yrs into the future in the 1980s"

It makes no sense to me.

Finally, P/E is fine for quick and dirty analysis but it doesn't tell you nearly the whole story. People might love that stock PPD, but if its based on fraud or a business model that won't exist in a few years, what good is an 8x PE if the "E" (earnings) are going to zero. In the same way, why not pay 50x earnings, if you project that earnings are doubling every year for the next 5 yrs? In Fact in 1986 a stock like MSFT didn't have any earnings and was "infinitely" expensive but it made millionaires out of secretaries. I haven't researched BYD at all, so I wouldn't know if its cheap or expensive but I wouldn't just blindly dismiss the multiple as overpriced without knowing the details.

Thanks for your input "pounce" - it's very helpful in formulating my next great investment.
  • #49
  • Nov 28, 2009 10:41am Nov 28, 2009 10:41am
Thanks for your insight "InfinitySl" but I don't have to claim anything. And certainly not a lol.

~ is a mathematical sign for approximation, just as these <, > and lots more.

You are referring to Buffet's recent buys, recent meaning at the depths of market. The ~30% drop is sometime before the purchases. But that is hardly, the point.

I am tired of repeating myself, so go look for the 5 year investment and good luck.
  • #50
  • Nov 28, 2009 10:57am Nov 28, 2009 10:57am
Quoting InfinitySL
In Fact in 1986 a stock like MSFT didn't have any earnings and was "infinitely" expensive but it made millionaires out of secretaries.
Indeed. But would you happen to know how many thousands upon thousands shied away from MSFT because it had no earnings?
And how many sold when it doubled or tripled or hit a 5 bagger only to regret it when it turned out to be a 30 or 40 bagger?

If we are looking for the next best thing, presumably we want to get in early?
If that is the case, whatever it is that is going to be the next MSFT is already out there and it is being dismissed or changing hands.

Thanks for your input "InifintySL" - I am pretty sure if I become a multi-millionaire in 2015 I am going to be saying, you know I found this thing on the forexfactory forum and I kept the faith etc.
  • #51
  • Nov 28, 2009 11:14am Nov 28, 2009 11:14am
Quoting pounce
You are referring to Buffet's recent buys, recent meaning at the depths of market. The ~30% drop is sometime before the purchases. But that is hardly, the point.
No, actually I referenced his assets at the end of 2007, and his assets at the end of 2008. They did not go down 30%. Learn how to read an annual report before making statements that are demonstrably false.
  • #52
  • Nov 29, 2009 2:27am Nov 29, 2009 2:27am
Quoting neo1599
Hi

Looking ahead what do you think is the best investment for the next 5 years.

It could be:

Gold
Oil
Alternate energy
green technology
nano technology
Any currency?
etc etc

Post your opinion and the reasons.

My choice is RMB. Its not freely tradeable but I believe the currency will give amazing returns over 5 years.

Reasons:

The world's manufacturing is shifting to China.
A forward looking community.
People are hard working and look to work.(personal experience)
Socially very conscious. i.e. they understand no one works for free and everyone...
I live and work in China for the last 7 years so I will comment on those areas. Your ideas of China are way too optimistic. Let me bring you down to Earth. Westerners especially Americans have no concept of what it is to run a nation of 1.3 billion people. Food, sewer, water, etc. If one billion Chinese people move to the moon they still would have more people than the USA. That is a staggering number. They are basically in survivable mode, where do I get tomorrow's food. Only about 25% of Chinese have reached middle class, so a long long ways to go. If China becomes efficient, how do you get jobs for all these people. As long as China uses 80% of its population to grow food they can employ most of the people. But if you make farming efficient then what?? One person mentioned cars, yes big growing market, problem, where do you park the cars and where do you put the roads so they can drive. The city I live in is already grid locked and people are still buying cars. For parking at night they have to park everywhere, basketball courts, streets, sidewalk, etc. etc. They simply have no place to put them. I saw an event on a 8 lane highway where they used 3 of the lanes for parking because they had no place to put the cars for the event.
Yes there will be more growth in the immediate future but every time a Chinese person puts a car on the road, gas goes up, sooner or later they wont be able to buy the gas. It is good that the USA is finally getting to alternative energy vehicles etc. The government subsidizes the cost of gas for now but they wont be able to keep that up.

China has gotten rich off of the exchange rate which they control. As long as other countries let them do that it looks great for them. Do you think that is going to continue? The USA congress is already had enough and if it wasnt for the present credit crisis the US would have already put up tariffs to correct the difference. They actually have already started on some products with more coming in the future. As China tries to trade with other countries they dont like the controlled currency rate either. They are starting to have problems with their trading partners. Their last ASEAN meeting was very lightly attended by other coutnries. They are not interested in trading at an unfair disadvantage. This problem is only going to grow for China over time. Nations no longer wish to continue this kind of trading with them. If China does not free float their currency other countries are going to tariff them. If they do, there goes their advantage they have had the last 10-20 years. The value of the RMB will go down, not up. If you go to other Asian countries it is very very difficult to exchange the RMB with out paying a high premium on the exchange. I had a friend who could not exchange his RMB in Vietnam. The banks there wouldn't take it. He brought it back to China where I exchanged it for him for USD, which the Vietnamese will gladly take.

China's stock market looks real good because China has been flooding its economy with cheap loans. Do the Chinese go out and buy goods? No, they save it or invest it. This has been causing the markets, real estate, investments to record double digit gains. (Does this sound familiar to anyone??) Expect the bubble to burst at some time in the future. Wonder by then if the USA will give loans to China, wouldnt that be a switch. I could speak more but this should give you a broad range of where this is going.
  • #53
  • Nov 29, 2009 4:27am Nov 29, 2009 4:27am
Quoting InfinitySL
No, actually I referenced his assets at the end of 2007, and his assets at the end of 2008. They did not go down 30%. Learn how to read an annual report before making statements that are demonstrably false.
Bullshit!

And telling some learn how to read, makes you look like the muppet you are.
  • #54
  • Nov 29, 2009 4:51am Nov 29, 2009 4:51am
The guy said manufacturing is moving to China, which is true.

NanjingBob spiel on Chinawas simply unrelated to the post. It talked about managing 1.3 billion people, growing food, car/parking and on currency manipulation.

I believe it is possible to manage 1.3bn. The Indians are doing just that and they have a parliamentary democracy and the dying throes of fundamentalist Islam on their western border and another talmost simialr on their eastern border. Total population of 1bn +200m on the west +250m on their east.

The Chinese and the Indians are growing enough food to feed their populations. However, millions in India and thousands in China are starving.

Cars are a problem in China and Beijing is a giant parking lot. However, the People's Govt. is planning to build a network of highways modelled after the US Federal higways built in the 50s, that revolutionized transport in America.
In addition, there are a 100 subway projects all over China and there are a plans for high-speed rail between big cities.

Currency peg is not such a problem in my view. At the moment we are benefiaciaries of cheap verything made in China and we'd want that not to change. China is going to be a net importer in the next decade when the surplus are going to reverse and turn to deficits.
China vs. the ASEAN - all of the ASEAN states have pegged their money to the greenback like China has, so there's nothing anyone has to complain about.
Same with the Japanese who are always intervening in the fx market and the Koreans have escaped attention because of the 2 giants (Japan & China) but they are also pegged to the dollar. The Korean Won has been in the 1200 range for over 7 years.
  • #55
  • Nov 29, 2009 3:03pm Nov 29, 2009 3:03pm
So, in China there's few streets to drive on, very little to no parking, and soon gas will run out - yet people keep buying cars??? Sounds like a good investment to me!
  • #56
  • Nov 29, 2009 3:10pm Nov 29, 2009 3:10pm
Here you go....the best investment is........................IN YOURSELF!

If you don't believe in yourself. You can invest a minimum of $5,000,000 in me! PM me for details!
Serious inquiries only.
  • #57
  • Nov 29, 2009 4:37pm Nov 29, 2009 4:37pm
The guy said manufacturing is moving to China, which is true.

NanjingBob spiel on Chinawas simply unrelated to the post. It talked about managing 1.3 billion people, growing food, car/parking and on currency manipulation.

Really???????
Page 1 Post 1 quote "Post your opinion and the reasons.
My choice is RMB. Its not freely tradeable but I believe the currency will give amazing returns over 5 years."
Page 1 Post 3 quote "The Chinese automobile market is at a stage that is comparable to the number of people who owned automobiles in the United States at around the year 1915. Only about 10-15% of all Chinese citizens own a car."

I believe it is possible to manage 1.3bn. The Indians are doing just that and they have a parliamentary democracy and the dying throes of fundamentalist Islam on their western border and another talmost simialr on their eastern border. Total population of 1bn +200m on the west +250m on their east.

Like I said Most people have no idea what it takes to manage this many people and the problems it causes. My question is very valid, "Where are they going to park all these cars you think they are going to buy?? You remind me of the people still buying houses from 2004-06. The market is saturated: 3 reasons
1. There is no space to park the cars that are already bought. Building more roads does not solve this problem.
2. Most of the people who are middle class have already purchased a car
3. Nations are going to finally stop trading with China until it stops manipulating its currency exchange rate. If you dont understand exchange rates with the price of goods and the transfer of wealth from one nation to another, I guess you will not understand the consequences of upcoming changes in an open market place.

The Chinese and the Indians are growing enough food to feed their populations. However, millions in India and thousands in China are starving.

Cars are a problem in China and Beijing is a giant parking lot. However, the People's Govt. is planning to build a network of highways modelled after the US Federal higways built in the 50s, that revolutionized transport in America.
In addition, there are a 100 subway projects all over China and there are a plans for high-speed rail between big cities.

Non of this solves the problem of where do you park the cars that are bought.

Currency peg is not such a problem in my view.
Fatal thinking, especially if you want to invest in China. It is a major problem and is getting bigger.
At the moment we are benefiaciaries of cheap verything made in China and we'd want that not to change.
"No we are not beneficiaries, There is a major transfer of US wealth to China mainly caused by the exchange rate. The attitude developing in the USA and elsewhere around the world is, "China we are not going to play this game much longer. Time to adjust."
China is going to be a net importer in the next decade when the surplus are going to reverse and turn to deficits.
China vs. the ASEAN - all of the ASEAN states have pegged their money to the greenback like China has, so there's nothing anyone has to complain about.
BZZZZZZZZ Wrong. Other ASEAN countries currencies can be bought on the FX market. Not commonly trade but it can be done. China's RMB cannot.
Same with the Japanese who are always intervening in the fx market and the Koreans have escaped attention because of the 2 giants (Japan & China) but they are also pegged to the dollar. The Korean Won has been in the 1200 range for over 7 years.
Banks intervening is common practice around the world, even US govt. banks, businesses will buy or sell dollars at times to prop up the dollar. The Govt. issues statements, changes interest rates, etc. to do this. That is not the same as deliberately setting an exchange rate to keep your products cheaper than everyone else so the flow of wealth goes one direction. Your comparisons and statements show a completely lack of understanding of basic economics.

Bottom line, keep your money in the bank guy, you are clearly not ready to be investing in China. The wealth of China is held by govt. not the people, you cannot make the same assumptions in trading as you do in other countries. When a govt. official says banks cut your loan making the money going into their markets dries up. When he says increase your loan making they go nuts. It is a reality that if you ignore you are going to lose a lot of money very quickly. For those thinking of investing in car companies, the market is reaching saturation, there is no more room to park these new cars in the cities. Those that have bought cars in the last 7 years are now thinking of selling them. The used car market is where the next explosion will happen. Those that cant afford new cars will start buying the used ones. In the past there has been no market for used cars because they didnt exist. They are now just beginning to hit the market. That will be a great growth industry if there is a way to invest in it.
  • #58
  • Nov 30, 2009 12:02am Nov 30, 2009 12:02am
Quoting nanningbob
My question is very valid, "Where are they going to park all these cars you think they are going to buy??
Ever hear of parking lots?
Underground, multi-storey parking lots and others. What's the problem?

Quoting nanningbob
Nations are going to finally stop trading with China until it stops manipulating its currency exchange rate. If you dont understand exchange rates with the price of goods and the transfer of wealth from one nation to another, I guess you will not understand the consequences of upcoming changes in an open market place.

It's not so simple. Many countries are manipulating currencies (Japan, Korea) and trade goes on.
Try not to start with "if you do not understand", because even if you are right, the person will not agree with you when you start with that shit.

Quoting nanningbob
No we are not beneficiaries, There is a major transfer of US wealth to China mainly caused by the exchange rate. The attitude developing in the USA and elsewhere around the world is, "China we are not going to play this game much longer. Time to adjust."
Again, it's not so simple.
I would rather pay what I am paying for all those things at Walmart that are made in China than pay more because they are made in the USA or elsewhere. That is a benefit to the consumer, to the Walmart and others.

Transfer of wealth is a croc. Mostly held by fat, uncompetitive Americans hanging onto the good book, a gun, poor credit and a hamburger.

Quoting nanningbob
BZZZZZZZZ Wrong. Other ASEAN countries currencies can be bought on the FX market. Not commonly trade but it can be done. China's RMB cannot.
BZZZ, yes you can.

You seem not to know the difference between freely tradeable (which the ASEAN currencies are and Chinese Yuan is not) and peg/control (which the Yuan, Singapore Dollar, Malaysian Ringgit, Bruniean Dollar and others are).

Quoting nanningbob
Banks intervening is common practice around the world, even US govt. banks, businesses will buy or sell dollars at times to prop up the dollar. The Govt. issues statements, changes interest rates, etc. to do this. That is not the same as deliberately setting an exchange rate to keep your products cheaper than everyone else so the flow of wealth goes one direction. Your comparisons and statements show a completely lack of understanding of basic economics.
There are accords, Brentwoods, strong-dollar whatever. But the FED has not intervened because it went to 1.55 to the Euro etc.

Interest rates NOT are revised to prop up dollar. It has an effect on the dollar. You seem to be lost wiith "cause and effect".

If we go with your theory of cheap Yuan to export goods to the world, imports into China would be expensive, yes?
So, how does it help them if they pay more to buy something (raw materials) from the rest of the world, work for $10/day to make a finished product and sell it back to the rest of the world on the cheap?

Seems to me, your statements show a complete lack on understanding of basic economics.

Quoting nanningbob
Bottom line, keep your money in the bank guy, you are clearly not ready to be investing in China. The wealth of China is held by govt. not the people, you cannot make the same assumptions in trading as you do in other countries.
You sound like an idiot dishing out unwanted "bottom lines".

You may not be ready to invest in China or perhaps anywhere. What if your bank goes under? Do you keep it under your mattress? What if your shack goes up in flames? What if your insurer goes under?

If you are really are in China, you must be new and if you are not, you must be the loser that Chinese are sure to distinguish from Americans.
  • #59
  • Nov 30, 2009 2:14am Nov 30, 2009 2:14am
Quoting pounce
Qing up 11% on very good volume (4 times yesterday's) on no news at mid-day on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
Qingling up 10% today. All automakers in China did great.
  • #60
  • Nov 30, 2009 2:19am Nov 30, 2009 2:19am
Quoting pounce
I recently sold Kingsoft another game-making software company. It had all my criteria going for it -...
Came out with earnings on Friday and it crashed 15% compounded by the general doom of the Dubai non-event. The eranings sucked, Citibank were right and Kingsoft the mofos that put out a statement to counter Citibank, lied.

Today, Monday, it crashed another 5% when the market is up 3.5%

I wonder if there's a class action lawsuit that I can pursue these lying scumbags with.
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