nice short ....we could be in the long zone here , just keep close eye on charts
Seems to be finding support here all right,
Moved sl +1 and let it run, see what happens.
Thanks Temps...
Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)
- #207,222
- Nov 9, 2009 9:51am Nov 9, 2009 9:51am
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 11,838 Posts
Trading Levels with WRBs
- #207,223
- Nov 9, 2009 10:29am Nov 9, 2009 10:29am
- Joined May 2008 | Status: has long shorts | 2,584 Posts
- #207,227
- Nov 9, 2009 1:07pm Nov 9, 2009 1:07pm
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: HARD SHYT SCUBA TRADER | 20,886 Posts
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
- #207,228
- Nov 9, 2009 1:16pm Nov 9, 2009 1:16pm
- | Membership Revoked | Joined May 2008 | 3,395 Posts
The Market pays you to be disciplined
- #207,229
- Edited 1:40pm Nov 9, 2009 1:28pm | Edited 1:40pm
- | Joined Oct 2008 | Status: Trader | 1,666 Posts
- #207,231
- Nov 9, 2009 1:50pm Nov 9, 2009 1:50pm
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: HARD SHYT SCUBA TRADER | 20,886 Posts
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
- #207,232
- Nov 9, 2009 2:18pm Nov 9, 2009 2:18pm
- Joined Oct 2005 | Status: Trader | 3,596 Posts
I am glad someone is talking about the government BS..
Here is an article I am reading now what the government is doing..'
Massive Revolutionary Changes
by Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D.
As it turned out, the crisis was not less severe than we expected. Nor was it as severe as expected. Rather, the crisis was actually more severe — for two reasons.
First, in addition to the companies that we named as candidates for failure, several other giant companies that we had not named also went bankrupt or required a bailout.
The failed Wall Street firms included not only Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, but also Merrill Lynch.
The failed commercial banks included not only Citigroup, but also Bank of America.
The bankrupt institutions were not only in the U.S., but also in the U.K., Germany, and even Switzerland — Royal Bank of Scotland; IKB and Hypo Real Estate in Germany; and UBS in Switzerland.
They included not only banks and brokerage firms, but also the largest single insurance company in America, AIG.
But whether we named them ahead of time or not, the salient fact is that, in nearly every major financial industry — commercial banking, investment banking, consumer banking, brokerage, mortgage lending, and insurance — the companies that failed, or almost failed, were not small- or medium-sized. They weren't the third largest or fourth largest. They were the single largest in the world.
Think about that: The world's largest companies in every single sector of the financial industry. Failed. Bankrupt.
Now, fast-forward to today, November 7, 2009. Suddenly and miraculously, the same economists who told you this crisis could never happen are now telling you that this crisis is "over." And the same government officials who scoffed at the notion of giant financial failures are claiming they have the final solution to those failures.
But the derivatives we warned you about are not gone. They are still there. Nor are the bad debts on the books of major banks. And most important, the government policies which created the crisis in the first place have not been modified or reduced. They have actually been accelerated, as we'll demonstrate in a moment.
And therein lies the second reason the crisis is actually worse than we expected. With its deliberate policies, the U.S. government, along with governments here in Europe, have now transformed the Wall Street debt crisis into the Washington debt crisis.
They have transformed a crisis that was bankrupting individual institutions into a crisis that could threaten to bankrupt sovereign governments. Worst of all, they have converted a crisis of debt into a crisis of our currency.
This chart shows the monetary base of the United States. It represents the most basic form of money supply — cash currency in the coffers of U.S. banks plus their total reserves.
As long as this basic measure of money supply is growing at a moderate pace, you can generally expect stability in the U.S. dollar, gold, and other markets. There will be ups and downs, of course, and sometimes, due to other global events, those ups and downs could be sharp. But they will not turn the world upside down.
Indeed, this had been the pattern since World War II: relatively moderate expansion. Up until September of last year, when Lehman Brothers failed, it took the U.S. Federal Reserve a total of 5,012 days to double this measure.
But then, look what happened: Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke doubled the U.S. monetary base in 112 days. Not in 5,012 days as his predecessors had done — but in a meager 112 days! He accelerated the pace of bank reserve expansion by a factor of 45 to 1.
Imagine a crowded highway with most cars traveling at an average speed of 100 km per hour. Then imagine a new driver appearing on the scene with a jet-powered engine that accelerates to a supersonic speed of 4,500 km per hour. That's the same magnitude of change Fed Chairman Bernanke has presided over.
Ladies and gentlemen, this is not just more of the same trend that we have witnessed over the decades. It's a massive, revolutionary change in the entire structure of the U.S. economy.
Even in the most extreme circumstances of history, the Fed never pumped in this much money in such a short period of time.
For example, before the turn of the millennium, the Fed was afraid of a computer catastrophe at the banks caused by the widely publicized Y2K bug. So it rushed to provide liquidity to U.S. banks and increased the monetary base by $73 billion in three months. At the time, that was considered huge. But this time, Mr. Bernanke has increased the monetary base by over $1 trillion, or 14 times more!
Here's another example: In the days following the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, the Federal Reserve rushed to flood the banks with liquid funds. That time, it added $40 billion in less than 14 days. However, Mr. Bernanke's recent trillion-dollar deluge of money is twenty five times larger.
Here's the most astounding fact of all: After the Y2K and 9/11 crises had passed, the Fed promptly reversed its money infusions. It pulled out the extra liquidity from the banking system.
But this time, Mr. Bernanke has done precisely the opposite. Since he doubled the currency and reserves at the nation's banks with his 112-day money-printing frenzy in late 2008, he has thrown still more money into the pot. And late last month, the monetary base surged to new, all-time highs.
Ladies and gentlemen, this is not just more of the same trend that we have witnessed over the decades. It's a massive, revolutionary change in the entire structure of the U.S. economy.
This is the elephant in the room — the situation that everyone knows is there, but no one wants to admit.
Now, let's take a look at this same elephant from another perspective — the largest federal budget deficits in the history of mankind.
If the U.S. federal deficit were growing by 20 percent, 30 percent, or even as much as 50 percent, the pundits could have argued that it was just the continuation of a long-term trend, that it was simply more of the same.
But just in the last 12 months, the U.S. federal deficit has exploded from $454.8 billion in fiscal 2008 to $1.4 trillion in fiscal 2009. It has tripled in size in just one year's time.
I repeat: This is not just more of the same trend that we have witnessed over the decades. It's a massive, revolutionary change in the entire structure of the U.S. economy ... and it's totally unprecedented in history.
Now let's turn to the consequences of these events — first, the intended consequences and then some of the unintended consequences.
Consequence #1 is a recovery in the U.S. economy. When the government creates that much monetary and fiscal stimulus, it naturally has some impact, of course. That's why a recovery is now under way and why it is likely to continue for a few more quarters.
Consequence #2 is the rally in the U.S. stock market. Again, when so much liquidity is pumped into the economy, it's only natural that some of it would flow into equities.
Consequence #3 is a recovery in emerging markets. Here, unlike the U.S. and other Western economies, not only are the economies benefiting from government stimulus, but they are also benefiting from strong domestic fundamental growth factors.
Consequence #4 is the decline of the U.S. dollar. The greenback is falling against the euro and virtually every major currency on the planet, and it will probably continue to do so. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, is now nearing its lowest level in history. Once that level breaks, the pace of the dollar's decline could accelerate sharply.
Consequence #5 is the decline in the value of paper money as a whole, and the parallel rise in gold. Friday, gold pierced the $1,100 per-ounce level. Next, despite any intermediate setbacks, it could rise to $1,300.
Consequence #6 is rising interest rates. Yes, the Federal Reserve can hold its official short-term interest rates near zero, and this is precisely what it's doing. But the Fed does not exert the same control over long-term interest rates. Nor can it control foreign central banks, some of which are beginning to raise interest rates. And most important, the U.S. government cannot control foreign investors who now own over half of the publicly traded U.S. government securities.
Meanwhile, the forces driving long-term interest rates higher are powerful and enormous — the same forces we told you about earlier: massive monetary inflation and equally massive federal deficits.
Consequence #7 is an anemic U.S. economy overall, weighed down by high unemployment, low spending, and most important, the largest debts of all time. Don't expect this recovery to last very long. A second recession could come quickly on its heels.
I am often asked: Is the recession over? My answer is "yes."
But to the more important question — is America's long-term depression over? — my answer is a firm "no." In the years ahead, we're likely to see a series of longer-than-usual recessions interrupted by shorter-than-normal recoveries, all adding up to a long depression.
Here is an article I am reading now what the government is doing..'
Massive Revolutionary Changes
by Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D.
As it turned out, the crisis was not less severe than we expected. Nor was it as severe as expected. Rather, the crisis was actually more severe — for two reasons.
First, in addition to the companies that we named as candidates for failure, several other giant companies that we had not named also went bankrupt or required a bailout.
The failed Wall Street firms included not only Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, but also Merrill Lynch.
The failed commercial banks included not only Citigroup, but also Bank of America.
The bankrupt institutions were not only in the U.S., but also in the U.K., Germany, and even Switzerland — Royal Bank of Scotland; IKB and Hypo Real Estate in Germany; and UBS in Switzerland.
They included not only banks and brokerage firms, but also the largest single insurance company in America, AIG.
But whether we named them ahead of time or not, the salient fact is that, in nearly every major financial industry — commercial banking, investment banking, consumer banking, brokerage, mortgage lending, and insurance — the companies that failed, or almost failed, were not small- or medium-sized. They weren't the third largest or fourth largest. They were the single largest in the world.
Think about that: The world's largest companies in every single sector of the financial industry. Failed. Bankrupt.
Now, fast-forward to today, November 7, 2009. Suddenly and miraculously, the same economists who told you this crisis could never happen are now telling you that this crisis is "over." And the same government officials who scoffed at the notion of giant financial failures are claiming they have the final solution to those failures.
But the derivatives we warned you about are not gone. They are still there. Nor are the bad debts on the books of major banks. And most important, the government policies which created the crisis in the first place have not been modified or reduced. They have actually been accelerated, as we'll demonstrate in a moment.
And therein lies the second reason the crisis is actually worse than we expected. With its deliberate policies, the U.S. government, along with governments here in Europe, have now transformed the Wall Street debt crisis into the Washington debt crisis.
They have transformed a crisis that was bankrupting individual institutions into a crisis that could threaten to bankrupt sovereign governments. Worst of all, they have converted a crisis of debt into a crisis of our currency.
This chart shows the monetary base of the United States. It represents the most basic form of money supply — cash currency in the coffers of U.S. banks plus their total reserves.
As long as this basic measure of money supply is growing at a moderate pace, you can generally expect stability in the U.S. dollar, gold, and other markets. There will be ups and downs, of course, and sometimes, due to other global events, those ups and downs could be sharp. But they will not turn the world upside down.
Indeed, this had been the pattern since World War II: relatively moderate expansion. Up until September of last year, when Lehman Brothers failed, it took the U.S. Federal Reserve a total of 5,012 days to double this measure.
But then, look what happened: Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke doubled the U.S. monetary base in 112 days. Not in 5,012 days as his predecessors had done — but in a meager 112 days! He accelerated the pace of bank reserve expansion by a factor of 45 to 1.
Imagine a crowded highway with most cars traveling at an average speed of 100 km per hour. Then imagine a new driver appearing on the scene with a jet-powered engine that accelerates to a supersonic speed of 4,500 km per hour. That's the same magnitude of change Fed Chairman Bernanke has presided over.
Ladies and gentlemen, this is not just more of the same trend that we have witnessed over the decades. It's a massive, revolutionary change in the entire structure of the U.S. economy.
Even in the most extreme circumstances of history, the Fed never pumped in this much money in such a short period of time.
For example, before the turn of the millennium, the Fed was afraid of a computer catastrophe at the banks caused by the widely publicized Y2K bug. So it rushed to provide liquidity to U.S. banks and increased the monetary base by $73 billion in three months. At the time, that was considered huge. But this time, Mr. Bernanke has increased the monetary base by over $1 trillion, or 14 times more!
Here's another example: In the days following the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, the Federal Reserve rushed to flood the banks with liquid funds. That time, it added $40 billion in less than 14 days. However, Mr. Bernanke's recent trillion-dollar deluge of money is twenty five times larger.
Here's the most astounding fact of all: After the Y2K and 9/11 crises had passed, the Fed promptly reversed its money infusions. It pulled out the extra liquidity from the banking system.
But this time, Mr. Bernanke has done precisely the opposite. Since he doubled the currency and reserves at the nation's banks with his 112-day money-printing frenzy in late 2008, he has thrown still more money into the pot. And late last month, the monetary base surged to new, all-time highs.
Ladies and gentlemen, this is not just more of the same trend that we have witnessed over the decades. It's a massive, revolutionary change in the entire structure of the U.S. economy.
This is the elephant in the room — the situation that everyone knows is there, but no one wants to admit.
Now, let's take a look at this same elephant from another perspective — the largest federal budget deficits in the history of mankind.
If the U.S. federal deficit were growing by 20 percent, 30 percent, or even as much as 50 percent, the pundits could have argued that it was just the continuation of a long-term trend, that it was simply more of the same.
But just in the last 12 months, the U.S. federal deficit has exploded from $454.8 billion in fiscal 2008 to $1.4 trillion in fiscal 2009. It has tripled in size in just one year's time.
I repeat: This is not just more of the same trend that we have witnessed over the decades. It's a massive, revolutionary change in the entire structure of the U.S. economy ... and it's totally unprecedented in history.
Now let's turn to the consequences of these events — first, the intended consequences and then some of the unintended consequences.
Consequence #1 is a recovery in the U.S. economy. When the government creates that much monetary and fiscal stimulus, it naturally has some impact, of course. That's why a recovery is now under way and why it is likely to continue for a few more quarters.
Consequence #2 is the rally in the U.S. stock market. Again, when so much liquidity is pumped into the economy, it's only natural that some of it would flow into equities.
Consequence #3 is a recovery in emerging markets. Here, unlike the U.S. and other Western economies, not only are the economies benefiting from government stimulus, but they are also benefiting from strong domestic fundamental growth factors.
Consequence #4 is the decline of the U.S. dollar. The greenback is falling against the euro and virtually every major currency on the planet, and it will probably continue to do so. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, is now nearing its lowest level in history. Once that level breaks, the pace of the dollar's decline could accelerate sharply.
Consequence #5 is the decline in the value of paper money as a whole, and the parallel rise in gold. Friday, gold pierced the $1,100 per-ounce level. Next, despite any intermediate setbacks, it could rise to $1,300.
Consequence #6 is rising interest rates. Yes, the Federal Reserve can hold its official short-term interest rates near zero, and this is precisely what it's doing. But the Fed does not exert the same control over long-term interest rates. Nor can it control foreign central banks, some of which are beginning to raise interest rates. And most important, the U.S. government cannot control foreign investors who now own over half of the publicly traded U.S. government securities.
Meanwhile, the forces driving long-term interest rates higher are powerful and enormous — the same forces we told you about earlier: massive monetary inflation and equally massive federal deficits.
Consequence #7 is an anemic U.S. economy overall, weighed down by high unemployment, low spending, and most important, the largest debts of all time. Don't expect this recovery to last very long. A second recession could come quickly on its heels.
I am often asked: Is the recession over? My answer is "yes."
But to the more important question — is America's long-term depression over? — my answer is a firm "no." In the years ahead, we're likely to see a series of longer-than-usual recessions interrupted by shorter-than-normal recoveries, all adding up to a long depression.
total BS ... a year ago they were all crying and now 30 billion in bonuses.
who should they be paying bonuses to ... the frigging tax payers , who bailed out their sorry rear ends , is who .....
If i am NOT mistaken the TARP is still out of pocket ....why the hell are the Governement allowing this.
At least in a communist society like China , cuba or Russia the tax payer knows they are getting raped .. here in the US they do not even know what is going on. Did we see anything on CNBC last week abouve 9 banks going down...
[
- #207,233
- Nov 9, 2009 2:33pm Nov 9, 2009 2:33pm
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: HARD SHYT SCUBA TRADER | 20,886 Posts
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
- #207,234
- Nov 9, 2009 2:40pm Nov 9, 2009 2:40pm
- Joined May 2009 | Status: Re-member | 6,497 Posts
Thanks for your Charts..but I dont use COT Charts...This info is Useful.
Post whenever you can please..Thanks again.
Thanks buddy,
I probably mixed you up with someone else in this forum
Anyways, it's interesting to see how the non-commercial money movers think in real hard cash...
be careful with COT reports when you are trading Forex market..
There is a difference between Futures markets and forex market.
FX market is not regulated.. not centralised, so NOT all BANKS are obligated and listing their positions with COT reports (CME exchange).
COT report are good ONLY when you trade futures.. and you can have some BIAS on some Futures contracts listed with COT...
That is only a Portion from whole Money Market..
Yes, but it is a good indicator when you have a reversal like we did on friday (if it hdnt been for the non farm payroll
).I will also say that if you trade for a longer term it can definetely be useful... as in 3< days important too have an eye on the next COT also (which is 3 days old by the way) released 3.30 pm friday....
For those who are interested here's a link in more detail...
http://www.cotpricecharts.com/commitmentscurrent/
- #207,236
- Nov 9, 2009 3:01pm Nov 9, 2009 3:01pm
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 5,040 Posts
I am glad someone is talking about the government BS..
<cut>
I am often asked: Is the recession over? My answer is "yes."
But to the more important question — is America's long-term depression over? — my answer is a firm "no." In the years ahead, we're likely to see a series of longer-than-usual recessions interrupted by shorter-than-normal recoveries, all adding up to a long depression.
No power, no money. Yes power, yes money, plus yes manipulation
- #207,237
- Edited 3:37pm Nov 9, 2009 3:05pm | Edited 3:37pm
- Joined Oct 2005 | Status: Trader | 3,596 Posts
Hi Malcolmb14,
I am mainly scalping for now to buildup margin and at the moment I have my target at 153.00 if the range breakout for the third time test of the 153.00 resistance zone from the weekly, monthly charts.
This have my double head and shoulder pattern to playout if the 153.00 zone holds..
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=206494
I am mainly scalping for now to buildup margin and at the moment I have my target at 153.00 if the range breakout for the third time test of the 153.00 resistance zone from the weekly, monthly charts.
This have my double head and shoulder pattern to playout if the 153.00 zone holds..
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=206494
it is a crime what the BIG MONEY PLAYERS have done to millions of...
[
- #207,238
- Nov 9, 2009 3:13pm Nov 9, 2009 3:13pm
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: HARD SHYT SCUBA TRADER | 20,886 Posts
same as you 152.50 then 153.50 ....
the volume of money flowing into the US stock market for buys was unreal today...I think we may even breakout of years highs on the s&p yet this week
I had a $10 bet we would see 1095 , that was yesterday at 1070..lol
the volume of money flowing into the US stock market for buys was unreal today...I think we may even breakout of years highs on the s&p yet this week
I had a $10 bet we would see 1095 , that was yesterday at 1070..lol
Hi Malcolmb14,
I am mainly scalping for now to buildup margin and at the moment I have my target at 153.00 if the range breakout for the third time test of the 153.00 resistance zone from the weekly, monthly charts.
This have my double head and shoulder pattern to playout if the 153.00 zone holds..
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=206494
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
- #207,239
- Nov 9, 2009 3:33pm Nov 9, 2009 3:33pm
- Joined Oct 2005 | Status: Trader | 3,596 Posts
Trade the charts without bias..
Well, government has the power, who can against it? :-)
No power, no money. Yes power, yes money, plus yes manipulation
[
- #207,240
- Nov 9, 2009 3:38pm Nov 9, 2009 3:38pm
- Joined Oct 2005 | Status: Trader | 3,596 Posts
Third time is a charm or reversal at 153.00 resistance zone
same as you 152.50 then 153.50 ....
the volume of money flowing into the US stock market for buys was unreal today...I think we may even breakout of years highs on the s&p yet this week
I had a $10 bet we would see 1095 , that was yesterday at 1070..lol
[