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Murrey Math Daily System

  • #421
  • Nov 7, 2009 1:42pm Nov 7, 2009 1:42pm
I try to filter the result of the murrey math stat live with the slope (20.3).
I add the excel file

Quoting olachico
The strategy and the backtest are very interesting.
I think that it's better to put stop loss, take profit and maybe the break even at half of take profit. No trailing stop, because it's bettere in long time to catch bigger movement. And I try to put a fast slope (20.3) like a filter. less movement but in the direction of the trend, always with semi marginale system.

Result of backtest with slope indicator (20.3)...
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls murrey math with slope2.xls   56 KB | 1,335 downloads
  • #422
  • Nov 7, 2009 10:16pm Nov 7, 2009 10:16pm
Tried another big pair in Gbp/Chf. This one made $22,390.04 in 21 trades with one open trade which is at -$752.64. The only thing I did differently was increase the lot size @ .1 lots for every $10K.

Here are the results
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: StrategyTestergbpchf.gif Size: 6 KB
  • #423
  • Nov 8, 2009 7:26am Nov 8, 2009 7:26am
Quoting mer071898
Tried another big pair in Gbp/Chf. This one made $22,390.04 in 21 trades with one open trade which is at -$752.64. The only thing I did differently was increase the lot size @ .1 lots for every $10K.

Here are the results
I only started to demo this system on Oct. 25th and I'm being selective not to enter any trades that have breached and gone beyond 1/2 way plus no trades with SL over 300 pips. With these guidelines, leaving the trade open till it stops out or hits the target seems to be much more profitable. 526 pips vs well over 800 pips. I don't have the final count of pips yet because some trades are still active. I'll keep trading it this way to see how it does.
  • #424
  • Nov 8, 2009 7:55am Nov 8, 2009 7:55am
Quoting mer071898
With regards to lot sizes, it is up to your discretion. I follow this guideline:

 

  1. If your profit target is the 4/8, 2/8, 6/8 0/8, or 8/8 = Use smaller lots as price will have more support and Resistance around these points and are more prone to reversals.

  1. If your profit target is the 1/8, 7/8, 3/8, or 5/8 = Use larger lots as price will have less support and Resistance around these points and are less prone to reversals.

[center]Important

[left][list][*][size=2]Only look for long...

Very well put.
  • #425
  • Nov 8, 2009 2:16pm Nov 8, 2009 2:16pm
is it possible to use stealth ea with the tester or i will be only waiting for hard SL or the TP to be hit ?
  • #426
  • Nov 8, 2009 4:56pm Nov 8, 2009 4:56pm
Unfortunately the EA does not work in the trading simulator nor does it let me put in more than one trade at a time, which stinks, but you work with what you have. I'm going to reset my demo account and start trading with a hard stoploss and target and we'll see how that works out.
  • #427
  • Nov 8, 2009 5:45pm Nov 8, 2009 5:45pm
why would you do that when youre getting some very good results with the method that you posted? i just started looking into that system but considering the r;r ratio which is often very poor, the trailing ea would be of great use right or no ?
  • #428
  • Nov 8, 2009 7:54pm Nov 8, 2009 7:54pm
Hello Feline207,

I believe Mer is only making this system lesser drawdown. I think it is a very wise decision. Yes this system is really promising and making it better profit wise is smart.


Quoting feline207
why would you do that when youre getting some very good results with the method that you posted? i just started looking into that system but considering the r;r ratio which is often very poor, the trailing ea would be of great use right or no ?
  • #429
  • Nov 8, 2009 9:32pm Nov 8, 2009 9:32pm
Quote
why would you do that when youre getting some very good results with the method that you posted? i just started looking into that system but considering the r;r ratio which is often very poor, the trailing ea would be of great use right or no ?
Again, that is the nice thing about demoing a new system, you can test it out in numerous variations to find what works best. Yes, the original strategy works great, but there were numerous times where the trades were closed out at the BES where if I were to let them run their course, they would've closed at their target. I'm just going to see if there is any benefit to trading it this way, but please use the trail step if you so desire.
  • #430
  • Edited Nov 9, 2009 5:13pm Nov 8, 2009 11:13pm | Edited Nov 9, 2009 5:13pm
This is how I will enter the trades on the new strategy. Using the same rules as the original strategy, we will open a trade on the breach of the Murrey Level. A set Target and stoploss will be put into the Stealth EA with the BE set to the same value as the Target, since it will not be utilized, and the TrailStep set to false. The same rules apply to the 0/8 and 8/8 and beyond where we will not take trades below these points, only if the prices breaches back through the level in the opposite direction.

Since I have added more pairs to the mix, I will be reducing my lot size to .1 lots per trade and increasing it by .01 lots for every $10K in profit added to the account. If a trade incurs a loss, we will still double up on the lots until we recoup our loss we just took.

I also will be cautious trading any pair whose Average Daily Range is greater than the distance between Murrey Levels. This can filter out a few trades that may not as desirable as we'd want, but is just an option. This is another option as well, you could also limit your trades to pairs that will produce positive swap for that particular trade, but that is up to the trader. We should be looking at 5-8 trades per pair, per month.
  • #431
  • Nov 9, 2009 12:38am Nov 9, 2009 12:38am
have you considered the increasing of bets not by lot size but by risk percentage?
Example:
First trade 0.5 %
Next 1.0 %
Next 1.5 %

This could smoothen the equity curve and the drawdowns with it.
42
  • #432
  • Nov 9, 2009 4:06am Nov 9, 2009 4:06am
ok now i understand you. the system seems great and i am running it on a demo but i have another friendly question to ask. i enjoy applying martingale to systems but here in our case the tp,sl and of course the point at which we close a bad trade are not consstant values and the pips that we could win are often less than the pips that we could potentially lose. so there is a possibility of a situation in which the next order with lot multiplier of 2 wouldnt be able to recoup all of the losses. i may be wrong cause i just got out of bed and my brain is still sleeping so please correct me
  • #433
  • Edited 11:23am Nov 9, 2009 10:47am | Edited 11:23am
and what is the maximum number of consecutive losses(bad trades) that you have experienced with this type of trading ? i got 4 consecutive bad trades on eurusd ( for the 3rd one i am not very sure because there was some problem with the simulator) . have you ever experienced more than 4 in a row? another thing - which pairs do you consider to be the best to trade with the system, because all 23 pairs are too much for me and i want to pick just 3 or 4 , max 5 pairs to trade..
  • #434
  • Nov 9, 2009 12:49pm Nov 9, 2009 12:49pm
Quote
have you considered the increasing of bets not by lot size but by risk percentage?
Example:
First trade 0.5 %
Next 1.0 %
Next 1.5 %

This could smoothen the equity curve and the drawdowns with it.
Good idea and I'm sure any solid MM will work, but with watching 24 pairs and having to double up on losses, this will be the simplest way so everyone could follow. Having to calculate the lots on a percentage of the account would just take up more time.
Quote
so there is a possibility of a situation in which the next order with lot multiplier of 2 wouldnt be able to recoup all of the losses. i may be wrong cause i just got out of bed and my brain is still sleeping so please correct me

and what is the maximum number of consecutive losses(bad trades) that you have experienced with this type of trading ? i got 4 consecutive bad trades on eurusd ( for the 3rd one i am not very sure because there was some problem with the simulator) . have you ever experienced more than 4 in a row? another thing - which...
We don't just double up for one trade after the loss, we let it stay at that lot size until that loss is fully recouped. If that takes 2 or 3 trades to accomplish the task, then that is what we do.

Of the pairs I have experienced in testing, I've ran into 5 losses once and 4 losses a couple of times. I think the best pairs are the ones with the highest Average Daily range like GBP/JPY, GBP/CHF, GBP/NZD, GBP/CAD, and maybe a few others. Keep in mind that with the second strategy you will not have as many trades so it would be best to try and watch as many pairs as you can comfortably handle.
  • #435
  • Nov 9, 2009 2:07pm Nov 9, 2009 2:07pm
well that means that you should keep additional track on your exact current state (profit/loss) for each pair, because you will be trading more than 20 different currency pairs and you may be losing on one or two pairs and still make profit , because of others. and what happens if you have losses on different pairs and you have doubled the lots on many of them or even doubled again after that ? it could result in a very large ammount of open orders . am i right or wrong here ? maybe i have misunderstood something. lets assume that you trade 20-something pairs and you take a 1.0 lot trade with a 200 pip loss on one of them. then you double to 2.0 lots and take additional loss 150 pips (around 5000$ loss total). then you double again to 4 lots and trade for a 100 pips profit which would be like 4000$ profit (you are still at minus 1000 from the previous trades on that pair) so you enter again at 4.0 to make some more profit but then you lose again 150 pips (6000$ / 7000$ in total until now) then you should double again at 8 lots and look to compensate the losses ? am i getting it right because i seriously doubt so, i am sorry if i have misunderstood the concept. i just cannot imagine how one could trade more than 20 pairs this way with normal lot sizes. im just curious how exactly do you manage the whole float of money with the many different running orders. thanks
  • #436
  • Nov 9, 2009 5:03pm Nov 9, 2009 5:03pm
Quote
well that means that you should keep additional track on your exact current state (profit/loss) for each pair, because you will be trading more than 20 different currency pairs and you may be losing on one or two pairs and still make profit , because of others. and what happens if you have losses on different pairs and you have doubled the lots on many of them or even doubled again after that ? it could result in a very large ammount of open orders . am i right or wrong here ? maybe i have misunderstood something. lets assume that you trade 20-something...

Well, first off, I'm only starting with .1 lots per trade now, not 1 full lot. And the reason for that is exactly what you described, to be more mindful of numerous trades and the possibilities of having to double up on the losses with multiple trades and to control the margin more efficiently. And yes, I double up on a loss if I haven't recouped the loss completely because very rarely will you run into a situation where you will need to go 4 or 5 double ups. Even doubling up 5 times starting with .1 lots is only 1.6 lots (.1, .2, .4, .8, 1.6), and on a $100K account, that is pretty insignificant.
  • #437
  • Nov 10, 2009 5:12am Nov 10, 2009 5:12am
ok you answered my questions. what you said of course means that one will need a big account to trade this system live thank you very much and i am happy with the system so i am testing it in 2 different ways right now. so in a conclusion - can this system be profitable without applyin some martinagle to it ?
  • #438
  • Nov 10, 2009 8:15am Nov 10, 2009 8:15am
can it be use in the lower time frame like 1 hour .
  • #439
  • Nov 10, 2009 3:51pm Nov 10, 2009 3:51pm
Quote
ok you answered my questions. what you said of course means that one will need a big account to trade this system live thank you very much and i am happy with the system so i am testing it in 2 different ways right now. so in a conclusion - can this system be profitable without applyin some martinagle to it ?

You don't have to have a really huge account to trade this. It's all depends on how many pairs you want to trade and the risk you want to accept. It's always beneficial to have a decent account size so the risk is less per trade, but it's not a requirement. You can be profitable without any martingale approach, it just may take a little longer to build the account. Remember you don't have to double up on a loss, you could always go from 1 lot to 1.1 lots or say .5 lots to .7 lots. Just move it up in small increments until you make up your loss then go back to your original lot size. What I do is not set in stone so experiment what works best for you.

Quote
can it be use in the lower time frame like 1 hour

Yes, it can be used in any time frame, but you have to be careful in the lower timeframes due to heavier whipsaw action and news spikes. Check with fed, I believe he has incorporated this into a 1 hour strategy.
  • #440
  • Nov 10, 2009 8:31pm Nov 10, 2009 8:31pm
Quoting arbina
can it be use in the lower time frame like 1 hour .
1hr strategy I am still testing. this is my 2nd week with it, it is too early for me to commit something. I will open a thread when I am confi with it. I am having a heck of a time trading MM lines. Last week it was my first week and I made close to 2000 pips. This week I am up about 300 pips, but I am holding the trades longer so I still have some more pips coming in to my account. MM lines works not only with trending market but also ranging markets. I am also having high wining % about more then 90%. I hope it continues.
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