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Silent Service Method

  • #5,641
  • Nov 4, 2009 4:48am Nov 4, 2009 4:48am
Quoting Low
Chris,

I have to ask about gold. The divergence is killing me. Bearish on the monthly, weekly and daily.

And yes, it's trending up, but even though a MACD alone isn't enough reason to take a trade, it definitely provides a good reason not to.

What's your justification in consideration of the divergence?

It seems to me that "one good reason not to" should be all we need to eliminate less-probable trades, and it would be a "pass" rather than a buy or sell.
To me, divergence won't matter until we get the bearish set up. In my opinion and experience you need both to be worried about it.

Do me a favor, and post some charts.....I will take a look at 'em and try to make sense for ya.
  • #5,642
  • Nov 4, 2009 4:49am Nov 4, 2009 4:49am
Quoting Low
I feel like I should day-trade NFP week, or just turn the computer off and go do something productive.
NFP week can suck a lot of the time.
  • #5,643
  • Nov 4, 2009 4:52am Nov 4, 2009 4:52am
Quoting TheFutureAce
a nice hammer forming on the gbpjpy daily chart.....it is following the morning star( i hope i m correct on the candle terminology) - not so perfect star tough.

CW, can you confirm?
True on the shape, and it's a continuation of the pinbar move up on Oct 7th. I would like to see it a little lower, as the top being a little close to the bottom of that consolidation.....but it's a good "continuation" pin as I call them....good eye.

Chris
  • #5,644
  • Nov 4, 2009 4:53am Nov 4, 2009 4:53am
Quoting aserbfx
Pinbar on german allianz.
off round number 75 euro.
if it breaks it will run to the high of two long candles before, imho.
To be honest, I would think it's possibly worth moving stops to b/e at that point....and seeing if it gives you more. It looks like it wants to go up in the long run......

Anooher alternative is you could take 1/2 profit there, and move to b/e so you know you hank something. Good looking chart.
  • #5,645
  • Nov 4, 2009 6:30am Nov 4, 2009 6:30am
Quote
Pinbar on german allianz.
off round number 75 euro.
if it breaks it will run to the high of two long candles before, imho.

Good chart, i do come here once in a while to sharpen my s/r skills and ur chart is absolutely brilliance. how i wish i have that instrument.

I think ur Long shd be good then i see a retest of the TL to form a classic head and shoulder then a drop!

great!
  • #5,646
  • Nov 4, 2009 7:15am Nov 4, 2009 7:15am
Another article on thestreet.com.....

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10620...ade-forex.html
  • #5,647
  • Nov 4, 2009 8:35am Nov 4, 2009 8:35am
Yo clock!

I now clearly see your point of view. You're severely trading with the MAIN/MAJOR trend. Although I have had a bearish sentiment on GU since beginning of October, I just thought I'd do some counter trades in between. Now that I finally closed my (short term) long positions I now see that the next two levels of high significance with the downtrend are (Area of Resistance) 1.6700 & 1.7050.

So here's my question, would you be looking to short at 1.6700 OR 1.7050?? OR Would you just sit tight and wait to take what the market gives you? Just curious to know your current stand (bias) on the cable.

Thanks.
  • #5,648
  • Nov 4, 2009 9:30am Nov 4, 2009 9:30am
Quoting wh1zz0
Yo clock!

I now clearly see your point of view. You're severely trading with the MAIN/MAJOR trend. Although I have had a bearish sentiment on GU since beginning of October, I just thought I'd do some counter trades in between. Now that I finally closed my (short term) long positions I now see that the next two levels of high significance with the downtrend are (Area of Resistance) 1.6700 & 1.7050.

So here's my question, would you be looking to short at 1.6700 OR 1.7050?? OR Would you just sit tight and wait to take what the market gives you? Just...

I am more likely to short at those levels, but I am waiting to see the bar formations, etc. I see the 1.70 level as key to the whole thing.....if it holds below.....I am always more likely to short.

And assuming we are still under that line - I am more willing to let those shorts run. On a counter-trend trade like you had - you did the correct thing in my opinion: Book your profits. THere is nothing wrong with counter trend, as long as you understand there is going to be a harder fight the longer you let it run.

Hope that made sense.
  • #5,649
  • Nov 4, 2009 9:37am Nov 4, 2009 9:37am
http://i37.tinypic.com/x3fjh4.png
http://i34.tinypic.com/dc53s7.png
http://i38.tinypic.com/28vf0pf.png
  • #5,650
  • Nov 4, 2009 12:16pm Nov 4, 2009 12:16pm
Quoting clockwork71
I am more likely to short at those levels, but I am waiting to see the bar formations, etc. I see the 1.70 level as key to the whole thing.....if it holds below.....I am always more likely to short.

And assuming we are still under that line - I am more willing to let those shorts run. On a counter-trend trade like you had - you did the correct thing in my opinion: Book your profits. THere is nothing wrong with counter trend, as long as you understand there is going to be a harder fight the longer you let it run.

Hope that made sense.

Thanks clock! Your analysis made a whole lot of sense.

Btw, I'm on page 87 of JL's book (started reading today). Been an interesting read I must confess!!!
  • #5,651
  • Nov 4, 2009 2:37pm Nov 4, 2009 2:37pm
So does this mean 1.6600 has held? The price action @ this level sucks. I guess I will just have to find out by shorting it with a tight SL or else I'll never know ..:-s

Would like to hear your thoughts.


@ Low:

I've played this sort of divergence (especially on gold and EU) a whole lot and i ended up with regrets! Truth is it takes a very strong force to turn the trend of EU or GOLD. It's even more risky now that gold is at its highs. Maybe a nice trend line break to the downside + a negative sentiment could do the trick.. But i doubt it.
  • #5,652
  • Nov 4, 2009 3:19pm Nov 4, 2009 3:19pm
I see a lot of bearish price action on this chart, around the 10k range, a major S/R level imho. We can see a BEOB, followed immediately by a 2-bar bearish piercing pattern, followed a few days later by basically a DHLC, and now a bearish PB (or what some may see as an inverted bullish hammer). Could we be seeing the formation of a bearish H&S pattern, or are we just consolidating a bit for the next leg up to 11k? Thoughts, anyone?
BTW, Chris, are you still in that Hasbro short? I am still in my SMN long, which I got into ten days ago now, as my plan contingencies have not been triggered, but am wondering if I am having too much patience with it.
Attached Images
  • #5,653
  • Nov 4, 2009 3:31pm Nov 4, 2009 3:31pm
Quoting Low
http://i37.tinypic.com/x3fjh4.png
http://i34.tinypic.com/dc53s7.png
http://i38.tinypic.com/28vf0pf.png
I can see your concerns once these candles close, but until then.....it does not worry me personally.
  • #5,654
  • Nov 4, 2009 3:34pm Nov 4, 2009 3:34pm
Quoting johnnyonspot
I see a lot of bearish price action on this chart, around the 10k range, a major S/R level imho....

I am out of that trade with something like a 50 cent gain. I moved the stops up a little quick to be honest.....

As for your trade, I assume you are at b/e? I agree with the bearishness. It seems like there could be some bad Juju out there waiting. I was not impressed with the market today at all. It got weak, and quick.
  • #5,655
  • Nov 4, 2009 3:37pm Nov 4, 2009 3:37pm
Quoting wh1zz0
So does this mean 1.6600 has held? The price action @ this level sucks. I guess I will just have to find out by shorting it with a tight SL or else I'll never know ..:-s

Would like to hear your thoughts.


@ Low:

I've played this sort of divergence (especially on gold and EU) a whole lot and i ended up with regrets! Truth is it takes a very strong force to turn the trend of EU or GOLD. It's even more risky now that gold is at its highs. Maybe a nice trend line break to the downside + a negative sentiment could do the trick.. But i doubt...

I agree - crappy price action on GBP/USD. I still am looking for shorts....but hell, there's a pinbar that I wouldn't want to short against here either......
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,656
  • Nov 4, 2009 5:38pm Nov 4, 2009 5:38pm
Quoting clockwork71
I agree - crappy price action on GBP/USD. I still am looking for shorts....but hell, there's a pinbar that I wouldn't want to short against here either......
Thanks for the reply 'bout gold, whizz too.

That gbpusd is irksome isn't it?
In fact, none of my biases have been invalidated or given me entry.
Though I did go long usdcad off of what may be a butterfly pattern. These are still new to me and I'm determined to screw it up.
  • #5,657
  • Nov 4, 2009 5:42pm Nov 4, 2009 5:42pm
Quoting clockwork71
I am out of that trade with something like a 50 cent gain. I moved the stops up a little quick to be honest.....

As for your trade, I assume you are at b/e? I agree with the bearishness. It seems like there could be some bad Juju out there waiting. I was not impressed with the market today at all. It got weak, and quick.
I got in at 10.11 and am up about $0.66. I moved my stop up last night to 9.80 as I view the PA as being in a box between 10.00 and 12.00. Indeed, my plan is to take half the position off at 11.95 and let the remainder run while trailing my stop. I view the PB from today's PA as a continuation signal for a further drop in the market, but like I said, imho some may reasonably see it as a bullish inverse hammer. My vision sees PA forming the right shoulder of a H&S pattern.
  • #5,658
  • Nov 4, 2009 5:43pm Nov 4, 2009 5:43pm
I just noticed, eurjpy or gbpjpy both look inviting.
  • #5,659
  • Edited 8:41am Nov 5, 2009 1:44am | Edited 8:41am
Morning clock!

I went short the pound @ the close of NY yesterday since the 1.66 level held (so I felt). I closed half earlier on but I think I'll just clean out now as the action is shitty coming close to important news.

What currency pairs are you looking @? P/s: From what just happened after the BOE rates would you say some big bears are still in there? OR would you say 1.6600 is a strong level?
  • #5,660
  • Nov 5, 2009 2:57am Nov 5, 2009 2:57am
Can anyone please recommend what service I could use to have mt4 alerts sent to my cell phone directly (as text message)?


Thanks.
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