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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #11,181
  • Nov 4, 2009 12:12pm Nov 4, 2009 12:12pm
Dear fti
Äfter 3month of live trading i did huge mistake. Loss 40 % . Do you thik that its normall? I was doing about 1% a day and than i just ... crazy...

check ego should br 3X 1%


I trade like this: I see 15M trend and reverses. From 5M and 1M i go to it with 1. When its ok, let it to some 15-30pips... When it is wrong, i dont close it,but add 1. When ok, take first some 10 and than...i close the second.
Is this model ok?

machanical is dangerous and rigid.

It works good, but i have...

no skews is hard ball game.no nimbleness is trading hope. no dance is bias trading.


best you demo first, until you know what you're trading.
  • #11,182
  • Nov 4, 2009 12:14pm Nov 4, 2009 12:14pm
Quoting GEfx
Hi fti, I see you are signed on. Hope you are well!
nope not so good, hit a wall, but struggling along on the project.

will be undisposed for some time.

regards
  • #11,183
  • Nov 4, 2009 12:23pm Nov 4, 2009 12:23pm
Thank you very much fti, yes, now i go only demo... Apologise. I think that i have stupid questions, but 3X1%, it means that normally i should do 3%/day? Regards
  • #11,184
  • Edited 12:46pm Nov 4, 2009 12:32pm | Edited 12:46pm
Quoting Fana
Thank you very much fti, yes, now i go only demo... Apologise. I think that i have stupid questions, but 3X1%, it means that normally i should do 3%/day? Regards
no need apologies Fana.

3% is hard to hold to on high volatility but 40 % is stiff.
lessen expectation some. and the ego need check.
consistency is the key to profitability. Burning the house on one punt , is discouraged. But being human, this scorpions will show from time to time. Tame it or pay for the exuberance.

try polish the dance instead of modelling.

regards

gotta go guys, see you all in a month.
  • #11,185
  • Nov 4, 2009 12:35pm Nov 4, 2009 12:35pm
Thank you great man!
  • #11,186
  • Nov 4, 2009 1:05pm Nov 4, 2009 1:05pm
good to see u around sir ,
hope u well

reminder - rate in 10mins
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #11,187
  • Nov 4, 2009 1:26pm Nov 4, 2009 1:26pm
Quoting MaMood
i have found an interesting document from Carol Osler in an other thread.

It gives a brief desription of the market structure, the participants and gives some ideas of intraday dynamics.
Thanks for the paper and your follow-up posts M!

Shows good insight and perspective.

All the best,
Brent
  • #11,188
  • Nov 4, 2009 5:13pm Nov 4, 2009 5:13pm
Quoting fti
nope not so good, hit a wall, but struggling along on the project.

will be undisposed for some time.

regards
Sorry to hear that, and am hoping you work it out. Will be sending prayers up for you, too.
  • #11,189
  • Nov 4, 2009 9:53pm Nov 4, 2009 9:53pm
Thanks Fti,

I like this motto

no skews is hard ball game.no nimbleness is trading hope. no dance is bias trading.

Best regards,
  • #11,190
  • Nov 5, 2009 6:36am Nov 5, 2009 6:36am
Great day everyone,

Big Figs rates all coming out next 45 minutes, could be a nice directional day, trade well and nimble.
  • #11,191
  • Nov 5, 2009 7:56am Nov 5, 2009 7:56am
Happy trading day to everyone. Some nice PA today so far. I have two long positions in the E/J and am looking for a third soon. Stay focused and be careful. Trichet is still talking. For you CAD traders, Ivey is coming up soon.
  • #11,192
  • Nov 5, 2009 9:16am Nov 5, 2009 9:16am
Quoting pete.alfa
Thanks Fti,

I like this motto

no skews is hard ball game.no nimbleness is trading hope. no dance is bias trading.

Best regards,
Dear Pete,
can u please explain little about the motto, its too tangential for my brain.
luv to loose.....
  • #11,193
  • Nov 5, 2009 9:33am Nov 5, 2009 9:33am
Quoting novicetrader
Dear Pete,
can u please explain little about the motto, its too tangential for my brain.
PLease read the thread then you will understand
  • #11,194
  • Nov 5, 2009 9:49am Nov 5, 2009 9:49am
Market dynamics must be changing, with the Dow flying as it has today, the Dollar has held it's ground in comparison so far, will be interesting to see how the day closes......
  • #11,195
  • Nov 5, 2009 9:57am Nov 5, 2009 9:57am
Quoting auxesis
Market dynamics must be changing, with the Dow flying as it has today, the Dollar has held it's ground in comparison so far, will be interesting to see how the day closes......
I have noticed that too the past few days. Just looks like USD is lagging
  • #11,196
  • Nov 5, 2009 10:00am Nov 5, 2009 10:00am
note taken on bounce @ e/u 4901 area.
  • #11,197
  • Nov 5, 2009 10:03am Nov 5, 2009 10:03am
and gold breaking highs...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #11,198
  • Nov 5, 2009 10:03am Nov 5, 2009 10:03am
Quoting lilpip
note taken on bounce @ e/u 4901 area.
It wants to make a new high, but there may not be anyone left to sell the buck, it if turns and heads south, the Dow could be in big trouble
  • #11,199
  • Edited 12:38pm Nov 5, 2009 10:13am | Edited 12:38pm
Quoting auxesis
It wants to make a new high, but there may not be anyone left to sell the buck, it if turns and heads south, the Dow could be in big trouble
The way the trend is moving If not now maybe later this month as Im trying to build the long sword myself.
Areas of interest for e/u, Im using the center as a generic trend guide and ends as land marks in the battle.
of course we can dance right through them, I pay attention to there last 3 time frames as I would the last 3 bars range on the 5 min. time frame as I look for direction.
this week
5012-27
4754
4625
this month
5118-52
4609
4100
  • #11,200
  • Nov 5, 2009 11:03am Nov 5, 2009 11:03am
Quoting auxesis
Market dynamics must be changing, with the Dow flying as it has today, the Dollar has held it's ground in comparison so far, will be interesting to see how the day closes......
Yep, the market is not following through. Maybe everyone is waiting for NFP tomorrow morning. The job numbers announced today in the US indicate an easing in job losses, but productivity was at a record pace of over 9%, which means jobs are not coming back anytime soon. A little confusing right now so on the sidelines until it is clear to me. Trade well everyone.

Novicetrader: suggest you invest more time reading this thread. After doing so, the answer to your recent question will be obvious. Best wishes.
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