High Probability

+10 pips to r1
+3 pips earlier
London open +20 pips
+33 pips tot

ism in 5 mins...
big up day, equities, but is it buy the rumor and sell the news?
after fed speak, the downdraft?
data has been pretty good so far,
relatively speaking...

the move is going great guns to upside,
temptation is to jump in, sometimes it works out okay but sometimes it is a disaster.
without a reasonable risk level for a stop better not to chase something like this.
the system I am using works.
I am a little clumsy with it but practice will smooth things out,
my success is not in catching quick bucks but in trading a sustained system.
LIke learning to ice skate, I'm not going to be doing figure eights right a way..
Maybe I'll never do figure eights.. but to some measure or other I will be able skate...

it's not impossible that pa could go to r2 before the fed speak.
positive divergence on macd
makes r2 the logical goal,
coincidentally it is also close to the 61 fib level

possible trade for GBPUSD on 15 min
looking for big move down after fed speak...

big move on fed announcement and fxdd is frozen.
they are a market maker, with a dealing desk, frozen
acm is ecn everything is moving just fine.
spreads are a little wider on acm, but they are not frozen on a big move,
you know I'm making the switch asap...
10 minutes now and fxdd is frozen solid.....
I have limit orders in but who knows what they will do?
great..
ecn here I come.
Then again I am looking at the charts and they are so different, I can hardly believe I am looking at the same pair...

am I looking at the same pair?
fxded vs acm

by a strange quirk of fate, in the comedy of errors I call my trading...
I have somehow or other now 13 micro lots open short GBPUSD,
zulu says it all.
so many booby traps,
a true labyrinth...
if they are indeed good trades, as I believe they are for a number of reasons both technical and fundamental, I should do very well in the world of micro.
The equity mkts should be continuing their retracement which will give strength to the dollar, and just see the glaring neg divergence in macd... 15m
ashi smoothed signal is confirming a downtrend..
But I will have to check back a little later, like in 7 hours?
This will be a big change for me, since I am used to watching every movement on the 1 minute to catch a pip here or there..
Now I have to turn the puters off and go away for 7 hours!!!!!
How is this possible???

lucky this time,
so many little unknowns with big consequences pop up..
all 13 micro lots went green,
so +180 pips.
I will need to see how to manage my signal provider account better.
I allowed unlimited lots (what was I thinking, obviously not thinking at all), and wouldn't you know it the signal provider opened 19 lots before I noticed and was still opening lots, I needed to close at least 6 of them for a pip or 2 here and there because the margin was too thin, but his trading style is very different from mine at present,
he was selling into the rally on GPBUSD, all the way up sell sell sellm something I would never do as a scalper... and the move to upside before fed speak was huge with all those micro lots open on my micro account,
but his call was good in the end.
I will cut the micro lots to be traded to 5.

now I have forgotten the cord to my laptop and the battery will only run for so long...
so at work I cannot even trade demo
one Murphy's Law episode after another...

ever amazed at how powerful the 200 ema is

For possible long entry
would like to see a bit more of pullback on 1 min,,,
5 min showing breakout upside trend..
big negative divergence macd on 4hr indicating longer term upward trend developing...
(equities through correcting perhaps, dollar weakness coming back rally into end of year.....)

robby pulled back on 1 min but the upside was not confirmed by ashi smoothed crossing above the 10lwma...
could pull back to 200on 1m..
no counter trend trading for me..
5 min still shows upside trend...

I like trading these lower time frames for a number of reasons. I am certain the principles I am learning here are applicable as well to higher time frames. I can experience the truth or falsity of them at a rapid pace and therefore get more lessons in a shorter period of time.
Also the funds required to trade the 1m can be micro, so risk while learning is minimized although real...
I've heard traders say the 1 min is the most difficult time frame to trade. If that is the case then if I can trade the 1m successfully I will have a good foundation to trade higher frames if I chose to later on...

although there is the obvious divergence in macd, I remember reading a discussion about macd divergence. It was stated there that when macd crosses the 0 line any divergence that occurred on the other side of the 0 line no longer has the same power of strong indication. Something to watch out for... since macd has indeed crossed the 0 line..

long signals on 1m cross 0 macd, green super rsi 5m and 15m, robby above 80

looking at the 4hr a tgt would be r1.
it will take all day to get there no doubt
very good data for the equity mkts, so do I just want to take scalp for a pip or two or can I try to ride the entire move out? lose to 100 pips....
stop is just below the pivot,
so I can take this as a quick scalp take the money and run, 10 or 15 pips
or take it as an excellent entry point for 10 times the gain...
here comes fear, you have 10 pips if take them they're yours... call it a day if you want, if you're wrong then this could turn into a loser...
this is where a strategy can save me...
forget about the 4hr for a minute, there is nothing on wither the 1min or the 5 min that says I should jump off the train.
what would really clinch it for me is if I could place the stop at break even.

nothing on the 5m or the 1 min that says jump out..
I will need to remain fixed in the system to not buckle under in a pullback...
I'm not going to do it this time, but if in the future I am in a trade like this, I would want to see pull backs as opportunities to open more positions not as places of fear to jump out.....

and I am seeing 35 pips now reduced to 10 pips, but I see nothing on the 5 min that says this anything other than a pullback and an opportunity to add more to a position or to get in if somehow I missed getting in on the initial breakout.

using heiken ashi is really so much easier than candles or bars. ashi filters out so much of the noise.
It's like information overload for me using candles.
I am looking at the charts and following them for some time now and what I see is that there are patterns that ashi forms.
I see familiar formations, not that I can list them or categorize them necessarily but I know them when I see them. Especially in combination with ashi smoothed...
visual trader...