$5k to infinite

Dear all,

I'd like to continue my journey I started in my previous 10k to 1M thread. For several reasons (has nothing to do with Oanda!) I had to pull out my money out there but still want to keep in contact with the markets.

So what's all about? I start with a fresh account and I start with AUD 5,000. So why the australian dollar you might ask as my base currency is the Euro? It's just that the AUD is one of the most solid currencies out there, a commodity currency. And as we are still in a commodities super bull cycle currently which might last another 7-10 years at least I think the AUD will outperform other currencies like the Euro and the Dollar (well, I can't imagine a currency which won't outperform the Dollar at the moment).

I'll trade my own style of BWILC (Median Grid Trading) here, use sometimes higher leverage but rarely stops at all. I will give my best to explain what I do here and please let me know if you have any questions.

I don't have a fixed target here, just will see how it goes and how far I can push this account.

So let's make some money!

Starting Balance 03-Nov-2009: $5,000.00

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/aud/account_031109.png

Review

To recap: I had to take some heavy losses because I was simply overleveraged in my account. Tell it overconfidence. I left October still with a positive number so I'm still happy but not so happy about my overleveraging. Will try to avoid it in the future.

So now as I start with a fresh account, everything's fine again, hehe. The last days were really choppy, driven by coming risk aversion and fears that all those gains were a bit too exciting and that the recovery of the world might not be that straight up. But then there are good numbers (like yesterday US housing numbers) which suprise the markets and immediately pushed the currencies higher and the Dollar down. Remember, this current trading scheme, that good US news are bad for the Dollar is not common. But as long as the Dollar (due to US bonds buying) is seen as "safe haven" this will continue. But the pressure is there...


Analysis

Some talk about a W-formed (double dip) recession already. I don't think that this will happen, there's too much money out there and the govs just will print more if necessary. Regarding data this is an interesting week. RBA already did hike the rate 25bps as expected. So we have 3.50% now (good for my new account btw). This is a notable difference to the Dollar which is likely to attract more money flows into the AUD plus you have to note that the AUD is a commodity currency underlyed with a solid economy.

The ECB will do their rate decision also this week and I think (like others) that they will be on hold at 1.00%. More interesting will be what they have to say afterwards. I think we might start to listen to some more hawkish tone, even though the ECB doesn't want a strong Euro and want a strong Dollar indeed! But hey, what can they do? I doubt that the FED (which will meet as well) will talk the Dollar up. Oh yes, they talk about that the US wants a strong Dollar, but that's all blabla guys! Of course they want the Dollar to devalue, that's no question. There is no other way to pay the debts back (beside double digit interest rates to attract enough money but that's not in the cards at the moment).

BOE might be interesting as well as it's expected that they will increase their quantitative easing stuff which would be bad for the pound. I think that the Euro will outperform the pound in the longer run and that we head for parity in the EUR/GBP so I'll add a small long right here in that pair.


Plan

As this is a fresh account, I already went short Dollar. I know this doesn't sound sexy at the moment but the trends are still up for the currencies and we had a nice deep dip. So long EUR, AUD, CAD and NOK, shorting USD and GBP.
If we really see some naked panic selling I'll hedge with AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY shorts as Oanda doesn't allow direct hedging.


Open trades

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/aud/...ons_031109.png


Prices

AUD/USD 0.9030
EUR/GBP 0.9030
EUR/USD 1.4800
GBP/USD 1.6380
USD/CAD 1.0770
USD/CHF 1.0210
USD/JPY 90.20
USD/NOK 5.7500
Gold 1064
Silver 16.60
Oil 76.40
Dax 5400
Dow Jones 9770


Account Summary

Starting date: 03-Nov-09
Starting Balance: $5,000

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/aud/...t_031109_2.png

good luck with your new mission...Will keep reading - makes me feel hopeful when I see someone doing good. Much nicer than reading about blown accounts...Thanks for the analysis too
Cheers

Good luck Xaron........Just left a note on the old thread...Will this be the new thead now or will you still have entries on the other thread?........Is your new acct still in Europe or have you moved it down under also ?......Howkra

good luck

Thanks!

@Howkra: I have the new account at Oanda in US as well. Actually it's not a new account it's just a new sub account to my primary one.

And for now this will be the new thread yes. I might continue the other one as soon as I have enough money again there.

Good morning!

Review

Woah there! Now that had been a real roller coaster in my account yesterday. After I added my first Dollar shorts in went immediately against me. I added more Euro and Aussie longs the way down but especially the Euro did not look back and stopped right above 1.46. I guess a lot of stops have been taken out there as the zone around 1.4680 was a good resistance. Today back at around 1.4750.

Gold did shoot up to 1085 where I decided to short it. IMF sold 200 tons of gold but China and India stepped in. The stock markets were almost unchanged.

All in all it was a very good first day for me in the new account even though I had not expected such a harsh drop.


Analysis

That was rather interesting yesterday. Stop fishing, fights between bulls and bears and a lot of guys might be short in the Euro now. Hell, even Ashraf Laidi expects the Euro to close this week below 1.4550 with a chance of 70%! Now of course that might happen and the weekly chart really looks like this. It depends a bit from the FOMC statement today and NFP on friday so some market shaking events. Well I don't expect that Dollar supportive FOMC statement today but maybe I'm alone with that. We'll see. I doubt it will change the long term trend. Euro will hit it's all time highs again - no doubt - the only question is how deep it goes before? I don't think that we will close below 1.4480 which is another good support. Looks like a lot of market participants see those cheaper levels just as good dip buying opportunities. And so do I even though I might lower my leverage...


Plan

Nothing new. Dip buying.


Open trades

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/aud/...ons_041109.png


Prices

AUD/USD 0.9050
EUR/GBP 0.8950
EUR/USD 1.4750
GBP/USD 1.6470
USD/CAD 1.0630
USD/CHF 1.0250
USD/JPY 90.60
USD/NOK 5.7500
Gold 1084
Silver 17.20
Oil 77.80
Dax 5390
Dow Jones 9780


Account Summary

Starting date: 03-Nov-09
Starting Balance: $5,000

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/aud/account_041109.png

I just decided to drop my Gold short and added another Euro long and Cad long. It's a bit strange why India decided to buy 200 tons of Gold at these high levels...

Usually if Gold shoots up, the Euro should follow.

So Chuck Butler had some interesting facts today:

So... What put the tiger in Gold's tank yesterday and overnight? Well, the weaker dollar helped... The thought became clearer that the cartel, I mean the Fed will keep rates on hold this week helped... But the real beef came from the announcement that the Reserve Bank of India was buying the 200 tons of Gold from the IMF... I know, I know, I told you yesterday that I thought it would be a "wash" for the dollar and the Gold price... But that was before I learned that the Reserve Bank of India paid for their $6.7 Billion dollars worth of Gold with... SDR's!

So... Either, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) didn't want to get rid of their dollar reserves... (yeah, right!) or... The IMF didn't want anything to do with dollars, and preferred receiving SDR's! (for those of new to class, a SDR is a basket of currencies to make one unit called a Special Drawing Right, of which the IMF uses, and has been rumored to be the replacement for the dollar as the reserve currency of the world... The one government, one currency thing)

Xaron,

i don't know what to read into India's buying that amt of gold at that price.

one thing i know for sure: the West as we know it is Dead ;-)

Good morning!

Review

The FED yesterday did not change their rate as expected but even did not change their tone even a bit. So they gave a signal to the market that the rates will stay low for a longer time. The Dollar got sold immediately but has got back some ground over night. We'll see if that will be a sustainable thing or it's just profit taking. The stock markets didn't react that much and it looks like they get a bit out of steam.


Analysis

Nothing new. Now the ECB has to step in and might talk again about a strong Dollar. But without the FED in the background there isn't so much they can do about any Euro strength. As Germany really seems to come out of recession (I mean it really looks good here in Germany) they might start some more hawkish words. But of course they know that this will fire the Euro to the moon. So it's a bit difficult for them. I expect the rate to be unchanged for some more time.

The other question again is when this flight to the "safety" of US treasuries will have an end and we see a return to the fundamentals which would mean: good US news: Dollar up and stocks up.


Plan

Again nothing new. Dip buying if it goes deeper.


Open trades

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/aud/...ons_051109.png


Prices

AUD/USD 0.9050
EUR/GBP 0.9000
EUR/USD 1.4820
GBP/USD 1.6480
USD/CAD 1.0660
USD/CHF 1.0250
USD/JPY 90.40
USD/NOK 5.7000
Gold 1086
Silver 17.30
Oil 78.00
Dax 5390
Dow Jones 9780


Account Summary

Starting date: 03-Nov-09
Starting Balance: $5,000

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/aud/account_051109.png

A great video from Chuck Butler:

Why Is the Fed Buying Treasuries?

xaron,

can i ask why you dont trade the nzdusd? secondly, i presume you close specific positions daily and open new ones?

thks

I do. Actually I went long in NZD/USD this morning at 7165.

thks. and the second bit about my query is right?

Yes. I close some positions if they are in profit and let others run. It just depends.

I just wanted to say how inspiring I find your threads. I wish you the best of luck with this new endeavor -- though I'm positive it will be back up to 20 odd thousand in no time.

However, I am interested know one thing: Do you use multiple time frames? I figured that you are deciding on the direction of the market on a longer time frame and then finding possible entries on a short time frame?

I'm probably completely off track! Like I said, I'm new here. (I'm going to use that excuse for a couple of years).

Thanks Honor!

Usually yes. I look for entries in the hourly chart near supports and often use resistances as target and vice versa. So no rocket science here. I give my trade plenty of room to breath.

Weekly and daily charts show the direction. Important to me are closing levels so a break of a resistance doesn't mean that a trend did change. It has to close below/above...

Good morning!

Just a short one today. I'm quite tired and have got a cold. Dow is up above 10000 again and I think it won't stop here.

Today everyone looks at the NFP which will be better I guess but manipulated as usual. Euro might eye higher 1.49 levels again. That's my "plan" so nothing to do just to wait. If it dips I buy.


Open trades

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/aud/...ons_061109.png


Prices

AUD/USD 0.917
EUR/GBP 0.8960
EUR/USD 1.4890
GBP/USD 1.6620
USD/CAD 1.0620
USD/CHF 1.0160
USD/JPY 90.50
USD/NOK 5.6600
Gold 1094
Silver 17.50
Oil 78.50
Dax 5490
Dow Jones 9990


Account Summary

Starting date: 03-Nov-09
Starting Balance: $5,000

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/aud/account_061109.png

Good Am to you Evil Kraut,Do you trade the eur/gbp also? since it is $1=1.76.Also what trading system do you use? I trade the 5,8,13 sma 5 min chart with macd 5,35,5 most of the time. PS: successful trading to you daily!!!