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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #206,621
  • Nov 2, 2009 11:45pm Nov 2, 2009 11:45pm
I agree with you. But something bugs me about pure tech patterns sometimes. For example, we know that volume is low today just by virtue of the fact that Japan has a bank holiday. So we've basically seen only the Aussies pushing the market one way or another during the asian session.

Of that Aussie session, a lot of the markets have been flat anyway due to the Melbourne Cup. Lol, even on the business channels you could see National Australia bank and other brokers with the melbourne cup on big tv's in the background lol.

But anyway, these patterns were created based on lighter volume than usual. London will open soon and it will be interesting to see what happens.

I'm a tech trader as well but I always like to think about 'general conditions' so far general conditions have been pretty flat during asian trade at least on the ASX. Nothing too dramatic happened even with the interest rate release by the RBA that I can tell.

I'm also wondering why we didn't fall further during yesterdays london/Ny session. Just makes me think we will be going higher during this London/NY session. Always watch the charts but I am thinking..and curious...

Quoting Piters
Looks like FLAG, smells like FLAG... it is a FLAG... [j/k]

YUP.. all retrace is a flag with Possible projected target at 143.75... but.. Im watching all asia session that Trigger as a Descending triangle above the DPP..

I wait on some more Volume to push that under the DPP. and play the Flag..

[Chart]
  • #206,622
  • Nov 2, 2009 11:57pm Nov 2, 2009 11:57pm
actualy Im expecting another test to 148.30 before we spike down..

GY moves in range from 180 - 250 (on good days), Yesterday we saw a drop in Sydney (something very rare) possible b/c CIT news -170p.. then we saw a full buying action of the 145.8 with some insane USDJPY buying.. 270pips - no stop.. Then some Good FORD NEWS.. and finally we closed at daily bar open.. So.. in total :
of the 313 pips (a bit over the average) range, we closed at daily open as a doji.. with total swings overt the 600p ... that is the maximum..

I remember only few days whit a selloff after NY lunch break.. (after UK close), so this was the same.. If they are not seeling the first hour after the lunch break.. then in 90% the current LOW is the Daily LOW (statistic)
  • #206,623
  • Nov 2, 2009 11:58pm Nov 2, 2009 11:58pm
My point is although over all trend is down, but present PA is with low volume. Also, there is a transition period from each mkt opening (traders taking profits). So, I am buying every dip now until London mkt open.


Quoting altrader
I agree with you. But something bugs me about pure tech patterns sometimes. For example, we know that volume is low today just by virtue of the fact that Japan has a bank holiday. So we've basically seen only the Aussies pushing the market one way or another during the asian session.

Of that Aussie session, a lot of the markets have been flat anyway due to the Melbourne Cup. Lol, even on the business channels you could see National Australia bank and other brokers with the melbourne cup on big tv's in the background lol.

But anyway, these patterns...
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  • #206,624
  • Nov 3, 2009 12:00am Nov 3, 2009 12:00am
Good points Piters that I hadn't considered. I agree with you that if we are going down further then yeah a retrace up to around that 148 and slightly above would be a good place to go short if you believe markets will tumble down further. It will be interesting to see how things go at the London open.

Quoting Piters
actualy Im expecting another test to 148.30 before we spike down..

GY moves in range from 180 - 250 (on good days), Yesterday we saw a drop in Sydney (something very rare) possible b/c CIT news -170p.. then we saw a full buying action of the 145.8 with some insane USDJPY buying.. 270pips - no stop.. Then some Good FORD NEWS.. and finally we closed at daily bar open.. So.. in total :
of the 313 pips (a bit over the average) range, we closed at daily open as a doji.. with total swings overt the 600p ... that is the maximum..

I remember only few...
  • #206,625
  • Nov 3, 2009 12:01am Nov 3, 2009 12:01am
Quote
But something bugs me about pure tech patterns sometimes. For example, we know that volume is low today just by virtue of the fact that Japan has a bank holiday. So we've basically seen only the Aussies pushing the market one way or another during the asian session.

from some of my bad experience, I know that they are pushing the price up on low volume, when low traffic and easy to manage the price.. So.. they are active 24H 365 .. dont worry

February, March, the best JPY buying were right at Asia lunch time.. I remember GY moves for over 150 pips in 1h.. ..
  • #206,626
  • Nov 3, 2009 12:03am Nov 3, 2009 12:03am
Yeah true there is that transition period definitely.

Quoting manz66
My point is although over all trend is down, but present PA is with low volume. Also, there is a transition period from each mkt opening (traders taking profits). So, I am buying every dip now until London mkt open.
  • #206,627
  • Nov 3, 2009 12:06am Nov 3, 2009 12:06am
Wow, 150pip moves at luch time. I'm pretty new to trading the GBP/JPY pair. It is very wild as far as currencies go and what I've been used to. Previously I would mostly trade the EUR/USD which has been a bit of a snail for awhile now.

Quoting Piters
from some of my bad experience, I know that they are pushing the price up on low volume, when low traffic and easy to manage the price.. So.. they are active 24H 365 .. dont worry

February, March, the best JPY buying were right at Asia lunch time.. I remember GY moves for over 150 pips in 1h.. ..
  • #206,628
  • Nov 3, 2009 12:41am Nov 3, 2009 12:41am
Quoting manz66
My point is although over all trend is down, but present PA is with low volume. Also, there is a transition period from each mkt opening (traders taking profits). So, I am buying every dip now until London mkt open.


you talk about volume yet you do not understand it , price is just going sideways in a low volume consolidation period

60 min clearly shows sellers hitting gj , about 50 pip under Fridays lower values area ( I do not count Sundays session due to low volume). The sellers hit the market on the good news this morning. This mean that likely lower prices are to come over the next 48 hours.

you are buying , and yes there are rallies , however distribution is clearly taking place off 148.50 ,

intil this level is broken i am selling all rallies

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  • #206,629
  • Nov 3, 2009 1:27am Nov 3, 2009 1:27am
I'm seeing at leasat 145.80 today. Japanese drinking saki all day so expecting big moves.....south.
TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #206,630
  • Nov 3, 2009 1:44am Nov 3, 2009 1:44am
There are many way to skin the cat. I backed up what I did with buying GJ and showing my trade, but that was more than one hour before london open, when volume was low. Now I am short since london open.

There is something called scalping! which I was doing, taking advantage of mkt transition from Asia to European mkt.

Quoting malcolmb14
you talk about volume yet you do not understand it , price is just going sideways in a low volume consolidation period

60 min clearly shows sellers hitting gj , about 50 pip under Fridays lower values area ( I do not count Sundays session due to low volume). The sellers hit the market on the good news this morning. This mean that likely lower prices are to come over the next 48 hours.

you are buying , and yes there are rallies , however distribution is clearly taking place off 148.50 ,

intil this level is broken i am selling all rallies

Attachment ...
  • #206,631
  • Nov 3, 2009 1:45am Nov 3, 2009 1:45am
IMO.. price is in a range.. I think there's no point in making any TA until the range is broken.. I know some of you here are Power Ranges in trading range .. but I know i'm not.. so I'm gonna give it sometime to show its true colors.. In the meantime I trade AU,EU,GCAD & UCAD.. See you guys later..
  • #206,632
  • Nov 3, 2009 1:47am Nov 3, 2009 1:47am
Cable now breaking LTL, UK banks being ordered to break up and sell highly profitable (currently) investment arms = every man and his dog dumping sterling.
TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #206,633
  • Nov 3, 2009 1:57am Nov 3, 2009 1:57am
Where did you read that?

Quoting cgldsmth
Cable now breaking LTL, UK banks being ordered to break up and sell highly profitable (currently) investment arms = every man and his dog dumping sterling.
  • #206,634
  • Nov 3, 2009 1:58am Nov 3, 2009 1:58am
Malcom do you still think that we will see 1.5200 in the next few months/
  • #206,635
  • Nov 3, 2009 2:00am Nov 3, 2009 2:00am
Quoting Piters
Looks like FLAG, smells like FLAG... it is a FLAG... [j/k]

YUP.. all retrace is a flag with Possible projected target at 143.75... but.. Im watching all asia session that Trigger as a Descending triangle above the DPP..

I wait on some more Volume to push that under the DPP. and play the Flag..

[Chart]
nice trigger.. UK open.. let see can they push down to 146.25 or reverse the whole storry...

cheers@
  • #206,636
  • Nov 3, 2009 2:09am Nov 3, 2009 2:09am
Quoting Fusion
Malcom do you still think that we will see 1.5200 in the next few months/
If im not mistaken, but we just broke the NL on cable H/S

[Chart]
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  • #206,637
  • Nov 3, 2009 2:10am Nov 3, 2009 2:10am
Quoting Piters
nice trigger.. UK open.. let see can they push down to 146.25 or reverse the whole storry...

cheers@
DOon't we have buyers off 146.800 on 5 min chart?
  • #206,638
  • Nov 3, 2009 2:14am Nov 3, 2009 2:14am
Quoting Fusion
DOon't we have buyers off 146.800 on 5 min chart?
UK session just opened..
allow 15 min.. then ...

146.80 is an OLD S/R friend..

BTW.. yes.. 146.80 has been tested few times.. next support and possible short term reversal point is 146.25

(sorry mate.. im not speaking VSA language., the best person to talk with is MAlc and Dr. G) ...
  • #206,639
  • Nov 3, 2009 2:16am Nov 3, 2009 2:16am
Quoting Fusion
DOon't we have buyers off 146.800 on 5 min chart?
There are buyers at 146.8, but that's to be expected as it's the last support area. Look at the 1hr TF and you will see the previous candle body there. (The wick is lower, but step by step).

The question we don't know yet is just how strong the buying is, but that will soon be clear.

EDIT: 15m TF shows selling volume on last candle.
  • #206,640
  • Nov 3, 2009 2:24am Nov 3, 2009 2:24am
GU has been selling like hot cake too...If you look at daily chart, you can see a freaking huge descending triangle ...basisat 1.6280 ish..I fi gives way,...

Quoting ukdaytrader
There are buyers at 146.8, but that's to be expected as it's the last support area. Look at the 1hr TF and you will see the previous candle body there. (The wick is lower, but step by step).

The question we don't know yet is just how strong the buying is, but that will soon be clear.

EDIT: 15m TF shows selling volume on last candle.
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