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What's the best 5 year investment?

  • #21
  • Nov 1, 2009 12:14am Nov 1, 2009 12:14am
Quoting neo1599
Hi

Looking ahead what do you think is the best investment for the next 5 years.

What has had the sh*t kicked out of it the most in the last year or two? What has been driven down to near historical lows? What has great underlying fundamentals and strength? What has been grossly oversold?
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.The mighty USD
  • #22
  • Nov 1, 2009 12:56am Nov 1, 2009 12:56am
Quoting capitalx
What has had the sh*t kicked out of it the most in the last year or two? What has been driven down to near historical lows? What has great underlying fundamentals and strength? What has been grossly oversold?
.

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.The mighty USD
You might be onto something there.

So, everyone is selling the dollar to buy everything else and everything else is going up. But so are the US stock markets. Does that mean someone is buying dollars? Confused.
  • #23
  • Nov 1, 2009 3:17pm Nov 1, 2009 3:17pm
Quoting pounce
You are not going to like this. But there are no "good ideas the next 5 years".
Let me explain. Five years into the future is like a year in 2000, 2 years in 1990 and 5 years in 1980. Who would've imagined the great Mr. Buffet losing 1/3 of his portfolio in 2008?
Baloney! Why even invest at all then? Buffett also bought a lot of stock!
  • #24
  • Nov 1, 2009 8:37pm Nov 1, 2009 8:37pm
Quoting pounce
You might be onto something there.

So, everyone is selling the dollar to buy everything else and everything else is going up..
Everything else can't keep going up forever, or even for 5 years. The US dollar will make a big comeback within the next 5 years. Probably within 1 year.
  • #25
  • Edited 4:02am Nov 2, 2009 3:26am | Edited 4:02am
Quoting Danoid
Baloney! Why even invest at all then? Buffett also bought a lot of stock!
Yes and he's down ~30%.
  • #26
  • Nov 2, 2009 3:33am Nov 2, 2009 3:33am
At the current moment I would be looking into energy sector, huge changes are coming in the near future (next 5-20 years)

Crude will be a good place to be as it will almost certainly get more expensive in long term as will all the renewarble energ yocmpanies [solar, wind companies]. If Desertec catches on, basket of the companies who are part of the initiatitive might be an interesting position to have.

Also, us treasuries are (IMHO) very likey to collapse so there is a good short position there as is with dollar if the treasuries collapse. Dollar will also be down long term because of the central banks are moving their reserves to other currencies and oil trade is starting to move ot other currencies. all these are very big events that will make the dollar demand lower.

Just my 2 cents
  • #27
  • Nov 2, 2009 4:24pm Nov 2, 2009 4:24pm
Quoting pounce
Yes and he's down ~30%.
Poor Mr Buffett. I will have to lend him some money.
  • #28
  • Nov 2, 2009 6:15pm Nov 2, 2009 6:15pm
Quoting zarraman
Poor Mr Buffett. I will have to lend him some money.
The point being, no one is infallible.

Buffet is famous for picking the best 5-10-20 year investments. And that didn't work this time.

I'm suggesting that 5 years in way too long into the future. It's like being in the 1900s and not imagining walking on the moon, the internet, stem cell research etc.
  • #29
  • Nov 3, 2009 12:22am Nov 3, 2009 12:22am
http://www.insidercow.com/history/in...&name=PERELMAN RONALD O&title= director 10% owner

5 years..., just follow Ron Perelman with Revlon and you can't go wrong.
History is written by the victors.
  • #30
  • Nov 3, 2009 3:12am Nov 3, 2009 3:12am
Quoting Money-RX
http://www.insidercow.com/history/in...&name=PERELMAN RONALD O&title= director 10% owner

5 years..., just follow Ron Perelman with Revlon and you can't go wrong.
Just to be clear. That link shows his purchases for 5 years.

He bought Revlon in June 2006 and that has gained 0.7%
He bought the same again in August 2008 and that has gained 1,000%

So, it he got the timing right, he was lucky. That is all!
  • #31
  • Nov 6, 2009 12:10am Nov 6, 2009 12:10am
Quoting pounce
The point being, no one is infallible.

Buffet is famous for picking the best 5-10-20 year investments. And that didn't work this time.

I'm suggesting that 5 years in way too long into the future. It's like being in the 1900s and not imagining walking on the moon, the internet, stem cell research etc.

You are right. Buffett is a failure.

The point being that Mr Buffett is a long time frame investor. He doesn't give a monkeys about the short time frames. But he has been very right on the long time frames. Unless being the second richest man in the world a failure. Come back here in 5 years and have another look at his investments
  • #32
  • Nov 6, 2009 8:19am Nov 6, 2009 8:19am
Quoting daringdave
The point being that Mr Buffett is a long time frame investor. He doesn't give a monkeys about the short time frames. But he has been very right on the long time frame.
Ok again, to repeat myself.
The infallible Mr. Buffet made a loss of 30% in 2008 after a series of spectacular gains over a long period of time.

Is this so difficult to understand? Or are we the dumbed-down generation?
  • #33
  • Nov 6, 2009 9:24am Nov 6, 2009 9:24am
Quoting daringdave
You are right. Buffett is a failure. http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s..._the_floor.gif
You are right. You are not Buffet. http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s..._the_floor.gif
  • #34
  • Nov 6, 2009 6:06pm Nov 6, 2009 6:06pm
Quoting pounce
Ok again, to repeat myself.
The infallible Mr. Buffet made a loss of 30% in 2008 after a series of spectacular gains over a long period of time.

Is this so difficult to understand? Or are we the dumbed-down generation?
No We are the limited attention span generation. If you had taken the time to read the topic instead of posting without thinking, you would have seen that he topic is Whats the best FIVE year investment. You are showing only ONE year of 2008.
Come back in 2014 and Mr Buffett will still be scoring big goals and you will still have a limited attention span.
  • #35
  • Nov 7, 2009 2:52am Nov 7, 2009 2:52am
Quoting daringdave
No We are the limited attention span generation. If you had taken the time to read the topic instead of posting without thinking, you would have seen that he topic is Whats the best FIVE year investment. You are showing only ONE year of 2008.
Come back in 2014 and Mr Buffett will still be scoring big goals and you will still have a limited attention span.
You seem to have the attention span of a peanut. If you had read the thread in it's entirety, you would have seen what I am about to repeat here.

A 5 year investment horizon these days is like a 30 year horizon when Mr. Buffet started investing.
Is this difficult to understand?

If someone is talking about a 5 year investment horizon today, you have to wonder whether he is stuck in the 80s.

To illustrate, I gave the example of Mr. Buffet, a guru of long-term investing philosophy who made a loss in 2008. Is that not a fact? Why the aggravation?

Who would have thought in the 70s that GM would fail? How many today can say with certainty that Microsoft will be in existence in 2020?

And agin to repeat to the peas and pods. Five years is way out into the future. It is like being in the 60s and making plans for the 2010s.

If you are thinking green, solar/wind, stem-cells or whatever, it is already priced in. Each of these are already valued at what they will look like (earnings, PE, etc.) when they are fully mature.
  • #36
  • Nov 8, 2009 8:56am Nov 8, 2009 8:56am
This is all extremely amusing...

I'm pretty sure Buffet didn't take much of a loss, it's only a loss when you sell, so he might be down some but not necessarily have a loss.

It's still not to late to get in on Dongfeng (DNFGF). Waaay to late for BYD!

I just found this awesome Chinese gaming company, PWRD. The PE is a bit too high for my tastes.
  • #37
  • Edited 11:10am Nov 8, 2009 10:43am | Edited 11:10am
What I don't like about Dong is that it's inventory, short-term debt and long-term debt have all gone up. However, cash on hand has increased some 40% and enough to cover the increased inventory and debt during the same period.
The 52 week high/low is ~800%.

The one I recently bought is QINGLING MOTORS. This one has 0 debt, cash on hand is up 20% and inventory is down.
The 52 week high/low is ~300%.
Incidentally Isuzu owns 20% of the company.

Net profit for both are up 10%. The turnover of Dong is 20 times Qing's and the market cap is 15 times greater. Net profit as a % of turnover is 7 for Dong and 5 for Qing.

BYD inventory up 40%, cash on hand down 80%, st/lt debt down 10%, net profit up 200%, net profit is 6% of revenue and the 52 week high/low is ~950%.
  • #38
  • Nov 8, 2009 11:08am Nov 8, 2009 11:08am
Quoting Danoid
I just found this awesome Chinese gaming company, PWRD. The PE is a bit too high for my tastes.
This this from the Fool, dude? Damn!

I recently sold Kingsoft another game-making software company. It had all my criteria going for it - 0 debt, increased cash on hand, lower/steady inventory etc.
But when one mofo (Citi) downgraded the company to a sell, Kingsoft put out a statement (within hours) to counter the mofo's reasons for the downgrade. This to me reeks of mofoness. I mean, come on!

Since then, it collapsed 10%, I guess on the adage that nothing is true until officially denied.
When I looked at the Board, it was very heavy (too many mofos, all smiling) for a software company.
I took at 12% loss on this one, happily.
  • #39
  • Nov 9, 2009 9:11pm Nov 9, 2009 9:11pm
Ok,

Seems everyone is looking more to stocks than anything else.

My suggestion:

Go for this company:

RIL - Reliance Industries Limited

They basically own almost all sectors of Indian economy between two groups. I am sure every1 has heard of the Ambani's.

Reasons for this stock:

Track record - It has never disappointed its stockholders. If you are long India then this stock has to go up. There is no way that the Indian stock market can go up without this company gaining. So 5 years down the line this should be about 2-3 times current market price.

I dont know about most of the people here but my way to gauge a company's future prospects is by checking the public barometer.

Real story:

My brother-in-law works in Mumbai which is sort of Wall St. for India. The entire city is crazy about stocks. He smokes a lot and guess what his tobaconnist(hope I got the spelling right) said to him one day. Sir, I dont know much about stocks but all I do is buy 1 share of RIL every time I have the money no matter what the price. I have been doing it every since the company started and will keep doing it for the next 30 years. I can be assured of my future based on that single stock.

This view is very widely held by nearly all classes of people. The entire liquidity of the Indian stock market got sucked out when a part of this group came out with an IPO. The market fell 10% people borrowed money, sold stock just to apply for the IPO.

Regards

Neo
  • #40
  • Nov 9, 2009 9:45pm Nov 9, 2009 9:45pm
Quoting pounce
The one I recently bought is QINGLING MOTORS. This one has 0 debt, cash on hand is up 20% and inventory is down.
The 52 week high/low is ~300%.
Incidentally Isuzu owns 20% of the company.
Qing up 11% on very good volume (4 times yesterday's) on no news at mid-day on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
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