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Mister ED's HA trading journal

  • #1
  • First Post: Nov 1, 2009 6:59pm Nov 1, 2009 6:59pm
Here is my trading journal that relates to my HA thread.

To understand the way the charts and trades are set up I would refer you to http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=182645

I will try to update the trades at the end of each day. This is to indicate what setups there are and the so this thread will not be a live trade signal service.

Note also that the trades that I am looking at are based on 4 hour charts supplied by FXDD and I am using optimised current trades setups that I have attached. These indicate the times and days that I look for possible trades on each pair. These are based on my past trades and are purely related to what I have seen on the charts, it is all based on forward and backtesting and it is totally up to each trader to decide if this fits their profile.

I will also not be looking to add further indicators to the system as I feel that many do not help because of repainting issues etc. The system is designed to be as mechanical as possible and not subjective.

I find that the first week of each month can be quite rough especially as we are starting a new quarter. My largest weekly drawdown was the first week of November last year, but having said that I still returned 4000 pips for the month (not using optimised setups, just trading all the signals).

With each signal I will trade it in either 1 or two individual trades, depending on how the pair has been trading. I calculate the return based on a two part trade.

e.g. GBPUSD gets to TP1 at 65 pips, trailing SL closed at 35 pips

if I decided on trading this as one trade I would calulate the return as 130 pips (ie I have adjusted the result as if it were traded as 2 trades)

if I had decided to trade this as two trades I would calculate the return as 65+35 pips

I do things this way because some pairs trend well and therefore do better being traded in 2 parts per signal so that the second part of the tarde can follow the trend, and some pairs just tend to fluctuate a bit and therefore it is better to get the pips in the bag as soon as possible.

If this is confusing then just wait and you should be able to understand it as the trades come through.
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc current trades setup Nov1.doc   158 KB | 1,084 downloads
File Type: doc Mister ED's 4 hour system.doc   117 KB | 1,269 downloads
  • #2
  • Nov 1, 2009 7:10pm Nov 1, 2009 7:10pm
Thanks Mr. Ed. It will nice to see your trading methodology as it unfolds.

Thanks again for your time.

W.
  • #3
  • Nov 2, 2009 12:43am Nov 2, 2009 12:43am
I'm looking forward to your journal . . . good trading!
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #4
  • Nov 2, 2009 1:34pm Nov 2, 2009 1:34pm
Go get um Mr. Ed....happy trading!
  • #5
  • Nov 2, 2009 9:05pm Nov 2, 2009 9:05pm
GBPUSD 0:00 TP 73 pips

Hit TP1 so closed both parts of the trade at TP1 giving 146 pips for the two parts. This is a case where the pair in question doesn't go far and so I close everything at TP1, if I hadn't the second part would have closed at -5 pips for a total of 65 pips for the trade.
The pairs that I do this with are GBPUSD, EURUSD, AUDUSD, AUDJPY at the moment, but I constantly monitor this.

EUDGBP 8:00 TP 35 pips

TP1 hit, second part of the trade closed at 4 pips for a total of 39 pips for the two trades.

I hope these examples today demonstrate why I calculate the pip returns so that I can have comparable results from those pairs where I close everything at TP1 and those where I let the second part go.

Looks like EURUSD may be setting up for a trade but I would not take the AUDUSD trade that is also setting up, based on the optimised trading pattern. 4:00 is the least successful of the EURUSD times that I trade so I will probably just pass as I will be asleep then.

Probably just going to be a messy week until the NFP is out of the way.

All the best,

Mister ED
  • #6
  • Nov 2, 2009 9:49pm Nov 2, 2009 9:49pm
Quoting Mister ED
GBPUSD 0:00 TP 73 pips

Hit TP1 so closed both parts of the trade at TP1 giving 146 pips for the two parts. This is a case where the pair in question doesn't go far and so I close everything at TP1, if I hadn't the second part would have closed at -5 pips for a total of 65 pips for the trade.
The pairs that I do this with are GBPUSD, EURUSD, AUDUSD, AUDJPY at the moment, but I constantly monitor this.

EUDGBP 8:00 TP 35 pips

TP1 hit, second part of the trade closed at 4 pips for a total of 39 pips for the two trades.

I hope these examples...
Very nice Mr. Ed. I like this journal idea.
  • #7
  • Nov 2, 2009 10:54pm Nov 2, 2009 10:54pm
Will be following allow too
  • #8
  • Nov 3, 2009 1:57am Nov 3, 2009 1:57am
Quoting Mister ED
GBPUSD 0:00 TP 73 pips

Hit TP1 so closed both parts of the trade at TP1 giving 146 pips for the two parts. This is a case where the pair in question doesn't go far and so I close everything at TP1, if I hadn't the second part would have closed at -5 pips for a total of 65 pips for the trade.
The pairs that I do this with are GBPUSD, EURUSD, AUDUSD, AUDJPY at the moment, but I constantly monitor this.

EUDGBP 8:00 TP 35 pips

TP1 hit, second part of the trade closed at 4 pips for a total of 39 pips for the two trades.

I hope these examples...
Sorry to be a pain here but how exactly do you calculate where to TP about? I have been using your method but I've been guesstimating a TP which is smaller than yours. For the short time that I've been using this method it has, on the whole, proved profitable.
Many thanks

McKevvy
  • #9
  • Nov 3, 2009 2:34am Nov 3, 2009 2:34am
Hello Mr. Ed.
You've got a very interesting system. But EA's became very complicated recently, so it's became hard to get the "guts feeling" of how it works.

And here comes this thread, where real trades are provided with the explnations, so everyone can see what and why is traded in almost a realtime !

PS: Great thanks goes to Mr. Ed for this thread support
and to Longbar for his great work.
  • #10
  • Edited 3:10am Nov 3, 2009 2:59am | Edited 3:10am
By the way, Mr. Ed, do you have some special threatment for the payrolls and for the precoming Thursday ?
  • #11
  • Nov 3, 2009 5:39am Nov 3, 2009 5:39am
Quoting McKevvy
Sorry to be a pain here but how exactly do you calculate where to TP about? I have been using your method but I've been guesstimating a TP which is smaller than yours. For the short time that I've been using this method it has, on the whole, proved profitable.
Many thanks

McKevvy
Hi McKevvy

The TP1 is the same as the ATR. Once TP1 is hit the second part of the trade either closes at TP1 as well or is a trailing SL - this depends on what pair you are trading as I noted in the last post. The aim is to keep things mechanical and simple, thereby reducing the traders influence on the trade.

I will post comments on todays setups tonight.

All the best,
Mister ED
  • #12
  • Nov 3, 2009 5:45am Nov 3, 2009 5:45am
Quoting Niktesla
By the way, Mr. Ed, do you have some special threatment for the payrolls and for the precoming Thursday ?
Hi Niktesla

I try to treat the NFP the way that the charts say. If there is a large spike it is often more than twice the ATR and so you wouldn't take the trade anyway.

I try to trade the signals but I feel that is pays to be cautious and so I may reduce the stake size. I used to feel compelled to trade the NFP but have been burnt often and so may just leave it out, there are plenty more trades that come along.

All the best

Mister ED
  • #13
  • Nov 3, 2009 6:20pm Nov 3, 2009 6:20pm
EURUSD 4:00 TP 51

Hit SL on next candle. I didn't take this as it was in the middle of ther night and the 4:00 candle is not that good for EURUSD, I will keep it under under advisement at this stage.
The following candle gave a signal that was too large to take.

USDCAD 20:00 TP 58

Ongoing

EURGBP 16:00 TP 35

Ongoing

So two trades live, slightly in the red at this stage. Some trades look like coming up soon but I still feel I would be cautious trading this week.

All the best,
Mister ED
  • #14
  • Nov 3, 2009 7:08pm Nov 3, 2009 7:08pm
  • #15
  • Nov 4, 2009 9:02am Nov 4, 2009 9:02am
Quoting Mister ED
EURUSD 4:00 TP 51

Hit SL on next candle. I didn't take this as it was in the middle of ther night and the 4:00 candle is not that good for EURUSD, I will keep it under under advisement at this stage.
The following candle gave a signal that was too large to take.

USDCAD 20:00 TP 58

Ongoing

EURGBP 16:00 TP 35

Ongoing

So two trades live, slightly in the red at this stage. Some trades look like coming up soon but I still feel I would be cautious trading this week.

All the best,
Mister ED
What are your trading plan rules as to what point you change a pair's exit from "all in/all out" to "1/2 out + a runner" ? Also, the decision to rule a candle time in or out for trading?
  • #16
  • Nov 4, 2009 12:03pm Nov 4, 2009 12:03pm
Quoting FXLab
What are your trading plan rules as to what point you change a pair's exit from "all in/all out" to "1/2 out + a runner" ? Also, the decision to rule a candle time in or out for trading?
Hi FXlab

These decisions are all based on my forward testing results that started in Jan 2009.

The all in/all out is based on looking at what percantage of time the second part of a trade would close at less pips than the first part closed at. This would indicate that a trade hit TP1 and then retraced. Obviously closing trade at TP1 completely must be balanced with letting the second part of a trade run the trend. I have decided subjecively that I want the second part of the trade to close for more pips than part one in over 40% of the trades. If this figure is less than 40% then I close everything at TP1. I update these figures each time I enter a trade and I adjust things accordingly.

The time issue is also based on results. I create a table with the times and the number of pips that have been made with that pair. I then also have a list of the strike rate for that pair and time. By looking at the two of these I almost build up a heat map of what times work and what don't.

These two parts of the plan are by their nature somewhat subjective which is why I have not elaborated in the past. They are based on my data which could vary from other peoples. This is where it is up to the individual trader to decide where to go. My feeling is that he/she should do ther own backtesting to see if this holds true for them.

However by optimising the trades that are taken I have found that it can improve the pip results by 30% and the financial returns by even more by allowing the size of stake to be ramped up as the results are more reliable.

This is the more advanced part of the system and I guess is the same for many systems. Do not rely on what I have said but try testing things to your own satisfaction.

A long winded answer to 2 short questions.

All the best
Mister ED

I will update again later this evening
  • #17
  • Nov 4, 2009 7:49pm Nov 4, 2009 7:49pm
GBPJPY 4:00 TP 107
Closed TP1 for 107, TP2 closed for 136 making 243 pips overall

GBPUSD 0:00 TP 75
Not taken due to optimisation but would have netted 165 pips

EURJPY 8:00 TP 85
Not taken due to optimisation but would have netted 96 pips

EURUSD 12:00 TP 53
Closed TP1 for 53 TP2 trailing with +29 pips for 82 pips so far but still open

USDCAD from yesterday TP2 -12 pips but still open

EURGBP Closed TP2 for -14 pips (making 21 pips for the trade)

AUDJPY 8:00
Not taken due to optimisation

NZDUSD 8:00 TP 64
Not closed but looks like a loser

USDJPY 8:00 TP 40
Closed for a loss of 80 pips

Overall up 117 pips for todays new trades even with the losses. As you can see some good trades would have been missed eg GBPUSD (+165) but also some bad ones eg AUDJPY (-160). Not the most stable day with the FOMC report from the US. I suspect the rest of the week could be quite choppy too. Still making pips.

All the best
Mister ED
  • #18
  • Nov 5, 2009 12:18am Nov 5, 2009 12:18am
Quoting Mister ED
Here is my trading journal that relates to my HA thread.

To understand the way the charts and trades are set up I would refer you to http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=182645

Note also that the trades that I am looking at are based on 4 hour charts supplied by FXDD and I am using optimised current trades setups that I have attached. These indicate the times and days that I look for possible trades on each pair. These are based on my past trades and are purely related to what I have seen on the charts, it is all based on...

Hi Mr Ed,

Thank you for providing your trade times/ days chart for the pairs.

I think I understand it all, but have a couple of questions to verify:

 

  1. Is FXDD still your signal source?
  2. If so, did it remain GMT+1 after adjustment for daylight savings?
  3. Does the check mark on the table indicate Trade and the X on the table indicate No Trade allowed?
  4. Do the days in your tables correspond to your local time or are they chart time? i.e. 0000 Monday chart time would actually be Sunday local time for Canadians.
  5. Or do you not trade Sunday?

Many thanks for a well compiled and thought out system. Longbar's EA is working very well and has helped provide the confidence to trade it live. I'm grateful to you both.

Best trading,

JR

  • #19
  • Nov 5, 2009 7:41pm Nov 5, 2009 7:41pm
Quoting JRpips8
Hi Mr Ed,

Thank you for providing your trade times/ days chart for the pairs.

I think I understand it all, but have a couple of questions to verify:
[list=1][*]Is FXDD still your signal source?[*]If so, did it remain GMT+1 after adjustment for daylight savings?[*]Does the check mark on the table indicate Trade and the X on the table indicate No Trade allowed?[*]Do the days in your tables correspond to your local time or are they chart time? i.e. 0000 Monday chart time would actually be Sunday local time for Canadians.[*]Or do you not trade...
Hi JR

Yes I still use FXDD. I'm not sure about the time but I think it is still GMT+1.
Yes the check mark means take a trade and the cross means pass on a trade, but these are always under review each month.
The time all relate to the chart times, therefore the 0:00 candle on Monday is actually 22:00 Sunday for me. I literally just trade what the charts show.

All the best,
Mister ED
  • #20
  • Nov 5, 2009 7:49pm Nov 5, 2009 7:49pm
NZDUSD 8:00 TP 62
Trade still ongoing

USDJPY 4:00 TP 39
Closed out for loss of 78 pips

USDJPY 20:00 TP 37
Trade ongoing

EURGBP had a couple of HA signal changes but the candle size was less than 50% ATR so no trade.
Probably no decent trades before tomorrow afternoon.

All the best,
Mister ED
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