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Silent Service Method

  • #5,601
  • Oct 31, 2009 9:00pm Oct 31, 2009 9:00pm
Quoting InfinitySL
From 10/18 (two weeks ago):



If only I were writing to comment on how I had just made 500 pips, sadly that's not the case, however after two weeks, this trade is close to 500pips to the good....
I agree with the thought that you absolutely cannot zoom down too much on a weekly trade. I wouldn't even bother looking at less that a daily chart, and even then......I wouldn't get too involved unless maybe you had a daily pinbar against you.

Maybe you should demo the weekly. It's mentally harder in some cases to be honest.....it's a totally different vibe as the other charts.

Chris
  • #5,602
  • Oct 31, 2009 10:23pm Oct 31, 2009 10:23pm
Agree with both of you. I think my main mistake with this CAD trade was putting on a bit too much risk for the potential volatility. I am more comfortable with 1/2 % of risk not a full 1% which is what i put on for this trade and got a bit too concerned with the unrealized P/L.

I think rather than going full-demo for weekly trades, I'll go micro-lots with somewhere like a .20% or .5% risk and that way I'm risking alot less, but it's still real money.
  • #5,603
  • Nov 1, 2009 6:27am Nov 1, 2009 6:27am
Quoting InfinitySL
Agree with both of you. I think my main mistake with this CAD trade was putting on a bit too much risk for the potential volatility. I am more comfortable with 1/2 % of risk not a full 1% which is what i put on for this trade and got a bit too concerned with the unrealized P/L.

I think rather than going full-demo for weekly trades, I'll go micro-lots with somewhere like a .20% or .5% risk and that way I'm risking alot less, but it's still real money.

Actually, I have known several traders that risk only 1/2% and they do quite well. When that's all you are risking, it is a lot easier to let a trade do it's thing. For example, if you have $10,000....that's only $50. It's a psychological thing.

Risk tolerance is different for each one of us. It's up to you to figure out what yours is.

Chris
  • #5,604
  • Nov 1, 2009 10:51am Nov 1, 2009 10:51am
Stefx/Clockwork -

Given the area & the Pin(ish) looking bar formed on the weekly, what's your current stance on the AUDCAD?

Here's my chart, zoomed in a bit:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audcad-weeklyarea-11.1.09.gif Size: 26 KB


Looks like this area has held up pretty well over the years (held in 1999, 2005, and 2008, although blew through it in 2004)... Doesn't hurt that it's relatively close to the magic number: 1.00...
  • #5,605
  • Nov 1, 2009 1:39pm Nov 1, 2009 1:39pm
That audcad is on my radar as well.
  • #5,606
  • Nov 1, 2009 7:59pm Nov 1, 2009 7:59pm
Quoting InfinitySL
Stefx/Clockwork -

Given the area & the Pin(ish) looking bar formed on the weekly, what's your current stance on the AUDCAD?

Here's my chart, zoomed in a bit:

Attachment

Looks like this area has held up pretty well over the years (held in 1999, 2005, and 2008, although blew through it in 2004)... Doesn't hurt that it's relatively close to the magic number: 1.00...
Right now, I have two charts I am watching closely.....one is GBP/CAD, and the other is AUD/CAD. Both say CAD is probably going to strengthen.

Oil is at support as well, which doesn't exactly hurt the case either.

Chris
  • #5,607
  • Nov 1, 2009 8:16pm Nov 1, 2009 8:16pm
A 2 month pinbar?!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpcad-2mopin.gif Size: 27 KB


There seems to be a lot of congestion between 1.77-1.83... Then again, that 600pip zone doesn't look as daunting compared to the 1500+pip area covered by that pinbar...
  • #5,608
  • Nov 1, 2009 11:11pm Nov 1, 2009 11:11pm
Quoting InfinitySL
A 2 month pinbar?!

Attachment

There seems to be a lot of congestion between 1.77-1.83... Then again, that 600pip zone doesn't look as daunting compared to the 1500+pip area covered by that pinbar...
I guess....but truthfully, I think it has a lot of issues trying to break higher. A ton of resistance.

Also, the CAD is showing potential strength on other charts as well....
  • #5,609
  • Nov 2, 2009 12:45am Nov 2, 2009 12:45am
Quoting InfinitySL
Stefx/Clockwork -
Given the area & the Pin(ish) looking bar formed on the weekly, what's your current stance on the AUDCAD?
My thoughts on this did not change since the last trade update in the following post and there I counted the probability of a weekly pin already into.
Quoting stefx
AUDCAD
This pair is definitely in an interesting area.
Have a nice one, Stefan.
10 x 100 = 100 x 10, stefx, retired scalper.
  • #5,610
  • Nov 2, 2009 8:12am Nov 2, 2009 8:12am
I got tired of waiting on youtube, so I put a video up on the front page of the website. I will be adding a new one every week or so....enjoy

Chris
  • #5,611
  • Nov 2, 2009 8:26am Nov 2, 2009 8:26am
Quoting clockwork71
I got tired of waiting on youtube, so I put a video up on the front page of the website. I will be adding a new one every week or so....enjoy

Chris

Hey Chris,

I only see a black screen but do hear your voice. Not sure if its me or something that went wrong with the video but just wanted to let you know
The nail that sticks out gets hammered back in
  • #5,612
  • Nov 2, 2009 1:22pm Nov 2, 2009 1:22pm
Just wondering, does anyone have anything to say about all the Pin Bars on 4-hr time frames on the Yen crosses?
  • #5,613
  • Nov 2, 2009 3:54pm Nov 2, 2009 3:54pm
Nothing tradeable here at the moment...but tis sure an interesting chart.
Cheers
CanuckCT

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU_Triangle.png Size: 40 KB
  • #5,614
  • Nov 2, 2009 7:15pm Nov 2, 2009 7:15pm
Quoting Danku
Just wondering, does anyone have anything to say about all the Pin Bars on 4-hr time frames on the Yen crosses?
Been really busy all day, and just looked. To be honest, most of these seem to be a little congested for my liking.....

Chris
  • #5,615
  • Nov 2, 2009 7:21pm Nov 2, 2009 7:21pm
Quoting Noloqy
Hey Chris,

I only see a black screen but do hear your voice. Not sure if its me or something that went wrong with the video but just wanted to let you know
It's an mp4, so it could be based on the browser you are using.....which one are you trying to watch with?
  • #5,616
  • Nov 2, 2009 7:42pm Nov 2, 2009 7:42pm
A penny stock. Actually, my sons have a bunch of Leapfrog's stuff......I liked this chart though. Here it is.....could go long with a rise in price of about 15 cents tomorrow.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: leapfrog.png Size: 67 KB
  • #5,617
  • Edited 9:23pm Nov 2, 2009 9:10pm | Edited 9:23pm
Some nice trades in the making on the pound/$



Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AU (Just b4 Rate Decision).jpg Size: 106 KB




Anybody even looking @ Aussie?? Rate Decision coming up.. Hmmm

So quiet!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: My GU Analysis 1-11-09.jpg Size: 95 KB
  • #5,618
  • Nov 2, 2009 10:36pm Nov 2, 2009 10:36pm
Quoting wh1zz0
Some nice trades in the making on the pound/$



Attachment



Anybody even looking @ Aussie?? Rate Decision coming up.. Hmmm

So quiet!

Oz says there's a raise coming. However......it's a matter of how much. .25% is figured, so I wouldn't look for much unless it's .50% or better yet - none. That would really shake things up.
  • #5,619
  • Nov 3, 2009 12:08am Nov 3, 2009 12:08am
Anyone else looking at this pin bar on the loony monthly chart. I am looking for it to drop down to the shoulder of the PB or the 61.8 fibo line and then head up. Of course I am also bearish equities so maybe I am biased. Cannot argue with a PB on monthly chart, though.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad.mthly.pb.110209.gif Size: 29 KB
  • #5,620
  • Nov 3, 2009 2:04am Nov 3, 2009 2:04am
Quoting clockwork71
Oz says there's a raise coming. However......it's a matter of how much. .25% is figured, so I wouldn't look for much unless it's .50% or better yet - none. That would really shake things up.

Nice call clockwork. The market loves surprises as usual. .25 was no news.
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