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Attachments: Another martingale system - but this one was tested since 1999!
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Another martingale system - but this one was tested since 1999!

  • #21
  • Nov 2, 2009 8:48am Nov 2, 2009 8:48am
Quoting Ucglobal
what i do understand about the drawdown is that if a deposit 1,000,000 usd i will probably see a drawdown of -530,000 usd???
Can you stand this??
The drawdown is not the biggest problem. The problem of the martingale is that your next loss is bigger than the sum of all the previous losses. So the next trade MUST be a winner, otherwise he loses everything.
  • #22
  • Nov 2, 2009 3:39pm Nov 2, 2009 3:39pm
Quoting Sauron
Nothing is certain, only the change so there's no way we could assure you that the system is going to work. You seek for an answer which doesn't exist.
If it looks good on paper just try it to see what will happen. If the black swan hits at least you tried. If it never hits you'll be rich.

Make a test with other pairs and tell us the results.
Exactly. No amount of back or forward testing can ever tell you if or when a 1-in-a-million event is more or less likely to occur; the statistical error in the result makes the test meaningless. That's what makes it a black swan.

In this sense, all martingales are effectively created equal.
  • #23
  • Nov 2, 2009 4:46pm Nov 2, 2009 4:46pm
Quoting PrymeTyme
hmmm

yea looks interresting ..
but waht if it doubles up 8 times at my very first trade ?
This is the crux of the issue. A Martingale can take time before you need to double up 8 times, but you never know when it is going to happen. Your data allowed you to build up a buffer before it happened, but what happens if it occurs in the first year. You are destroyed.
Also, there is a sense of data-fitting here. If you had looked at the data and the double up 8 times had happened in the first two years you would have discarded the data and it would never have been put here. So you have innocently and subconsciously data-fitted the information because it was the one that looks good.
  • #24
  • Nov 2, 2009 9:46pm Nov 2, 2009 9:46pm
Quoting yaniv_av
Hi All!

I have just finished developing a new system, base on martingales.
Now, I know, some of you would say immediately, without even hearing the concept of the system, “you’ll finish up dead”.
But what would you say if I tell you that I tested the system on 1 minute data, since December 1999 (I simply don’t have older data…)?
That means almost 10 years of 1 minute bars - more than 3.5 bars in the test!!
[font=Arial]In the...
Can you please share your system so that, we can try that out.

Thanks,
Prakash
  • #25
  • Last Post: Nov 2, 2009 10:17pm Nov 2, 2009 10:17pm
If there has been no black swan for 10 years it is bound to happen next year

With these sort of things if it looks good chuck a couple of grand in and leave it. Long term a couple of grand is nothing if it loses but if it wins....


max
Gravity goes both ways in forex...
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