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James16+Rayanmcd(Jan kone) and ME 7 replies

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Jankone M5 thread

  • #1,801
  • Oct 31, 2009 8:03pm Oct 31, 2009 8:03pm
sunday 2a.m in here and man...i told you, we have best beer in czech republic... would be nice to meet some people here in real life... and....i'm seriously




I live for my dreams, I live for my goals. Nobody can't stop me.

I'm living my dream.
  • #1,802
  • Oct 31, 2009 8:14pm Oct 31, 2009 8:14pm
Quote
sunday 2a.m in here and man...

Quote
i told you, we have best beer in czech republic...

I think you have tasted some of that beer tonight
  • #1,803
  • Oct 31, 2009 8:21pm Oct 31, 2009 8:21pm
yes...and i'm here listening to some music and arriving to some club...
I'm just happy, that i did this .... I said one day " I WILL MAKE A FORUM" and I did make a good forum, people post more and more, 28 people online was best result and REALLY good trades from members in here are even better results( posted by "new" traders...... I'm just happy

Quoting artov
I think you have tasted some of that beer tonight
  • #1,804
  • Oct 31, 2009 9:42pm Oct 31, 2009 9:42pm
Quoting Jankone
yes...and i'm here listening to some music and arriving to some club...
I'm just happy, that i did this .... I said one day " I WILL MAKE A FORUM" and I did make a good forum, people post more and more, 28 people online was best result and REALLY good trades from members in here are even better results( posted by "new" traders...... I'm just happy
Trading is a delicate balance of Strategy , Money management and Psychology
  • #1,805
  • Nov 1, 2009 6:25am Nov 1, 2009 6:25am
Quoting Jduester
I'm guessing Jankone will comment here too, but I can give you my experience. I am currently in my second month of formal demoing this method. I read through this thread and RyanMCD's posts prior to demoing.

From there, I was able to come up with several profit taking strategies that I'm testing on each trade I take. I will post these results at the end of the month, but here are the strategies I'm testing.

I only trade E/U 5Min with this strategy. I generally enter on the break of the pinbar, but do sometimes enter on close of bar. I always place stop 1 pip beyond tail of pinbar. I then position size accordingly. I generally look for trades at swing highs/lows, which cuts out a ton of pinbars that eventually fail. Most of my trades have divergence (regardless of trend direction).

Exit strategies I'm testing:
- Full TP at 1.5R
- Full TP at 2R
- 1/2 TP at 1R, 1/2 at 3R (don't move stop... if stop is hit, it's a b/e trade)
- Move stop to b/e at 2R, Full TP at 4R

I'll leave you in suspense until early next week... remind me to post the sheet with results if I forget. I plan to start live next month with a small % of my account.

Jankone and Ryan are right. This strategy is really all you need. But I don't think I could have started with this strategy. I spent my first 7 months with price action demoing only daily and weekly tf. I didn't realize it at the time, but that really helped me develop the patience necessary profitably trade. If you are not patient, you will be slaughtered on this tf. Reading the James16 Chart Thread helped me immensely. Check it out.

Hopefully this helps.

Josh

- PS, Where's Jig been lately?
As promised, I'm posting my demo results below.

Only E/U 5min trades
56 Trades in about 2months
60.7% of trades reached 1:1 (E=0.25)
46.4% of trades reached 2:1 (E=0.393)


I had slightly more With trend than Against trend trades, but the results were very similar. Trades where I felt had no trend did surprisingly better than those with/against a trend.

Average risk/trade was 10 pips, generally waiting for the break of the pinbar for entry and using the end of the pinbar (or 1pip beyond) as the stop loss.

•For trades that ran past 4R, the average was 10.6R, while the median was 7.8R
•One trade would still be running, up 37R.
•Win% was better in October than September, showing improvement.

Results for the 4 strategies:
A.Full TP at 1.5R
•48.2%, E=0.205, 11.5R total gain
B.Full TP at 2R
•46.4%, E=0.393, 19R total gain
C.½ at 1R, ½ at 3R
•47.5%, E= 0.425 (excludes 16b/e trades, so less opportunity multiplier)
•62.5%, E=0.304 (if b/e trades are included in ave. win), 17R total gain
D.Move to B/E at 2R, full TP at 4R
•27.9%, E= 0.395 (excludes 13b/e trades, so less opportunity multiplier)
•44.6%, E=0.304 (if b/e trades are included in ave. win), 17R total gain

Strategy, B (taking full profit at 2R) worked out the best.

I will continue to track this data, as well as a strategy of moving to b/e at 1R, full tp at 2R…(as this will be close to what I will trade live.

It must be conceded that I don’t have near enough data to conclude anything, but it is refreshing to know that all 4 methods would be profitable.

I’ll employ a strategy that moves to b/e sometime around 8-10pips or 1R. Similar to how I design all my trade management strategies, I try to concentrate on risk first and let the profits work themselves out, per #34 on the attachment (not created by myself). I’ll continue to be picky in my trade selection, with the goal of increasing the expectancy by both increasing the winning percentage (more b/e trades, less [full] losers) and letting some trades run through 2R.

It is important to note that no trade is the same as another and these results can only be used as a minor guide for my trading. After 10K trades, perhaps I can redo these calculations and then have some confidence in the data. At this point, it’s all about the old cliché, close out losers within your risk parameters and let the winners run.

Potential Path to Success:
- Read all of this thread.
- Read all of RyanMCD's posts (not just those on this thread)
- Read all of Jankone's posts (not just those on this thread)
- Read a significant part of the James16 Chart Thread to become familiar with price action patterns, s/r, space and location.
- Demo for several months to become familiar with the method, while also developing trade management styles.
- Reflect on your results and employ one strategy for live trading. Do not blow live money until you have first proven profitability on demo.
- Rinse and Repeat. Stay sharp. Help others.

Thank you to Ryan, Jankone, and Jig.

Josh
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf 40 Bits Of Wisdom.pdf   97 KB | 783 downloads
  • #1,806
  • Nov 1, 2009 6:49am Nov 1, 2009 6:49am
Quoting Jduester
At this point, it’s all about the old cliché, close out losers within your risk parameters and let the winners run.
Strong results here bro

I usually try to read every post in this thread and in the J16 thread, they are the only two threads actually worth anything in this God Forsaken forum of late. I get sick of reading the same rubbish and listening to simply incorrect opinions. Eventhough I do not post much anymore, as I feel I am repeating myself and simply there are better posters who can say things much better than I can.

I actually knew the 2R strategy was going to be the most profitable without even looking at the results . I have yet to honestly see somebody with a system which had less than 1:1 RR succeed over the long term, as you are going against the old cliche.

I just want to inform people visiting/passing through this thread that this is probably the best method on here along with it's older brother the J16 thread, I have been supporting myself fully from trading for a good while now, and still have money left over to compound.

For the past three months I have been averaging just over 4% a week, with not a single losing week. with last week being a massive 8% or so (Yen pairs really turned good). Trading basically this method across six pairs with and keeping the %R very low.

Josh's results show this as well, this method has one of the best edges to be found here on FF, as well as that the trades are extremely frequent (If you can watch the market all that time that is ) especially so if you trade a few pairs like I do.

Hmmm, been a while since I posted on FF

Regards,
Jig
  • #1,807
  • Nov 1, 2009 8:38am Nov 1, 2009 8:38am
Great research !
Goood work man

Quoting Jduester
As promised, I'm posting my demo results below.

Only E/U 5min trades
56 Trades in about 2months
60.7% of trades reached 1:1 (E=0.25)
46.4% of trades reached 2:1 (E=0.393)


I had slightly more With trend than Against trend trades, but the results were very similar....
  • #1,808
  • Nov 1, 2009 9:00am Nov 1, 2009 9:00am
Quoting Jankone
sunday 2a.m in here and man...i told you, we have best beer in czech republic... would be nice to meet some people here in real life... and....i'm seriously




I live for my dreams, I live for my goals. Nobody can't stop me.

I'm living my dream.
With that attitude, nothing can hold you down. Damn, it's infectious. It really is and I love it.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #1,809
  • Nov 1, 2009 10:15am Nov 1, 2009 10:15am
Quoting Jigsaw
Strong results here bro

I usually try to read every post in this thread and in the J16 thread, they are the only two threads actually worth anything in this God Forsaken forum of late. I get sick of reading the same rubbish and listening to simply incorrect opinions....
hey jig
in the past you had a couple of charts posted, mind sharing a couple more
i remember ur examples being fantastic
Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #1,810
  • Nov 1, 2009 1:29pm Nov 1, 2009 1:29pm
Quoting Jduester
As promised, I'm posting...
Thanks for sharing Josh.
another very inspiring meticulosity.
  • #1,811
  • Nov 1, 2009 8:00pm Nov 1, 2009 8:00pm
Quoting Jduester
I'm guessing Jankone will comment here too, but I can give you my experience. I am currently in my second month of formal demoing this method. I read through this thread and RyanMCD's posts prior to demoing.

From there, I was able to come up with several profit taking strategies that I'm testing on each trade I take. I will post these results at the end of the month, but here are the strategies I'm testing.

I only trade E/U 5Min with this strategy. I generally enter on the break of the pinbar, but do sometimes enter on close of bar. I always...
josh thanks and look forward to seeing the results next week. keeping accurate results like that for every trade is no small job. so i see your target levels are all fixed-R(not by technicals).

yes i read J16 too. patience is definite one of the most valuable take away for me.

(i was not able to trade this system or read FF all week, good to see more people making pips with it).
  • #1,812
  • Nov 1, 2009 11:13pm Nov 1, 2009 11:13pm
Quoting dhh
josh thanks and look forward to seeing the results next week.....
bro, he already did post it.
kindly see the link within my latest post.
  • #1,813
  • Nov 2, 2009 3:16am Nov 2, 2009 3:16am
Hello,
conter trend pin bar on eurusd TF5min... 2R objectif.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_2009-11-02_ut5_001.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #1,814
  • Nov 2, 2009 3:58am Nov 2, 2009 3:58am
Quoting cignus
Hello,
conter trend pin bar on eurusd TF5min... 2R objectif.
I played this one too but got out because of this little pin! It was to small to play it but it got me out!
Got 4 pips out of it!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: sp.jpg Size: 114 KB
  • #1,815
  • Nov 2, 2009 4:03am Nov 2, 2009 4:03am
Quoting cignus
Hello,
conter trend pin bar on eurusd TF5min... 2R objectif.
Careful here Cignus. It was posted a little while back (or maybe in J16?) that divergence is best used when it doesn't go so many bars back... I try to only use divergence of the last 10-12 bars. Anything more than that seems to be a considerably weaker signal.

Josh
  • #1,816
  • Nov 2, 2009 4:05am Nov 2, 2009 4:05am
Quoting brasilero
I played this one too but got out because of this little pin! It was to small to play it but it got me out!
I actually took this long with trend for 2R+. Glad you got out without a loss. With-trend seems to be soooo much easier.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 110209_3.20l.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #1,817
  • Nov 2, 2009 4:09am Nov 2, 2009 4:09am
  •  kean
  • | Joined Sep 2008 | Status: James16group Lifetime Member | 92 Posts
Hi Jankone,
I just found this thread so this is my first post here. Can I just ask you if you consider trading Outside Bars or 2 Bar Pinbars with this system?
Kean
  • #1,818
  • Nov 2, 2009 4:23am Nov 2, 2009 4:23am
Quoting brasilero
I played this one too but got out because of this little pin!.....
Got 4 pips out of it!
Awesome decision in the heat of the moment, imho.
Since this is countertrend, we must pay attention to price's momentum as it goes against the trend.
looking at your chart, signals to exit, to me at least, were small PB (off of 21ma &/or midBB), price rejection off of 21ma &/or midBB, plus "RSI 50LR" (50 Line/level Rejection).
Hopefully cignus made a similar decision.
  • #1,819
  • Edited 9:18am Nov 2, 2009 4:27am | Edited 9:18am
Quoting Jduester
Careful here Cignus. It was posted a little while back (or maybe in J16?) that divergence is best used when it doesn't go so many bars back... I try to only use divergence of the last 10-12 bars....
I believe u are at least referring to 1 of benji's posts.
  • #1,820
  • Nov 2, 2009 4:29am Nov 2, 2009 4:29am
Quoting kean
...if you consider trading Outside Bars or 2 Bar Pinbars with this system?
Hey Kean,
welcome in behalf of all here.

i believe he mainly trades big PB's. some here trade OB's/etc. too.
some here, like me, believe this method is james16's ''little brother'', so in that line of thought, u may try trading other PA setups (OBs, etc) with this method.
Hope that helps
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