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  • #121
  • Oct 31, 2009 2:44pm Oct 31, 2009 2:44pm
Quoting PrymeTyme
Hi all


well every successful Poker player BJ card counter (back in the days)
and even the pro traders out there ,has to withstand draw downs ..
thats part of the buissnes..

you need to friggin manage your money.. to withstand those loosing streaks

if you have an 1% edge you will be profitable in the loong run .. if and only if you still have left some money in your account after a loosing streak..
Gambling is my family business. My father, a bookmaker (not a punter or gambler as many call punters), went twice bankrupt in his lifetime despite having 10.555% fixed odds (edge) in his favor, because odds that were in his favor did not even out for extended periods. But in other times he just minted money. This forex is no different.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #122
  • Oct 31, 2009 3:01pm Oct 31, 2009 3:01pm
Quoting Turveyd
Thats the problem with bumping your account upto say 3% risk, it's all well and good if your first trade profits ( not win's thats the gamblers ), but if you get 2 - 3 losers straight away that'll have a bad effect on your account and you physiologically.
Turveyd, this is the reason I remain content.

I got less than 100 pips in those three major moves in last one week. Because these were very high risk moves. At one occassion I had to stand right infront of the express train to bank 10 pips at 1:1 r/r. That was probably easiest and most comfortable of all pips I got in this whole episode. I am not concerned if an express train goes 1000 pips against me, the maximum it takes from me is my stoploss 8 pips away.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #123
  • Oct 31, 2009 8:03pm Oct 31, 2009 8:03pm
Quoting Chicky
I am not concerned if an express train goes 1000 pips against me, the maximum it takes from me is my stoploss 8 pips away.
And that is why god invented stop losses. To give traders a fighting chance against the brokers.
  • #124
  • Oct 31, 2009 8:46pm Oct 31, 2009 8:46pm
Quoting Chicky
Turveyd, this is the reason I remain content.

I got less than 100 pips in those three major moves in last one week. Because these were very high risk moves. At one occassion I had to stand right infront of the express train to bank 10 pips at 1:1 r/r. That was probably easiest and most comfortable of all pips I got in this whole episode. I am not concerned if an express train goes 1000 pips against me, the maximum it takes from me is my stoploss 8 pips away.

Okay I'm CONFUSED!!!

You talk like a swing trader after 100pip moves then 8pip SL ( 10 with Spread I guess ), so your a 10pip in and out scalper.

Stop cutting your profit at 10, follow with your stop take EJ for instance there are a lot of 30 - 50 pip moves and even 100pip moves with the trend that are get able with a 8/10SL, think about it risk 1% to make 3-10%, even if taking the extra risk drops your Win rate to 50% or even 40% your still going to be making a boat load more money.

Above just clicked to me, I'm going to accept a lower win rate in order to be in for bigger longer moves and move my SL up to reduce the loss when it fails so not a big deal.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #125
  • Edited Nov 1, 2009 2:10am Oct 31, 2009 10:22pm | Edited Nov 1, 2009 2:10am
Quoting Turveyd
Okay I'm CONFUSED!!!

You talk like a swing trader after 100pip moves then 8pip SL ( 10 with Spread I guess ), so your a 10pip in and out scalper.

Stop cutting your profit at 10, follow with your stop take EJ for instance there are a lot of 30 - 50 pip moves and even 100pip moves with the trend that are get able with a 8/10SL, think about it risk 1% to make 3-10%, even if taking the extra risk drops your Win rate to 50% or even 40% your still going to be making a boat load more money.

Above just clicked to me, I'm going to accept a lower...
Turveyd, I am a very unfair trader. I don't like to pay anything to this market. Not even the fair price. I want everything for free. If it's free, I would ask for "buy one get both free".

If I want to enter a position that would require 40 pip sl, first try to get those 40 pips from the market risking about 10 pips. If market gives me those 40 pips would take the position, otherwise may or may not decide to take a position and wait for the next set-up.

If I am expecting a break of a major resistance, would try to get few pips for every failed attempt pa makes at the resistance, accumulating money for my stoploss.

If I fail, no worries, many pips after the break compensate more than the loss.

Kindly check my Avatar Line above, what do you expect from me?

ps. How many times you see your position going into positive and negative before a break finally occurs? Why should I waste those pips? I give a damn if it is scalp, swing, position, medium term, long-term, counter-trend, trend or whatever trade, as long as it helps me grow my account in the safest possible way.

I am in this business not to lose money.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #126
  • Oct 31, 2009 11:30pm Oct 31, 2009 11:30pm
Quoting capitalx
And that is why god invented stop losses. To give traders a fighting chance against the brokers.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #127
  • Nov 1, 2009 8:38am Nov 1, 2009 8:38am
Quoting Chicky
Turveyd, I am a very unfair trader. I don't like to pay anything to this market. Not even the fair price. I want everything for free. If it's free, I would ask for "buy one get both free".

If I want to enter a position that would require 40 pip sl, first try to get those 40 pips from the market risking about 10 pips. If market gives me those 40 pips would take the position, otherwise may or may not decide to take a position and wait for the next set-up.

If I am expecting a break of a major resistance, would try to get few pips for every failed...
So your a pretty full on anything goes, jump on micro trends day trader then, cool!!

No issues with your 10SL but 10TP is costing you I'd bet, if you trading with the slightly longer term trend you should be able to see, 20, 30, 40, 50+ at times, risking 10 and when the opportunity arises making even 30 frequently is going to make your account grow much faster.

Wizz0 on my M1 threads been at times risking 10-15 and getting 100 recently, with a 70% win rate still for example!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #128
  • Edited 3:14pm Nov 1, 2009 3:02pm | Edited 3:14pm
Quoting Turveyd
So your a pretty full on anything goes, jump on micro trends day trader then, cool!!

No issues with your 10SL but 10TP is costing you I'd bet, if you trading with the slightly longer term trend you should be able to see, 20, 30, 40, 50+ at times, risking 10 and when the opportunity arises making even 30 frequently is going to make your account grow much faster.

Wizz0 on my M1 threads been at times risking 10-15 and getting 100 recently, with a 70% win rate still for example!!
This is somewhat where I want to get to, with the difference that my aim is to have 100/150 pip sl with profit target of 400/500 pips at success ratio of 60%-70%.

But at present my limited capital does not allow risking 100/150 pips. I work very hard, let go many so so opportunities, remain patient and content with small profits in order to make market loan me this risk money. Once I get this loan, go for the bigger trades risking that borrowed money. Only two or three bigger successful trades will put me on the highway.

This is what many successful traders did including Jesse Livermore, and more recently Jacko.

But this is a long way, may take months or probably a couple of years and during that time, I am not going to allow this market rob me of my capital. I am the thief, not the market.

Turveyd, I really appreciate your good advices they help me think clearly and refine what I do. Thanks buddy.

ps. Patience and confidence is the key. Xaron faced initial drawdown of about 20% but now his profits are about 150% in just few months.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #129
  • Nov 1, 2009 3:18pm Nov 1, 2009 3:18pm
Quoting Chicky
This is somewhat where I want to get to, with the difference that my aim is to have 100/150 pip sl with profit target of 400/500 pips at success ratio of 60%-70%.

But at present my limited capital does not allow risking 100/150 pips. I work very hard, let go many so so opportunities, remain patient and content with small profits in order to make market loan me this risk money. Once I get this loan, go for the bigger trades risking that borrowed money. Only two or three bigger successful trades will put me on the highway.

This is what many successful...

100SL/150TP isn't trading, it's Hoping there just aren't enough moves to support that, you'll average win ratio will drop to 55% at best doing so.

The longer your holding a trade, the less control you have over it your allowing to much ( from the trade entry point ) randomness ie news and other unseen things to pull the market around.

Not to say, 100 - 200 Pip profits can't happen, but you can get them on a 10-15 SL, with patience and trailing with a stop in order not to give too much back.

So pull your TP, set your sights ( for EJ ) at 20-30pips in general, but sometimes expect to get lucky and get in at the bottom on bigger moves, then hold on tight and trail that SL.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #130
  • Nov 1, 2009 3:31pm Nov 1, 2009 3:31pm
Quoting Chicky
This is somewhat where I want to get to, with the difference that my aim is to have 100/150 pip sl with profit target of 400/500 pips at success ratio of 60%-70%.

This is what many successful traders did including Jesse Livermore, and more recently Jacko.
.

Not wanting to be disrespectful to you in any way Turveyd but you have posted that your account is about $200 in size.
Jacko trades at $2000 a pip . and Jesse Livermore was one of the best traders ever lived.
  • #131
  • Nov 1, 2009 3:40pm Nov 1, 2009 3:40pm
Quoting Turveyd
100SL/150TP isn't trading, it's Hoping there just aren't enough moves to support that, you'll average win ratio will drop to 55% at best doing so.

The longer your holding a trade, the less control you have over it your allowing to much ( from the trade entry point ) randomness ie news and other unseen things to pull the market around.

Not to say, 100 - 200 Pip profits can't happen, but you can get them on a 10-15 SL, with patience and trailing with a stop in order not to give too much back.

So pull your TP, set your sights ( for EJ )...
Correct. But I somehow have to do something that increases my capital to the level that assures reasonable consistent returns in the future i.e. a cash cow.

The present economic situation and volatility is something which I want to use as a leverage to get to that point. Once market is in equilibrium we may go back to 50/80 pip range like old dull days when trend becomes friend. I have put off "consistently profitable" policy for those days.

Market now a days is giving lemons, so let's make lemonade. There will be big moves until new economic order takes some shape. If I try to be consistent in this volatile period my fate won't be much different from an EA or many systems that work in certain situations but not in others.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #132
  • Nov 1, 2009 3:47pm Nov 1, 2009 3:47pm
Quoting Chicky
Correct. But I somehow have to do something that increases my capital to the level that assures reasonable consistent returns in the future i.e. a cash cow.

The present economic situation and volatility is something which I want to use as a leverage to get to that point. Once market is in equilibrium we may go back to 50/80 pip range like old dull days when trend becomes friend. I have put off "consistently profitable" policy for those days.

Market now a days is giving lemons, so let's make lemonade. There will be big moves until new economic...

The market is great for intraday with trend plays recently, it's giving 100+ pip moves frequently being around at the start is tricky though, it's absolutely useless on a multiday hold basis though, trends just aren't holding in that way, much better off trading Stocks via a Spot account if thats what your after.

Pull up your old trades and check out if you could of made more or not and how often, expect a slight drop in your win rate, but if your getting 3%+ on some single trades then it's a trade off which is worth it.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #133
  • Nov 1, 2009 3:50pm Nov 1, 2009 3:50pm
Quoting Turveyd
The longer your holding a trade, the less control you have over it your allowing to much ( from the trade entry point ) randomness ie news and other unseen things to pull the market around.

Not to say, 100 - 200 Pip profits can't happen, but you can get them on a 10-15 SL, with patience and trailing with a stop in order not to give too much back.

So pull your TP, set your sights ( for EJ ) at 20-30pips in general, but sometimes expect to get lucky and get in at the bottom on bigger moves, then hold on tight and trail that SL....
Those two comments are misleading and dangerous.
The longer your holding a trade, the less control you have over it? I dont think so. The less time you hold a trade with a small stop loss the more you will be stopped out by the random noise in the market.

Not to say 100-200 Pips profits cant happen, but you can get them on a 10-15 pip SL ? I don't think so. The random noise will take that size stops out 99.9% of the time at some time during the move to the 100-200 pip profit
  • #134
  • Nov 1, 2009 3:55pm Nov 1, 2009 3:55pm
Quoting cyberfx
Those two comments are misleading and dangerous.
The longer your holding a trade, the less control you have over it? I dont think so. The less time you hold a trade with a small stop loss the more you will be stopped out by the random noise in the market.

Not to say 100-200 Pips profits cant happen, but you can get them on a 10-15 pip SL ? I don't think so. The random noise will take that size stops out 99.9% of the time at some time during the move to the 100-200 pip profit

No there not, there just counter to how you've been taught to think about the markets.

Check my M1 Thread, Wizz0's making 100pip trades currently, with 10-15SL's he's done loads of them aswell not just a 1 off fluke.

You've been taught by Jacko, that can't trade but talks the talk and has convinced people to spend there money on him.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #135
  • Nov 1, 2009 4:07pm Nov 1, 2009 4:07pm
Quoting cyberfx
Those two comments are misleading and dangerous.
The longer your holding a trade, the less control you have over it? I dont think so. The less time you hold a trade with a small stop loss the more you will be stopped out by the random noise in the market.

Not to say 100-200 Pips profits cant happen, but you can get them on a 10-15 pip SL ? I don't think so. The random noise will take that size stops out 99.9% of the time at some time during the move to the 100-200 pip profit
Yes Cyber, this is how I think, but at the same time good r/r is also very important.

This market moves in such a way that sometimes it supports and sometimes it defies each theory. Therefore, no one can be right all the time. This is hard reality of this market.

The best way is to combine. If my stop loss is 150 and tp 400 points, keep on adding positions until pa get to about 30/40 pip range of my sl. Then I count my 400 pips from this point with the option of getting out at any point I think appropriate depending on market situation.

Any fixed system, to me is recipe for disaster. This market requires very open minded traders.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #136
  • Nov 1, 2009 4:11pm Nov 1, 2009 4:11pm
Quoting Chicky

The best way is to combine. If my stop loss is 150 and tp 400 points, keep on adding positions until pa get to about 30/40 pip range of my sl. The I count my 400 pips from this point with the option of getting out any point I think appropriate depending on market situation.

Any fixed system, to me is recipe for disaster. This market requires very open minded traders.
Thats just playing a math's game, which okay is the only way if you view the market is completely random, there are really short term trends ( think 10mins ) and Medium term ( think 3 - 4 hour ) trends frequently which are exploitable so no real need to go to a random number beater.

Right about the last part, not much of that around this forum though.

And system's don't work not long term, thats why there is not 1 EA thats over all profitable, got to learn to think and adapt and overcome to all market conditions.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #137
  • Nov 1, 2009 4:33pm Nov 1, 2009 4:33pm
Quoting Turveyd
Thats just playing a math's game, which okay is the only way if you view the market is completely random, there are really short term trends ( think 10mins ) and Medium term ( think 3 - 4 hour ) trends frequently which are exploitable so no real need to go to a random number beater.

Right about the last part, not much of that around this forum though.

And system's don't work not long term, thats why there is not 1 EA thats over all profitable, got to learn to think and adapt and overcome to all market conditions.
I think I was misunderstood.

We are on same page. This market is not at all random and can never be one, rather it always seeks equilibrium.

I do not suggest placing trades on any math. The econominc factors, demand/supply, how traders take/liquidate positions, sovereign interests and price benchmarks direct this market and this can never be random. I use calculation as part of money management.

But when in Vegas, use calculation for both i.e. placing bets and money management. This is what differentiates speculation from gambling.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #138
  • Nov 1, 2009 4:41pm Nov 1, 2009 4:41pm
Chicky, Turveyd, you both should take a breath for a minute I think. You both seem to acknowledge that there is no one correct way to trade, and a lot of incorrect ways to trade. Every trader has to use a system with which they can feel comfortable, and if you can exercise any particular method profitably then who cares about any of the other systems or methods!?


Quoting Turveyd
And system's don't work not long term, thats why there is not 1 EA thats over all profitable, got to learn to think and adapt and overcome to all market conditions.
The truth of this statement is that it is not easy to put a human decision making process onto paper as a written plan. If you could write down, in english, the process needed to make profitable trades then you would be able to write an effective EA. I did try a couple of times with VT trader and discovered that the programming language is simply pants. Life is too short to move on and learn MT4/5, and so I resolved to do it with something like C++ when I can be arsed to spend the time learning the API from any of the providers.

If any of you hits on a winning EA then be sure to keep it to yourself (until you retire). If it should get out then the market will become distorted with many copies of that EA running all around the world, and then the EA will become ineffective. You can be sure that people are working on an EA that learns how to trade for itself. The ECU in your car is continually making adjustments for real-world conditions and optimising the overall system performance. For an EA the trick will be to determine what is a good or bad result, beyond simply measuring profit or loss, in order to have a possibility of a self-teaching/learning EA.

Until that happens, we still have a chance!
Minesweeper target: 284
  • #139
  • Nov 1, 2009 4:55pm Nov 1, 2009 4:55pm
Quoting Turveyd

And system's don't work not long term, thats why there is not 1 EA thats over all profitable, got to learn to think and adapt and overcome to all market conditions.
Very misleading statement. There may not have been one you have seen but there are profitable EA's that have been running for years. Just because I like to trade manually, doesn't mean I don't have a profitable EA running on another account.

And for EA's, think beyond just the simple ones you see for metatrader. My EA's are stand alone windows apps that interface through the brokers API's.
  • #140
  • Nov 1, 2009 5:00pm Nov 1, 2009 5:00pm
Quoting Turveyd
Why else does anyone setup a pay site, seen 100's of them and loads of people lose lots of money getting sucked in by them, no seen a real 1 yet and his trading defies any kinda of real logic.
What a load of shite. I am in Jacko's group and I can tell you straight up he is a top line trader and is incredibly professional. Thanks to him I have made a big, sizable bucket of money over the last 8 months and have made the decision to use that money to go full time trading.
His trading record can be seen by everyone here and his later trades can be seen by every one of his trading group. We know because we trade them. We trade his winning trades too.
I am not surprised that he has been succcessful in having people join his group. His trading performance is top of the line. And if he is making money from having the group, what do I care. As long as he helps me and others make a ton of money, I don't care. He has a Midas touch with every business he does. He is a winner trader and a winner businessman. He is an experienced professional trader.
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