What's the best 5 year investment? | Forex Factory

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What's the best 5 year investment?

  • #1
  • First Post: Oct 25, 2009 2:30pm Oct 25, 2009 2:30pm
Hi

Looking ahead what do you think is the best investment for the next 5 years.

It could be:

Gold
Oil
Alternate energy
green technology
nano technology
Any currency?
etc etc

Post your opinion and the reasons.

My choice is RMB. Its not freely tradeable but I believe the currency will give amazing returns over 5 years.

Reasons:

The world's manufacturing is shifting to China.
A forward looking community.
People are hard working and look to work.(personal experience)
Socially very conscious. i.e. they understand no one works for free and everyone should be compensated according to work.(personal experience)
Strong military
A government which managed to change a desperately poor country into a phenomenon.

Doubts:

I know this is in direct contradiction of the above but..
We dont know anything about the functioning or the viability of the economy. All we know is the system is working right now.

Regards

Neo
  • #2
  • Oct 25, 2009 2:50pm Oct 25, 2009 2:50pm
So you're Chinese or from Chinese descent?

I definitely don't doubt that there will be some fine investments in China.

You state that the "world's manufacturing is shifting to China". I say, the world's manufacturing HAS shifted to China and will continue unless some drastic steps are taken elsewhere.
  • #3
  • Oct 25, 2009 3:27pm Oct 25, 2009 3:27pm
I have the ultimate answer to your question, so don't laugh:

The Chinese automobile market is at a stage that is comparable to the number of people who owned automobiles in the United States at around the year 1915. Only about 10-15% of all Chinese citizens own a car. I did a little research and found that the second largest automobile manufacturer in China has stock that trades on both the mainland and on the Hong Kong stock exchange. The name of the company is Dongfeng Motor Group. I actually read an article on Reuters that quotes the Dongfeng CEO as saying that sales growth is expected to grow at 25-30% for the next 3-5 years. That in and of itself is an excellent reason to buy Dongfeng stock.

Unfortunately, only chinese citizens can directly buy stock in chinese companies. The stock also trades as H shares on the pink sheets (don't ask me how this works, I really don't know) as DNFGF.

I bought 700 shares and I'm already up by about 10%.

Just be careful, my broker slapped me with a $75 fee for trading an international stock that I was unaware of.

I am convinced that it will go up at least 3 times from the current price in a year's time.
  • #4
  • Oct 25, 2009 3:40pm Oct 25, 2009 3:40pm
Quoting GulfCoastPip
So you're Chinese or from Chinese descent?

I definitely don't doubt that there will be some fine investments in China.

You state that the "world's manufacturing is shifting to China". I say, the world's manufacturing HAS shifted to China and will continue unless some drastic steps are taken elsewhere.
Hi GulfCoastPip

No I am neither chinese nor of chinese descent.

I am an Indian. I attend the trade fairs held in China for import/export opportunities. Interact with a lot of Chinese students studying english or fresh out of university cause half of them work for companies doing imports and exports.

@ Danoid

Great info there Danoid. I will do some cross checking and see how or if I can buy this stock.

Lets keep the ideas coming.

Neo
  • #5
  • Oct 25, 2009 3:46pm Oct 25, 2009 3:46pm
Well, that's great. So your post was false. You have no personal experience, only second and third hand experience.

Regardless. There's still many fine opportunities in China.


Quoting neo1599
Hi GulfCoastPip

No I am neither chinese nor of chinese descent.

I am an Indian. I attend the trade fairs held in China for import/export opportunities. Interact with a lot of Chinese students studying english or fresh out of university cause half of them work for companies doing imports and exports.

@ Danoid

Great info there Danoid. I will do some cross checking and see how or if I can buy this stock.

Lets keep the ideas coming.

Neo
  • #6
  • Oct 25, 2009 4:01pm Oct 25, 2009 4:01pm
The Particular company PPL (Traded as PPD on the NYSE)

Reasons:

37 year old business.
Traded openly on the NYSE since 1999.
Has had continual Growth over the past 15 years.
Listed as "Top 200 Companies in North America" by Forbes Magazine.
Listed in many others as "Top 100 Fastest Growing Business in North America".
Is NOT Going anywhere any time soon.
Still has the Founder at the helm.

Will this be the ONLY investment that is going to be good over the next 5 years? no, but it's still a good investment.
  • #7
  • Oct 25, 2009 4:05pm Oct 25, 2009 4:05pm
This is an excellent thread that has been started, I can't wait to see other peoples' ideas.

I have one more idea:

I also have some shares of the second largest fast food company in Brazil, which goes by the ticker BOBS. This company sells franchises of Pizza Hut and KFC restaurants in Brazil, then takes a cut of their sales. Considering that the Olympics will be held there in 2016 (and also a big soccer championship before that), tons of people will be visiting Brazil and looking for something to eat. Sales should do well in Brazil, as they have done well in China with YUM brands.

Unfortunately, the stock is very thinly traded and this is almost pure speculation.
  • #8
  • Oct 25, 2009 4:14pm Oct 25, 2009 4:14pm
Quoting Pharoah
The Particular company PPL (Traded as PPD on the NYSE)
????
Um, maybe you should just stick to Forex!
  • #9
  • Oct 25, 2009 7:05pm Oct 25, 2009 7:05pm
Quoting GulfCoastPip
Well, that's great. So your post was false. You have no personal experience, only second and third hand experience.

Regardless. There's still many fine opportunities in China.
@ GulfCoastPip

Well, in my defense: I have been to factories in China, interacted with workers, managers, owners, taxi drivers(very funny interaction). I call that personal experience. Its upto interpretation I guess.

The taxi driver is the one who made me realize the level of social conscience and knowledge. I was going from an Industrial town to another city in the cab with an interpreter. I ran out of smokes and bought a pack at a rest stop. Since the place was only selling chinese cigs I bought a pack which I had seen a factory owner smoke. Sat in the car and off we went. My interpreter after some conversation with the driver told me not to be offended, that the driver was saying the pack of cig's cost more than the average salary a worker makes in India, regardless to say I was completely taken aback. He then offered me his cig's which were equally good at a fraction of the cost. We laughed together when my interpreter told him why I took that pack(cuz I didn't know any other which would be decent).

Neo
  • #10
  • Oct 25, 2009 7:06pm Oct 25, 2009 7:06pm
Cool story.
  • #11
  • Oct 25, 2009 7:10pm Oct 25, 2009 7:10pm
Quoting Pharoah
The Particular company PPL (Traded as PPD on the NYSE)

Reasons:

37 year old business.
Traded openly on the NYSE since 1999.
Has had continual Growth over the past 15 years.
Listed as "Top 200 Companies in North America" by Forbes Magazine.
Listed in many others as "Top 100 Fastest Growing Business in North America".
Is NOT Going anywhere any time soon.
Still has the Founder at the helm.

Will this be the ONLY investment that is going to be good over the next 5 years? no, but it's still a good investment.
Hi Pharoah

Give us some info like what does the company do? etc, has risen steadily from xxx price xxx today. During the downturn fell by x percent as compared to other sectors.

The info you have given does not make it a good investment just a steady one, if that.

Neo
  • #12
  • Edited 7:18pm Oct 25, 2009 7:14pm | Edited 7:18pm
Just to stray from the subject a little.

If someone wants stock recommendations in India please PM me. Thought I would post them here. But they are not in my top investment category although they might give very high returns.

Anyone heard of RIL(not RIM)?

There is a very good arbitrage opportunity in commodities however it requires a walk around the law(not breaking though).

Neo
  • #13
  • Oct 25, 2009 8:02pm Oct 25, 2009 8:02pm
Quoting neo1599
Hi Pharoah

Give us some info like what does the company do? etc, has risen steadily from xxx price xxx today. During the downturn fell by x percent as compared to other sectors.

The info you have given does not make it a good investment just a steady one, if that.

Neo
The company provides Legal Insurance + Identity theft protection via Krull, each year for the past 15 years has shown continual growth. PPL is the only company in north america to offer legal insurance at the level they offer it. All I have done is offered the name/trade name of a solid company that has shown 15 years of continual growth, I'm not a stocks trader, I'm a forex trader. Someone asked about a good 5 year investment, while I said it itself if not going to be the key factor, it is still going to be a good 5 year investment, as the company is not going anywhere soon, and is only going to keep growing.
  • #14
  • Oct 25, 2009 8:15pm Oct 25, 2009 8:15pm
Quoting Pharoah
The company provides Legal Insurance + Identity theft protection via Krull, each year for the past 15 years has shown continual growth. PPL is the only company in north america to offer legal insurance at the level they offer it. All I have done is offered the name/trade name of a solid company that has shown 15 years of continual growth, I'm not a stocks trader, I'm a forex trader. Someone asked about a good 5 year investment, while I said it itself if not going to be the key factor, it is still going to be a good 5 year investment, as the company...

Hi Pharoah

Didn't mean to offend.

Thanks for the info. I will definitely check the company out.
Their business idea is good. Sounds like it might be worth checking out.

@Danoid

Second pick also sounds very interesting. Best part about a thinly traded stock is usually it doesn't correct much if it is in uptrend with a sound business.

Neo
  • #15
  • Oct 25, 2009 8:28pm Oct 25, 2009 8:28pm
Quoting neo1599
Hi Pharoah

Didn't mean to offend.

Thanks for the info. I will definitely check the company out.
Their business idea is good. Sounds like it might be worth checking out.

@Danoid

Second pick also sounds very interesting. Best part about a thinly traded stock is usually it doesn't correct much if it is in uptrend with a sound business.

Neo
I'm actually affiliated with the company on a business level. And the fact that the original owner still is at the helm speaks volumes as well.

Here's the NYSE stock listing for PPL

http://www.nyse.com/about/listed/lcd...ezd=1Y&index=5
  • #16
  • Oct 25, 2009 9:50pm Oct 25, 2009 9:50pm
I don't quite agree. Over a 5 year period, I expect to see it double to call it a good investment. this means from the current 6.8 to 3.4 to the greenback.

I don't see what a strong military has anything to do with it. Russia, Japan and S. Korea have equally strong militaries.

BYD is a motor vehicles company that has had the Buffet effect, up 6 fold in the past 6-8 months and continues to have momentum. It makes electric cars .
China, like the United States continues to enjoy cheap gas but unlike the US is investing heavily in High-Speed Rail and subways. So it's going to be more like Japan than like the USA where car-ownership is concerned.
  • #17
  • Oct 27, 2009 5:31am Oct 27, 2009 5:31am
I looked into BYD...it is wayyyyy overvalued right now. There is way to much hype surrounding that company. It also made me laugh a bit...how can a company that is expected to take only 5% of the car market in China claim to be the next Toyota??

And their previous logo was a copy of BMW's

What recreational drugs do the Chinese use, I need me some!
  • #18
  • Oct 27, 2009 5:58am Oct 27, 2009 5:58am
Everything is a copy or a close resemblance to the original. In fact, some copies have copies themselves.
Lacoste for example, has as it's logo a crocodile facing the right. Crocodile is another company making the same products (garments) with a crocodile facing left. This was some 20 years ago. Not only did they get away with it, Crocodile grew so much, that it bought Lacoste years later.
  • #19
  • Oct 31, 2009 2:04pm Oct 31, 2009 2:04pm
I read an article on the internet about BYD's electric car - it said very politely that basically the car was a real POS (but so was the Toyota Prius when it first came out)!

So, how come I haven't heard of any other good ideas (or am I the only one who trades stocks on here?)?
  • #20
  • Oct 31, 2009 10:50pm Oct 31, 2009 10:50pm
You are not going to like this. But there are no "good ideas the next 5 years".
Let me explain. Five years into the future is like a year in 2000, 2 years in 1990 and 5 years in 1980. Who would've imagined the great Mr. Buffet losing 1/3 of his portfolio in 2008?
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