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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #11,141
  • Oct 30, 2009 8:40pm Oct 30, 2009 8:40pm
Quoting imjscn
Hello Fana,
"when to stop rescue"---
1. stop when loss exceed your X% of capital or X times daily average profit.
2. stop when trend really changed.

Rescue should be done with extra caution. At early stage, with limited capital, it's better try not to relay too much on rescue. After you establish great confidence, add rescue mood in, the game become a lot more fun.

@ Fana:

Just to add my 2 pips becides the above:

1. When intending to implement rescue: watch out for the time left before (major) news releases. I ususally just take the loss and stay aside first if there is one coming up soon.

2. Be mindful of the time left for us to trade before we run other errands/go to work/go to bed. If I run out of time, I just take the loss.

3. The energy levels and stability of mindset.
  • #11,142
  • Edited 6:17am Oct 31, 2009 5:59am | Edited 6:17am
Inserted Video
...

Inserted Video



Hi to all ....

fti...have been watching the Singapore Open...please let us know where you are on the leaderboard...

joy

remember all, the dance is within us...and the rainbow is not too far...
  • #11,143
  • Oct 31, 2009 6:35am Oct 31, 2009 6:35am
Happy Halloween...I had to give away my precious lolly stash because I forgot the little devils would be visiting this evening ...
  • #11,144
  • Oct 31, 2009 12:31pm Oct 31, 2009 12:31pm
Happy Halloween to everyone. The big candy run will start here in a few hours, so I have some time to say hi to everyone. I have enjoyed the music posts this week. Been too busy trading to talk much this week, but kept checking back from time to time to see if anyone was commenting. Hope you all have a great weekend.

I was wondering if fti would mind a suggestion for this thread? I am not trying to take over or be some big shot trader, but thought it might be nice to see what other traders had done during the week. So, the suggestion is that on Saturday or Sunday, traders post their 'trade of the week" on the site with their comments and suggestions. The purpose would be to keep the trading talk going while we listen to the great music. Perhaps we could agree to alternate weekends with trades that worked and those that did not work, focusing one weekend on positive trades and the next on negative trades. Just a thought, but do not want to take the thread to a place where fti is not in agreement.

Check back later.
  • #11,145
  • Edited 4:30pm Oct 31, 2009 1:47pm | Edited 4:30pm
GEFx,

I'd be in favor of participating in an off TAF thread to post recaps of daily trades. Mamood had started a TAF discussion thread in the member's forum earlier when FTI was away, the idea was to keep the original thread intact while everyone could chat and talk. Since then this thread has become more of a social meeting place for it's followers.

If any trade setups involve anything other than the original teachings, they should be on a seperate thread, so not to confuse anyone reading the thread later, althought most of the teaching is concentrated within the first 100 pages or so.

I'm not much of a fan on call threads, too many egos.... but a recap every now and then both good and bad are great discussion and learning tools for everyone.

fwiw,

here you go http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...73#post3196373
  • #11,146
  • Nov 1, 2009 7:46am Nov 1, 2009 7:46am
Quoting auxesis
GEFx,

I'd be in favor of participating in an off TAF thread to post recaps of daily trades. Mamood had started a TAF discussion thread in the member's forum earlier when FTI was away, the idea was to keep the original thread intact while everyone could chat and talk. Since then this thread has become more of a social meeting place for it's followers.

If any trade setups involve anything other than the original teachings, they should be on a seperate thread, so not to confuse anyone reading the thread later, althought most of the teaching is...
auxesis,
I appreciate your efforts but why cant we review and reflect and discusson our trades on this thread, after all fti gave us the foundation and told us to discuss it amoung ourselves.

So why start another thread ?
  • #11,147
  • Nov 1, 2009 7:56am Nov 1, 2009 7:56am
Quoting fti
nice place. If you have time drop by and hug a "hi" from me to Welles Wilder. If he's still around. You can't miss his place , giant mansion and farm.
yes...a very nice place as per my CEO views...

I did not know that Wilder was the local famous indicator writer.
A quick google search shows his office no more than 15 min away from my own office. Scary.

And I also found this article....that is a MUST read for all system creators...

http://www.allbusiness.com/specialty.../250679-1.html

Any one want to become a director of the Omega Secret Society?
Send me a check for $9999 and I will send you the most advanced trading forex system...wait...because I really really like you, I will include my 10 laws that show how Forex really works...You will have the secrets that only the top traders have etc, etc. etc.

Happy trading to all.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #11,148
  • Nov 1, 2009 7:58am Nov 1, 2009 7:58am
Im very aggrevated with not leaving profits run I have been cutting myself short, so I have a question.
With not trying to play god to the markets and not having a fixed point to reach, how are ones doing with leaving profits run and not cutting ourselves short by taking most off the table to early?

An area of extra interest for this week is e/u 1.4754.
  • #11,149
  • Nov 1, 2009 8:12am Nov 1, 2009 8:12am
Quoting lilpip
auxesis,
I appreciate your efforts but why cant we review and reflect and discusson our trades on this thread, after all fti gave us the foundation and told us to discuss it amoung ourselves.

So why start another thread ?
Out of respect to FTI, the other thread is not intended to replace this one, rather a place to post a chart for discussion, so not to draw away from anything going on here.

Imho, there are many who are struggling with the concepts laid out, and who I believe are incorporating other elements into their trading outside what is taught here ( I for one am guilty at times). I would think that it would be a distraction to discuss the pros and cons of such here. And you can't help if others are not willing to speak and share, so I though an off thread site would be a more open place for such discussion.

regards,
  • #11,150
  • Nov 1, 2009 8:18am Nov 1, 2009 8:18am
Quoting lilpip
auxesis,
I appreciate your efforts but why cant we review and reflect and discusson our trades on this thread, after all fti gave us the foundation and told us to discuss it amoung ourselves.

So why start another thread ?
hello lilpip,

just be patient with the thread auxesis opened... it could be even beter than discussing it here. i believe in different places for different topics.

a suggestion:

i have a journal and also pete.alpha has one and writes reviews and reflection on his trades... if all who wish to share their trading open a journal... i will certainly subscribe to their journal and comment when i feel i can add something.

greets, pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #11,151
  • Edited 9:14am Nov 1, 2009 9:00am | Edited 9:14am
Quoting j-pax
hello lilpip,

just be patient with the thread auxesis opened... it could be even beter than discussing it here. i believe in different places for different topics.

a suggestion:

i have a journal and also pete.alpha has one and writes reviews and reflection on his trades... if all who wish to share their trading open a journal... i will certainly subscribe to their journal and comment when i feel i can add something.

greets, pax
I hear ya. I 2nd the motion for journals.
  • #11,152
  • Edited 9:51am Nov 1, 2009 9:17am | Edited 9:51am
Quoting auxesis
Out of respect to FTI, the other thread is not intended to replace this one, rather a place to post a chart for discussion, so not to draw away from anything going on here.

Imho, there are many who are struggling with the concepts laid out, and who I believe are incorporating other elements into their trading outside what is taught here ( I for one am guilty at times). I would think that it would be a distraction to discuss the pros and cons of such here. And you can't help if others are not willing to speak and share, so I though an off thread...
I understand, look forward to checking it out.
I know Im guilty of bastardizing his teaching while i try to apply it.
  • #11,153
  • Nov 1, 2009 10:04am Nov 1, 2009 10:04am
looking at g/u monthly terrain for nov., bias is up from 6398 area.
7066
6398
5730
  • #11,154
  • Nov 1, 2009 10:16am Nov 1, 2009 10:16am
Quoting lilpip
looking at g/u monthly terrain for nov., bias is up from 6398 area.
7066
6398
5730
Hi lilpip,
I hope you are having a good weekend. I saw your question re: staying in trades, but also noticed your post on levels in the G/$. They raised a question in my pea-sized brain: are you frustrated about not trading to these levels? That would be approximately 600 pips either way from the 6498 level. If this is not your situation, then I think more information about what is going on with your trading is needed before an answer can be presented here on this thead. Perhaps you could post a trade with explaination and the group could go from there. Just a thought, and best wishes to you.
  • #11,155
  • Edited 3:31pm Nov 1, 2009 10:28am | Edited 3:31pm
Quoting GEfx
Hi lilpip,
I hope you are having a good weekend. I saw your question re: staying in trades, but also noticed your post on levels in the G/$. They raised a question in my pea-sized brain: are you frustrated about not trading to these levels? That would be approximately 600 pips either way from the 6498 level. If this is not your situation, then I think more information about what is going on with your trading is needed before an answer can be presented here on this thead. Perhaps you could post a trade with explaination and the group could go from...
Its a wrestling, I rerview the terrain and consider areas of extra interests, as I lay plans I try not to get hung up on levels once action starts.
On the other hand I try to go by feel and what shes telling me,because of my inexperience or maybe lack of patience I exit before I should thinking shes trying to turn around and shes not.

As far as 600 pips my problem is Ive cleared most off the table by the time it reaches and no serious money is being made on the long sword be it looking at a quaterly, monthly, weekly or daily always cutting myself short.
I have to believe with experience I will recognize whats transpiring.

example, e/u fri.
bias south 4850 for week.
as I watch day info @ 4838 to see how she reacts.
Its a go but I got crossed up @ 4784 area closing trade.

Not to make excuses but for the exceptions of a couple hours a day most of the time Im tied up doing other things as I trade (which was the case fri.) still no excuse, I carry the laptop everywhere as I consider part of my schooling as I learn to keep a pulse on the market.
  • #11,156
  • Nov 1, 2009 1:58pm Nov 1, 2009 1:58pm
i have read the new market wizards this weekend. i realy liked the story of currency trader bill lipschutz and i believe that everyone who did not already read it should read the story and lessons of Randy McKay.

i don't know if i can post a pdf of the book here.... or download it if you can.
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #11,157
  • Edited 4:00pm Nov 1, 2009 3:49pm | Edited 4:00pm
Quoting lilpip
Im very aggrevated with not leaving profits run I have been cutting myself short, so I have a question.
With not trying to play god to the markets and not having a fixed point to reach, how are ones doing with leaving profits run and not cutting ourselves short by taking most off the table to early?

An area of extra interest for this week is e/u 1.4754.
Lilpip,

As I started studying FTI's teachings, one of the key things that really hit home to me (and one of the hardest at times to incorporate) is that no one knows how far a move will go. Now that is in stark contrast to a lot of teaching out there where price action is contained or measured in certain percentages or lines ect...

If you look at fib levels, how do you know what exact level, in advance, it will retrace or extend too? The same applies to any level or measuring technique. Price will do what is does, and there's no way of knowing in advance of the outcome. That being said there are some techniques that seem to measure price action at times. My old favorite is Andrews Median Lines or pitchforks, statistically they will say price will meet the median line 80% of the time. That's a deceiving statistic, but when price action fails to meet/or extends past it's targets there are rules to help you understand what the market is doing - even here we are seeing price do what it wants and we have to adjust.

So it's just a fact that we will never know how far price will go once we enter a trade, heck sometimes it's going in the wrong direction.

We will know how far once it reverses, not when or where beforehand. But price will give us hints.

So the answer is ( and much harder to accomplish due to our nature) to stay in the trade until price reverses.

That being said, and because we never know when or where, we take profits along the way and try to let some ride to that point where price tells us differently. Sometimes its just a ruse and price continues?

But what I do know in advance is that I will never catch every move, every pip - the goal is too learn and get better.

regards,
  • #11,158
  • Edited 4:41pm Nov 1, 2009 4:24pm | Edited 4:41pm
Quoting lilpip
Im very aggrevated with not leaving profits run I have been cutting myself short, so I have a question.
With not trying to play god to the markets and not having a fixed point to reach, how are ones doing with leaving profits run and not cutting ourselves short by taking most off the table to early?

An area of extra interest for this week is e/u 1.4754.
i am not shure i should comment... but i will:

Randy McKay, in the interview i mentioned, said he does not picks tops and bottoms. i think with a scout i could try catch tops and bottoms.

my suggestion is during a run keep taking profits but not closing all before there is proof the impulse wave is over.

it's not like i do this allways but it is what i am trying to do.

to me this is one of the most importand things i got from this thread, averaging OUT of a position. due to lack of time i enter more agressive than my exits, because like you, i don't like cutting myself short

kind greetings, pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #11,159
  • Nov 1, 2009 6:09pm Nov 1, 2009 6:09pm
although my bias was up from g/u 6398 looking at the weekly time frame, looking at the here and now ( daily ) Im watching how 6435-49 responds.
Ive took note of the bounce @ 6440.
  • #11,160
  • Nov 1, 2009 6:55pm Nov 1, 2009 6:55pm
Quoting lilpip
although my bias was up from g/u 6398 looking at the weekly time frame, looking at the here and now ( daily ) Im watching how 6435-49 responds.
Ive took note of the bounce @ 6440.
All 3K's seem to have an outside reversal going on the hourlies, will be interesting to see if this continues.
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