Next Crash on October 20, Tuesday?

dji sitting on support should be blue skys again

Hi

I support the bubble theory in general terms.

Before every1 starts arguing let me give my view point.

First, I am not talking about US or any specific country. I live in India, am an import/export manager for a company.

In our country all though the numbers released by the government are astounding. The stock market is racing up. Property prices have started rising etc. In short any thing that fell during the crash has gone up. The metal prices are holding up.

However, my interaction with nearly all our clients, stores, just random conversations with people from different walks of life etc has been exactly the same. They all say that there is no work. Just the same clients as they had after the crash. The general business sentiment is very cautious. Majority of people have not rushed back to the stock markets. I have a friend who runs a stock brokerage firm, he tells me it looks and feels like a bubble. No change in fundamentals etc yet we are racing back to old highs and without any correction whatsoever.

I am a technical analyst as far as trading is concerned so I try to keep all this gloom and doom talk aside when trading. Ride the trend.

I can probably throw up 10 different aspects of why I expect this in India though I am not sure about the US. Since India and China(main import partner for my company) look like bubbles ready to burst I am sure they can and will have a global impact. Although China is really a mystery.

Let me repeat I am not saying incorporate this into trading, just keep yourself informed and trade the same as before. Information is the key, so keep the info at the back of your mind.

Neo

Hmmm..... did I sleep through the crash?????????
I just hate it when I miss all the fun...........

You may be right but who knows right . Maybe it's just because of my trading style where i take advantage of people's emotions and optimism. For now i can say everyone is in euphoria.

Typically it's on a Friday, so if it does happen, it should have been on the 23rd or maybe one is on the way for the 30th.

Most stocks stay flat for a year or 2 and then shoot up 30-50% in a matter of days. I think this would apply to the index as well. In the present case, the index has been hammered and now it appears to have been overdone, maybe there is no crash in October.

Anyway those that pulled out at the end of September fearing the worst in October are 10% poorer.

Oct 20 Opening high of 10096 to Oct 27th Low of 9840.
Nice trip.. any way! Thats why there are less sarcastic replies now, it seems !

Don't know about you guys, but for me it has to get lower than at the end of September to qualify as a crash.

From the looks of it, it should lose another 9% to breakeven with end of September. For a crash, it should lose 20% from here. Is it possible? Yes!

But who wants to be sitting waiting for it.

Anyway you can't time the markets!

Oct 15 made the post = 10,062.94
Oct 20 expected crash = 10,041.48
Oct 26 said I told you so = 9,867.96

That's a 200 point drop or 2%. A crash is 10%. If we have this on Friday, well, you were onto something.

the big L. lately has been the crude oil as usd started going crazy!

Untill the DJI breaks major support at 9500 its still in an up trend
XJO is starting to show some weakness but is still in an uptrend
if you recon you can give the date of a crash please give me next weeks loto numbers you have to be on drugs

crashes don't happen without prior warnings... so far that hasn't happened. if there is a crash in the future is because we'll already be in a downtrend for sometime.

Also Hindenburg Omens precede crashes as well. So far none have appeared

If you still understand english,read the 1st post. I do not provide any dates and never provided.
As regarding lotto numbers, goto your local Astro/psychic guy.
That may help you EARN BIG !

As of now,
Oct 20's High of 10096 to Oct 30's Low of 9684
DJI is 412 pts down.
Oct 20 seems to be the first day of this whole downmove, if this continues. Nice Trip anyway.

Trial EU Short this time on his advise, is giving 240pips+
Lets see whats next !

So far so good! I certainly don't think I'll be one of those buying on this dip thinking that they are getting a bargain!

Oct 15 made the post = 10,062.94
Oct 20 expected crash = 10,041.48
Oct 26 said I told you so = 9,867.96
Oct 30 last trading day = 9,712.73

That's a 3.5% drop from Oct 20, not a crash. For the month, it's unchanged.

Maybe a crash is coming in November? No one knows that. Media will bring gurus to explain it all. For example in early April, they got Soros to talk about a bear rally when the DOW climbed 1,000 points. The old fart must feel like shit now that it has surged another 2,000 points.

Paradox?

As usual, people are just after you searching for any negative aspect/word to prove something
I would like to Clear WORD "CRASH" here!
What that friend told me was OCT 20 will start the down move and "Bursting" of this false recovery Upmove. (I WROTE this in 1st post itself i.e START from OCT 20)
Sorry for using "CRASH" word for exact date of Oct 20 in topic name but that was not meant!
If mods are reading this kindly change word "crash" to "Start of downmove".

As regarding, %age for a crash , There is no such definition %age wise for a crash. So stop being pedantic !

As regarding, being a hero(or a Nostradamus) here , if DOW JONES doesn't make new highs now and is destined for more downmoves, I am not interested and never was. I just posted some info which i got from a friend who told me above sept 08 fall too. I already explained in 1st post itself that i am also generally sceptical about such date stuff/predictions.
BUT Since last time he was right, i TRIED trading a small short in EURUSD due to its correlation with US markets and its working as of now. Simple!

As regarding, 1st post,so difficult to understand called "Paradox" , i hope its understandable now.

Regards all


P.S. I won't be posting anything here, wherever the US markets move in future . Let free your pent-up sarcasm, if still there. Hope that helps. OverNOut

A crash is 20-30% down move in a couple of days.

check www.mybullmarket.org has your friend predicted the bottom as well? I have, and my chart devised in February called a bottom at 630-655 level and a bear market rally up until 1091 during 6-9 months, where then a turn around would follow....

I agree with your friend, a crash in my opinion is in the making, and this one will be bigger than 2008's ...