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Mathematical reasons why MOST DayTraders & scalpers fail?

  • #1
  • First Post: Nov 27, 2005 7:11pm Nov 27, 2005 7:11pm
Hello all. For a long while I have been thinking about many things trading related and ways to improve my trading... I am sure that all of you have heard the phrase that "Day trading and Scalping is not profitable and most day traders lose." So I've decided to do the math and see if it shows anything... I was surprised badly...

Lets check few things out:
Scalpers/Daytraders on average trade 5 trades per day (or 1 trade using 5 lots). I've heard some scalpers may do as many as 30 trades. Lets say that we opened a first account that is 10,000$ (we don't want to risk a lot and since we do only short term trades we do not need a big deposit.)

There are about 20 days in a month X 12 months. How many trades that make? A: 1,200.
What about the spread being paid? 1,200x3pips=3,600 pips. If you open a standard account, then it means that in a year you pay in the ballpark of 3,600x10=36,000$ spread fees!!!

36,000$ of 10,000$ account just for the spread. That means that you have to make MORE than 36k which is 360% on a 10k account just to break even. Nothing to say about the lossess which you WILL have.

Considering how tough it is to REGULARLY make 360%+ ROI, I can see that maybe this is one of the many hurdles why many short term (scalpers) lose.


Any ideas, comments?
  • #2
  • Nov 27, 2005 7:38pm Nov 27, 2005 7:38pm
That's why I love Math so much

You are perfectly correct. Whatever the numbers are or the initial deposit is, scalping is not the right way in my opinion to trading. Many people get astonished when they read in the terms and conditions of their brokers that scalping is prohibited. So when you know that your broker is prohibiting scalping, you say, aha, so that's where the money comes from, that's why they don't want me to scalp, and you actually go for it, and your broker is more than happy that they made people do what they exactly want them to do with a feeling that this is the way they should actually trade this market.


Thanks,

Nader
  • #3
  • Nov 27, 2005 7:44pm Nov 27, 2005 7:44pm
Quoting narafa
That's why I love Math so much

You are perfectly correct. Whatever the numbers are or the initial deposit is, scalping is not the right way in my opinion to trading. Many people get astonished when they read in the terms and conditions of their brokers that scalping is prohibited. So when you know that your broker is prohibiting scalping, you say, aha, so that's where the money comes from, that's why they don't want me to scalp, and you actually go for it, and your broker is more than happy that they made people do what they exactly want them to do with a feeling that this is the way they should actually trade this market.


Thanks,

Nader
I like the way you think.
  • #4
  • Nov 27, 2005 8:16pm Nov 27, 2005 8:16pm
Quoting Pip Stalker
I like the way you think.
Thanks a lot...Common sense always makes sense...


Thanks,

Nader
  • #5
  • Nov 27, 2005 9:33pm Nov 27, 2005 9:33pm
Quoting Fanat
Hello all. For a long while I have been thinking about many things trading related and ways to improve my trading... I am sure that all of you have heard the phrase that "Day trading and Scalping is not profitable and most day traders lose." So I've decided to do the math and see if it shows anything... I was surprised badly...

Lets check few things out:
Scalpers/Daytraders on average trade 5 trades per day (or 1 trade using 5 lots). I've heard some scalpers may do as many as 30 trades. Lets say that we opened a first account that is 10,000$ (we don't want to risk a lot and since we do only short term trades we do not need a big deposit.)

There are about 20 days in a month X 12 months. How many trades that make? A: 1,200.
What about the spread being paid? 1,200x3pips=3,600 pips. If you open a standard account, then it means that in a year you pay in the ballpark of 3,600x10=36,000$ spread fees!!!

36,000$ of 10,000$ account just for the spread. That means that you have to make MORE than 36k which is 360% on a 10k account just to break even. Nothing to say about the lossess which you WILL have.

Considering how tough it is to REGULARLY make 360%+ ROI, I can see that maybe this is one of the many hurdles why many short term (scalpers) lose.


Any ideas, comments?
Trading the ES in my earlier life, i couldn't "see" the cost of the spread (or commissions). It cost me a mint. Ultimately i knew that something had to change. For me, i am now trading longer term and using the tendancy of the 4x to trend. In my opinion this wonderful and fantastic tendency is not easily captured trading the shorter term charts.

If i am looking for a 100 pip or greater profit, the spread is only 3 or 4 % of my gross profit. This is acceptable to me. There was a time that commisions ate up nearly 100% of my profit. Thus this discussion is important. NET profit is what companies use to measure profitability. Honestly it took me nearly a year to be honest with myself about this. It has changed how i trade.

My best to you all

Another Jim..!
  • #6
  • Nov 28, 2005 8:06pm Nov 28, 2005 8:06pm
Mathematical reasons why MOST DayTraders & scalpers fail?
Probably because there are no mathematical reasons why most of them should succeed.
The dealer already has an advantage (the spread), and if a trader crosses the spread excessively then the trader is greatly enhancing the dealer's advantage... The trader would need a statistical edge of their own which exceeds the dealer's, which becomes increasingly difficult with a higher frequencies of transactions. it's all obvious enough, but it highlights the fact that anyone who does daytrading/scalping, should have a damn good reason for giving the dealer THAT much of an advantage
  • #7
  • Nov 28, 2005 8:25pm Nov 28, 2005 8:25pm
very good information thanks.

  • #8
  • Edited 10:01pm Nov 28, 2005 9:27pm | Edited 10:01pm
Aha Fanatic, it's you again.
Never disappoint readers by come out with some sharp and cruel facts!

Yup, it is true, before you profit from scalping, you might be losing your hair...

Gav
  • #9
  • Nov 28, 2005 9:52pm Nov 28, 2005 9:52pm
More pressure, nervousness, tightness and stress too. When you do trade like that.
Resource pooling is the only solution. I love positive pips.
  • #10
  • Nov 29, 2005 5:00am Nov 29, 2005 5:00am
it is all about your edge. I am a daytrader and statistically I pay more to oanda then earn myself. So what? They developed a great tool and they offer low spreads. I am not jealous since I know andI see what I am paying for!
time is money! Z
  • #11
  • Nov 30, 2005 4:18pm Nov 30, 2005 4:18pm
Hey guys.

Here's my opinion on this, in terms of percentages.

99% of systems and indacaters are ment for trend trades.

The market only trends (intraday) 10% of the time.

90% of the time it is in some kind of sideways action that throughs the indacaters off when used intraday. Resulting in many many headfakes.

They place so many trades and double down each time trying to make up for the previous losses. Biggest mistake at the blackjack table as with forex.

Most scalpers of 10 pips or less use s/l 2-3 times there target.

Best rules for intraday trades as follows...

1. trade 1 trade a day.
2. trade opposite direction your indacaters are telling you.
3. keep s/l no more than half your profit target.
4. target should be at least half of the average true range for a day.And pull profits at 1/4 of the days average true range.
5. NEVER scalp!!!!!!!!

I used this system for a while when going for 10-20 pips. I built my account up to be able to make real trades. Started with 200$ Now my account size on a mini account allows me to risk no more than 2%.
But I am the exception not the rule.


Dave
  • #12
  • Nov 30, 2005 8:31pm Nov 30, 2005 8:31pm
Well guys I am a professional FOREX scalper. I disagree with all of you. Yes scalping can be a way to quickly lose your account IF YOU DON"T NOW HOW TO SCALP. Well I have learned how to scalp properly and am doing quite well at it and intend to continue to do so (ex. 65% acct. increase for Nov. 05). And it's not something you can learn from an ebook. It requires having to right broker, ( not one of the many bucket shops like FXCM, FOREX.com, etc.), knowing when to trade, what to trade (I only trade eurusd) and developing the instincts from watching price action on low time frames like 1 min. and 5 min charts. And I only use a few simple indicators. I use tight stops and get out quickly if I'm wrong, but I am profitable on about 76% of my trades (about 160 trades for me this month). So what if the broker is getting a 2 pip spread. I couln't care less when the end of the month my account balance is 65% higher. Also, you have to have the balls to use the leverage that is available. I'm not saying ridiculous leverage like 400:1. But I typically use 50:1 to 100:1 depending on market conditions. As far as I'm concerned, for me this is all about making the most MONEY, using the least amount of my own money. I tried position and swing trading like the rest of the HERD out there. I'm not saying you can't be successful trading in that style, but for me I prefer very short term trading. And as they say something like 80 - 90% of the traders fail in the long run. Well from what I can see, it looks like about that percentage of traders trade longer term. So what does that tell you? It looks like a lot of the longer term traders make up this losing group.

What I'm getting at, is don't knock or ridicule scalpers or very short term traders or say it's impossible, because it is possible to make a very good living at it, if you know what you are doing. I could comment further, but I'm sure there will be some comments to this posting and I will reply with my comments.

Thanks

JohnFX
  • #13
  • Nov 30, 2005 9:06pm Nov 30, 2005 9:06pm
Quoting JohnFX
Well guys I am a professional FOREX scalper. I disagree with all of you. Yes scalping can be a way to quickly lose your account IF YOU DON"T NOW HOW TO SCALP. Well I have learned how to scalp properly and am doing quite well at it and intend to continue to do so (ex. 65% acct. increase for Nov. 05). And it's not something you can learn from an ebook. It requires having to right broker, ( not one of the many bucket shops like FXCM, FOREX.com, etc.), knowing when to trade, what to trade (I only trade eurusd) and developing the instincts from watching price action on low time frames like 1 min. and 5 min charts. And I only use a few simple indicators. I use tight stops and get out quickly if I'm wrong, but I am profitable on about 76% of my trades (about 160 trades for me this month). So what if the broker is getting a 2 pip spread. I couln't care less when the end of the month my account balance is 65% higher. Also, you have to have the balls to use the leverage that is available. I'm not saying ridiculous leverage like 400:1. But I typically use 50:1 to 100:1 depending on market conditions. As far as I'm concerned, for me this is all about making the most MONEY, using the least amount of my own money. I tried position and swing trading like the rest of the HERD out there. I'm not saying you can't be successful trading in that style, but for me I prefer very short term trading. And as they say something like 80 - 90% of the traders fail in the long run. Well from what I can see, it looks like about that percentage of traders trade longer term. So what does that tell you? It looks like a lot of the longer term traders make up this losing group.

What I'm getting at, is don't knock or ridicule scalpers or very short term traders or say it's impossible, because it is possible to make a very good living at it, if you know what you are doing. I could comment further, but I'm sure there will be some comments to this posting and I will reply with my comments.

Thanks

JohnFX
well said john. even though i dn't scalp...i agree with you. to tell you the truth, when i started out forex..everyone suggested dn't scapl...dn't high leverage(i dn't now)...but in the back of my head i was always like...if no one has made money by scapling...then thats the way to go. remember "to find an oppurtunity...find a problem". the problem is..you cn't scapl and win...and there is where the oppurtunity lies. why follow....scalp and make money...and then the people will follow.

this is just the thought that i had in my mind..and to some degree it is the basis of my trading. i am not suggesting everyone to scalp...as it is really suicidal. all i am sayin is... every successfull method today (long term trading, money management) is only there because someone..somewhere thought that money can be made this way.....when people were not thinking on those lines...and today everyone follows it. be the leader....and if you think that your strategy gives you an edge....then dn't worry about what the professionals say. yea they have the experience and the edge...but you have something that they dn't.........your fresh approach to training. that the reason i like Narafa's sig "If you are dead sure that you are right, then probably the rest of the world is WRONG!! "

........how were the professionals 20 years back.....like you and me.

gabroo

p.s. although not very connected to this topic..but i remembered one story. i have heard it like this. some years back...NASA was confused as to what shuld they do with a pen ..so that it can write in space. as there is no gravity and ink will not flow down the pen's head and onto paper. this was a serious challenge and theie engineers (professionals) went to the lab again to design one...that will work in space. this problem was presented to a group of students from a school. they were asked to give any ideas they have so that the pen can work. a 10 year old kid raised his hand...and said "use a pencil".
and i grow...pip by pip.......pip by pip!!!!
  • #14
  • Nov 30, 2005 9:10pm Nov 30, 2005 9:10pm
Quoting JohnFX
Well guys I am a professional FOREX scalper. I disagree with all of you. Yes scalping can be a way to quickly lose your account IF YOU DON"T NOW HOW TO SCALP. Well I have learned how to scalp properly and am doing quite well at it and intend to continue to do so (ex. 65% acct. increase for Nov. 05). And it's not something you can learn from an ebook. It requires having to right broker, ( not one of the many bucket shops like FXCM, FOREX.com, etc.), knowing when to trade, what to trade (I only trade eurusd) and developing the instincts from watching price action on low time frames like 1 min. and 5 min charts. And I only use a few simple indicators. I use tight stops and get out quickly if I'm wrong, but I am profitable on about 76% of my trades (about 160 trades for me this month). So what if the broker is getting a 2 pip spread. I couln't care less when the end of the month my account balance is 65% higher. Also, you have to have the balls to use the leverage that is available. I'm not saying ridiculous leverage like 400:1. But I typically use 50:1 to 100:1 depending on market conditions. As far as I'm concerned, for me this is all about making the most MONEY, using the least amount of my own money. I tried position and swing trading like the rest of the HERD out there. I'm not saying you can't be successful trading in that style, but for me I prefer very short term trading. And as they say something like 80 - 90% of the traders fail in the long run. Well from what I can see, it looks like about that percentage of traders trade longer term. So what does that tell you? It looks like a lot of the longer term traders make up this losing group.

What I'm getting at, is don't knock or ridicule scalpers or very short term traders or say it's impossible, because it is possible to make a very good living at it, if you know what you are doing. I could comment further, but I'm sure there will be some comments to this posting and I will reply with my comments.

Thanks

JohnFX
Thank you John for your post.

I suspect that if everyone here knew the details of how you scalp, most of us would still fall flat on our faces. I've never tried scalping, but I suspect the majority of the success lies within the trader himself rather than the tools or techniques he uses.

That said, I wouldn't mind giving it a shot using the same set of tools and techniques you employ.

So how about sharing a brief tutorial on how to scalp the way you do. Nothing extensive mind you. Just enough of the basics to point us in the right direction.

If you'll do that, I'd be happy to give it a go on demo just for the experience, but I think I'd suck at it. But, I could be wrong.

Dial
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
  • #15
  • Nov 30, 2005 9:50pm Nov 30, 2005 9:50pm
I have done a fair share of scalping myself.... sometimes its hit or miss... On bad days you need to have something internal that tells you to stop - On good days you need to have something internal to tell you to stop. Risk & reward is a lot different versus swing trading. I try and stay away from the big anouncements & slip in & out for 3 - 5 pips during the peaceful times. I like the EURUSD on Interbank with the 2 pip spread.

PipBull
  • #16
  • Nov 30, 2005 10:19pm Nov 30, 2005 10:19pm
Quoting Pipbull
I have done a fair share of scalping myself.... sometimes its hit or miss... On bad days you need to have something internal that tells you to stop - On good days you need to have something internal to tell you to stop. Risk & reward is a lot different versus swing trading. I try and stay away from the big anouncements & slip in & out for 3 - 5 pips during the peaceful times. I like the EURUSD on Interbank with the 2 pip spread.

PipBull
Yes using InterbankFX was my first step to greatly improving my scalping. I've had FXCM and Gain (forex.com). Forget about trying to scalp with them. You have to have a broker that routes your order directly into the interbank system and of course a 2 pip or less spread. But I must say FXCM is still usefull to me for one thing. I get the IFR squack box for free. IFR can be usefull to find out where the masses are placing their stops. And a lot of traders are like "sheep", they follow the herd. Once there are enough stops at a particular price point the pros (many times your own broker or as they are know "bucket shops"), go and clean out all the stops. We'll as a scalper, that's just one of several techniques that can be quick profits. As price is aproaching a known area where all the sheep have their stops placed, just jump on board and take a quick ride. Sure feels great when all those stops get triggered and you're along for the ride. Just make sure not to get too greedy and jump off before it reverses. As for news and data releases. I used to hate them. Now I love them. Again, you have to know how to trade the news. Comes with practice I guess.

JohnFX
  • #17
  • Nov 30, 2005 11:04pm Nov 30, 2005 11:04pm
Quoting Fanat
Hello all. For a long while I have been thinking about many things trading related and ways to improve my trading... I am sure that all of you have heard the phrase that "Day trading and Scalping is not profitable and most day traders lose." So I've decided to do the math and see if it shows anything... I was surprised badly...

Lets check few things out:
Scalpers/Daytraders on average trade 5 trades per day (or 1 trade using 5 lots). I've heard some scalpers may do as many as 30 trades. Lets say that we opened a first account that is 10,000$ (we don't want to risk a lot and since we do only short term trades we do not need a big deposit.)

There are about 20 days in a month X 12 months. How many trades that make? A: 1,200.
What about the spread being paid? 1,200x3pips=3,600 pips. If you open a standard account, then it means that in a year you pay in the ballpark of 3,600x10=36,000$ spread fees!!!

36,000$ of 10,000$ account just for the spread. That means that you have to make MORE than 36k which is 360% on a 10k account just to break even. Nothing to say about the lossess which you WILL have.

Considering how tough it is to REGULARLY make 360%+ ROI, I can see that maybe this is one of the many hurdles why many short term (scalpers) lose.


Any ideas, comments?
How about this math:

5 trades for the day. 4 winners and 1 looser. (winners: 4 * 5 pips * 50 mini lots = $1000) (loosers: 1 * 10 pips * 50 mini lots =$500)

$1000 - $500 = $500 net profit for the day.

I have no problem trading 50 mini lots with a 6K account. That would be a greater than 8% return for the day. It CAN be done.

JohnFX
  • #18
  • Nov 30, 2005 11:17pm Nov 30, 2005 11:17pm
Quoting narafa
That's why I love Math so much

You are perfectly correct. Whatever the numbers are or the initial deposit is, scalping is not the right way in my opinion to trading. Many people get astonished when they read in the terms and conditions of their brokers that scalping is prohibited. So when you know that your broker is prohibiting scalping, you say, aha, so that's where the money comes from, that's why they don't want me to scalp, and you actually go for it, and your broker is more than happy that they made people do what they exactly want them to do with a feeling that this is the way they should actually trade this market.


Thanks,

Nader
Those who prohibit scalping IMO, I don't consider true brokers. They are the basic retail market maker. Simple, if one wants to scalp, stay away from those greedy thieves. Use a true broker that routes your order into the interbank system.

Thanks;

JohnFX
  • #19
  • Dec 1, 2005 1:26am Dec 1, 2005 1:26am
Very good points. I have a friend who scalps the ES. He does pretty well, I'd say...he's in the process of buying a seat on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange!

It's not easy, though. Some of us in a chat room with him understand the basic idea of how he traded, but failed miserably when we tried it.

But for the few folks who can do it well, it's probably the best way to trade. (1) You can trade in almost any market condition
(2) With a high win % rate, you rarely have losing days
(3) The high win rate + small stops = low drawdowns = very higher leverage is possible. You don't need 100 pip FX trades or 10 point runs on the ES (which are very rare these days, anyway).

I went to a site where my friend sometimes post charts, and found one of his along with a demo account statement he posted--the links are below

http://charts.dacharts.com/2005-11-23/drwilljones20.png
http://charts.dacharts.com/2005-11-26/drwilljones29.png





Quoting JohnFX
Well guys I am a professional FOREX scalper. I disagree with all of you. Yes scalping can be a way to quickly lose your account IF YOU DON"T NOW HOW TO SCALP. Well I have learned how to scalp properly and am doing quite well at it and intend to continue to do so (ex. 65% acct. increase for Nov. 05). And it's not something you can learn from an ebook. It requires having to right broker, ( not one of the many bucket shops like FXCM, FOREX.com, etc.), knowing when to trade, what to trade (I only trade eurusd) and developing the instincts from watching price action on low time frames like 1 min. and 5 min charts. And I only use a few simple indicators. I use tight stops and get out quickly if I'm wrong, but I am profitable on about 76% of my trades (about 160 trades for me this month). So what if the broker is getting a 2 pip spread. I couln't care less when the end of the month my account balance is 65% higher. Also, you have to have the balls to use the leverage that is available. I'm not saying ridiculous leverage like 400:1. But I typically use 50:1 to 100:1 depending on market conditions. As far as I'm concerned, for me this is all about making the most MONEY, using the least amount of my own money. I tried position and swing trading like the rest of the HERD out there. I'm not saying you can't be successful trading in that style, but for me I prefer very short term trading. And as they say something like 80 - 90% of the traders fail in the long run. Well from what I can see, it looks like about that percentage of traders trade longer term. So what does that tell you? It looks like a lot of the longer term traders make up this losing group.

What I'm getting at, is don't knock or ridicule scalpers or very short term traders or say it's impossible, because it is possible to make a very good living at it, if you know what you are doing. I could comment further, but I'm sure there will be some comments to this posting and I will reply with my comments.

Thanks

JohnFX
  • #20
  • Dec 1, 2005 8:10am Dec 1, 2005 8:10am
Quoting JohnFX
I have no problem trading 50 mini lots with a 6K account
Errr 50 mini lots with a 6k account??? you sure you dont mean a 60k account? otherwise it's suicide!
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