fxswing - Trading notes, analysis and market thoughts

Bear trap below 1.4758 ?

Time will tell...

For Friday's Session Watch 1.4814 and 1.4837 as support.
1.4899 the developing POC and 1.4939 Weekly LVA as target.

To the downside 1.4792 Monthly HVA and 1.4719 former monthly swing high.

Don't underestimate yesterday's signs.

A bullish engulfing pattern + reversal isn't something to take lightly.
Last thing I would be today and next days is to be short EURUSD.

2 key targets for me today:

1.4899 The monthly developing POC
1.4939 The weekly LVA

1.5031/1.5033 Weekly POC and VPOC is probably too far to be reach today, but next week ? ...

Price back below 1.4792 would invalidate the bullish tone.

USDX looking weak (yeah, I'm a genius I know ), with a possible good short signal for next week.

Notice how each time USDX is forming weekly market structure lows (3 candles MSL), the next week market negates the MSL and crater through the MSL to make a new low.

Let's see if that happens next week too


3 candles breakout to the upside would invalidate the pattern, and signal a possible major move, but we're not at that point, yet




PS: FOMC meeting on 3-4 November.

Very nice daily EURUSD chart with monthly fibs on it.

Notice how we bounced in the 38.2% -61.8% zone.
We have easy parameters there for November trading.

Take a look at how nicely on the hourly chart, the fibs worked both as support and resistance.

watching 1.4686

USDX daily from last 2 FOMC meetings.

Potential Bullish stance if we can stay above 1.4785./1.4771...

Be prepared.

Failure to stay above 1.4785/1.4771, took the market sharply lower.

Watching 1.4686

Back in the 1.4719-1.4844 range.

Opening outside value.

Loading on longs between 1.4811 and 1.4822 target 1.4928 and a new high above 1.5063.

Let's see that channel setup if we go lower...

Channel low would be near the monthly POC.

Watching 1.4897.

Will monitor the upward channel.
Upper boundary of channel at 1.4928 and R1 at 1.4926.

Market would need to close below 1.4730 to send a negative weekly signal.

Still in the FOMC range 1.4826-1.4909.
Watching 1.4968 this week for breakout or rejection...

Watching 1.5031 - the last VPOC above that could serve as resistance and target for longs.

If crossed with conviction then we'll have to check reactions at a new high above 1.5063...

Note to self:

Feels like topping formation / action.

A big warning will be sent if we don't make a new convincing high this week...
Don't want to see a new high next week as it would validate 1.4627 as a swing low, that bears could try to re-take fairly easily, in a year end move...

Nothing to be afraid of so far, but needs to keep this scenario in mind.
What would be the catalyst for a bounce back in the dollar ? End of year $ repatriation, end of year profit taking move ?

EURUSD in breakout mode above weekly and monthly HVA.

Targeting nearest VPOC 1.5031 and the latest 2009 high 1.5063.

1.5031 Target / VPOC filled...

Be on alert with new high or any reversal pattern today, low liquidity could help a move lower.

I'm still not shorting as market is in daily uptrend, but I expect the market to pullback.

Will re-evaluate tomorrow, depending on todays market action.

Be careful, as it's a potential low liquidity day.

Would be a nice opportunity for the US dollar to try to stage a reversal from here... (Not saying it will happen, just keeping the possibility in mind)