Technical Analysis Fallacy | Page 554 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

Technical Analysis Fallacy Redux 23 replies

Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies

Attachments: Technical Analysis Fallacy
Exit Attachments

Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #11,061
  • Oct 26, 2009 8:33pm Oct 26, 2009 8:33pm
Now EU is ranging between 4845 to 4876 dramatically dropped from 5030 within 4hrs.
Is it some kind of distribution?
May be wait and see

Cheers,
  • #11,062
  • Oct 26, 2009 8:48pm Oct 26, 2009 8:48pm
Quoting pete.alfa
Thanks Auxesis for your comment
Nowaday I hardly making a loss Thanks Fti for TAF strategy and ofcourse you,maheswara,GEfx lusan and many more whom contribute to this thread. I've learning trading for 3-4yrs without successful(short term) until I found this trade then my trading is improving so quick. Again thanks to Tfi & you guys to make this happen.
BTW I still have more to improve I'm making average about 5-10 pips -some day I made few pips(because of rescue) & some day I made 20+ pips. I wish I should...
Pete,

You ask me for an answer that only you can provide. One of the biggest quests in a traders journey is the blend of style and personality that results in consistent profits. It only comes by OTJE, (on the job experience)

What Fti has taught is basic trading 101, the groundwork for you to build upon; both emotionally and strategically. Now, you don't have to fear the markets but you have to respect them.

I can look at a chart (higher or lower tf) and see where I think price should go, but there's no guarantee it will do it. Or what the final path it will take to get there... all I can do is look at where it's at right now and try to understand what's going on now --- so if my focus is on price and if its making new ground in it's immediate vicinity, how can I translate that to what it could do over the next few days or weeks? It can whip you and jerk you all over the place in the mean time.....

We still have to read the higher time frame charts as the smaller charts are just a smaller piece of a bigger picture.

But if Price is going to go 300 pips from point "A" to point "B" it's not going there usually in a straight line, there's probably 1000 pips of movement up and down to get there, so to me there's more profit potential in the smaller charts...... hopefully that opens up some avenues of thought you may not have had.

How you do it has to be from you, not a copy of some one else.

Me, besides having a daily with several months showing, I like looking at the Hourlies zoomed out, my hourly chart normally has a minimum of 10 days to 2 weeks worth of data, 5 minute chart last 2-3 days on it, where I do battle.

hope it helps, regards
  • #11,063
  • Oct 26, 2009 9:39pm Oct 26, 2009 9:39pm
No toothpicks for eyelids, time for sleepy.

See you all in the late London.
  • #11,064
  • Oct 26, 2009 9:42pm Oct 26, 2009 9:42pm
Quoting auxesis
No toothpicks for eyelids, time for sleepy.

See you all in the late London.
I use coffee plus tea, sometimes add a nap in between.
  • #11,065
  • Oct 26, 2009 9:54pm Oct 26, 2009 9:54pm
Quoting auxesis
Hummm, Euro was straight down this afternoon, while the Yen was sideways and the Pound trailed behind staying above it's current low. You would think a slight pullback would be in order.

Imho, Tokyo opened and failed to push it lower, but this feels like a range down here, but any retrace north is just an opportunity to short, me thinks, so play them longs close to the vest. It appears for the moment the Dollar is alive, lol.
I here ya, Ill be watchen to see how 4914-24 reacts before my bias is back with the major trend.
At least thats what I come up with as I review the day.
  • #11,066
  • Oct 27, 2009 12:18am Oct 27, 2009 12:18am
[quote=auxesis;3178418]

I can look at a chart (higher or lower tf) and see where I think price should go, but there's no guarantee it will do it.

But if Price is going to go 300 pips from point "A" to point "B" it's not going there usually in a straight line, there's probably 1000 pips of movement up and down to get there, so to me there's more profit potential in the smaller charts...... hopefully that opens up some avenues of thought you may not have had.

hope it helps,

Thanks Auxesis, Your comment is really help me a lot and now is really clearing my mind

Best regards,
  • #11,067
  • Oct 27, 2009 12:27am Oct 27, 2009 12:27am
Quoting pete.alfa
Now EU is ranging between 4845 to 4876 dramatically dropped from 5030 within 4hrs.
Is it some kind of distribution?
May be wait and see

Cheers,
That's it the market prices can move anywhere they like now is slowly moving up from 4845 to 4891

cheers,
  • #11,068
  • Oct 27, 2009 2:21am Oct 27, 2009 2:21am
a note ,
there is a thin line distinguishing averaging losers and rescuing , turns out that line is experience...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #11,069
  • Oct 27, 2009 2:33am Oct 27, 2009 2:33am
Bought 0.1lot at1.4911

Cheers
  • #11,070
  • Oct 27, 2009 4:06am Oct 27, 2009 4:06am
Quoting maheswara
a note ,
there is a thin line distinguishing averaging losers and rescuing , turns out that line is experience...
my averaging losers mostly come when i don't have the patience to let a move against me end. it could end 100 pips away and i need alot of "capital" to rescue but i think this is the only way it can be done quick.

because of my lack of patience/ experience and also lack of time i often have to monitor my hoping and cut losers to put scout back at beter price or not.

maybe some people recognise my situation and can say how they handle their situation.

good trading to all, pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #11,071
  • Edited 4:56am Oct 27, 2009 4:35am | Edited 4:56am
Quoting pete.alfa
Bought 0.1lot at1.4911

Cheers
Hi Guys,

Lost 15pips today. spent most of the time rescuing then gave up, had to have my dinner.
Anyway most of the time when I enter the trade the price is normally against me. So next time when I want to enter the trade I'll do opposite( if my mind say go long then I enter short instead of long may be it would help). What do you think?

Hope you guys have good pips.

Cheers,
  • #11,072
  • Edited 5:13am Oct 27, 2009 4:53am | Edited 5:13am
Quoting j-pax
my averaging losers mostly come when i don't have the patience to let a move against me end. it could end 100 pips away and i need alot of "capital" to rescue but i think this is the only way it can be done quick.

because of my lack of patience/ experience and also lack of time i often have to monitor my hoping and cut losers to put scout back at beter price or not.

maybe some people recognise my situation and can say how they handle their situation.

good trading to all, pax
Hi Pax,

How are you?

I've just come across your situation recently I found out Rescue could be done at s/r level. you can see clearly where the prices stall at that level many times then you start to rescue at that level.

My rescue is:- 1st rescue I'm using 5m, 2nd rescue I start to look at 15m at s/r level, 3rd rescue for sure I look at 15m. I'm not going to 4th level bcos I still new & I dare not to lose a lot of money.
I've seen they were talking about kill the scout if only 10-20 pips at the early of the thread. I havn't tried that( I might try one day see how it goes).
And ofcos I wont rescue when the prices are only 5-15 pips away. One more thing when I'm doing rescue if the prices start to against me I'll take if only fews pips and I will rescue at that level all over again (but also depending on the situation)
do what experience or senior guys say - Practice practice & practice.

Hope this might help you.


cheers,

PS: Experience guy: Please correct me if my rescue procedures are wrong I'm still learning too.
  • #11,073
  • Oct 27, 2009 5:30am Oct 27, 2009 5:30am
scout in long euro 4886
  • #11,074
  • Oct 27, 2009 5:54am Oct 27, 2009 5:54am
London news coming out in 7 minutes, heads up all you cable traders
  • #11,075
  • Oct 27, 2009 5:59am Oct 27, 2009 5:59am
Quoting pete.alfa
Hi Pax,

do what experience or senior guys say - Practice practice & practice.
Hope this might help you.
cheers,
PS: Experience guy: Please correct me if my rescue procedures are wrong I'm still learning too.
y did u give up on the rescue ?
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #11,076
  • Edited 6:49am Oct 27, 2009 6:14am | Edited 6:49am
Quoting j-pax
....
because of my lack of patience/ experience and also lack of time i often have to monitor my hoping and cut losers to put scout back at beter price or not.

maybe some people recognise my situation and can say how they handle their situation.

good trading to all, pax
I second pax here as I have more or less the same problem - lack of time is a major issue for me as trading is not my main business (unfortunately not yet).
So normally I try to stay very nimble and make only short attacks, not much different from gorilla tactics, to place another war analogy here. However I do get caught sometimes so it is quite painful when you don't have the time to babysit the positions and therefore you need to close them on the negative side.
  • #11,077
  • Edited 6:48am Oct 27, 2009 6:35am | Edited 6:48am
Quoting maheswara
y did u give up on the rescue ?
thank you pete, i am feeling wel, and doing OK in my practice.
from what i read you are well also?

when i rescue, because i have a good opportunity and enough time, i will keep in my mind what you said: take some pips when price goes against rescue and do it again later. my problem is especialy, no time for zooming out to 15min TF.

last week i focused very much on PA and not much on levels or formations, in 5minTF. ranges i think saw alot of accumulation clues (how it would break out). TP in the impulse/distribution... and if i have time do it again.
it worked out good and i had a clear picture when iam am wrong and cut loss.
a few times a break against me looked like stops triggered and i added strong wich worked like a rescue.
(i will start to save my charts again and post in my journal.)

this is a way i rescued many times before. when i see a weird/fast run i entered when it slowed down and quickly covered when it snapped back.
this is dangerous and has worked against me (also because of wide spreads during these snapbacks) but i think with experience this is shomething that presents rescue-possibilities.

@setebos: i think you should praise youre self for discipline/closing out a losing trade and not rescue reclessly or let your babies in the hands of chance. i did this and it's no good. i hope we all make it to fultime trading.
trade well greets, pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #11,078
  • Oct 27, 2009 7:21am Oct 27, 2009 7:21am
Quoting maheswara
y did u give up on the rescue ?
Hi Maheswara,

Yes I did give up the rescue because I need to take a brake - too tired may be I'm getting old & also it was only 15pips I might get even or get worst so I decided to stop & take a brake
Working full time 12hrs/day 4days a week(used to 5days) and also study Fx 2-3 hrs a day & trading 2 days a week. sometime I am exhausted.

Ofcos if I trade full time no way I'm going to give up the rescue unless too big too handle.

hope you are get a lot of pips.

Cheers,
  • #11,079
  • Edited 8:19am Oct 27, 2009 7:45am | Edited 8:19am
my problem is especialy, no time for zooming out to 15min TF.

Hi Pax,

you can set your 5m & 15m chart TF sizes to fit both charts in your screen so you can manage to look at 5m&15m chart at the same time just for 1 or 2 clicks but ofcos the charts are going be smaller but it suits the purpose.

I have the one problem most of the time I choose the wrong side When I enter long the prices change moving south when I enter short the prices change moving north. So next time if I want to go short I'll do the opposite I'll enter long so I dont have to do the rescue.Just kidding.

btw Now I think doesn't matter the more rescue you do - the experience you are going to have and ofcoz with the micro account I can afford that

Cheers,
  • #11,080
  • Edited 8:45am Oct 27, 2009 8:34am | Edited 8:45am
Quoting pete.alfa
btw Now I think doesn't matter the more rescue you do - the experience you are going to have and ofcoz with the micro account I can afford that

Cheers,
indeed, practice practice practice .. surely this also is true for you picking sides. beter not use yourself as an inverse indicator

and about "no time to look at 15m.tf" i look at many timeframes, mostly to be warned about dangerous S&R. i trade the 5m. and 1m. lately... but i will not discuss deviant trading here... also sorry for the above post.

i meant no time for trading the 15m. chart because it takes longer to show what it will do. for example it takes longer to arrive at relevant levels. but the moves are bigger so you only need a bit of a move to rescue.... this is how i understand it.

have a good rest and trade fit later....kind greets
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
12 traders viewing now