Bemac's GBP/USD Observations

I looked for this thread but maybe not deep enough...
Current Observation...



Looks kinda toppish to me.
Mid Term Short looks profitable.
{Mid Term represents 3-4 weeks}

Would be good to have a cleaner thread for proper analysis of cable.

I'm agreeing - looks quite toppish but there is just no sign of a real deep pullback that i'm looking for

Hi Bemac, maybe this thread will be my new home?

I trade cable along with u/j for the first six hours of london, using hourly charts mostly as well as some VSA on the M15. My daily EW count matches the others I have seen on actionforex.com and similar sites, so I am fairly sure it is correct.

To that end, I am interpreting this current up-move as the beginning (wave 1) of a new impulsive up-trend (with the caveat that an impulsive down-trend could re-start if we break the wave C low). This current up-move to be followed by a retrace wave 2 down and big wave 3 up. Since people seem to have a problem with me posting EW counts, I would just like to point out I am using it simply as a directional indicator, i.e. not holding positions against the wave (just bank them at the end of trading day instead), as well as holding positions with the wave for the trend to friend. Not using EW as a method to predict price levels.

Well; what can I say? I honestly didn't expect this when I got into the Trade but it sure is a nice Start to the move...


Bemac

indeed, a great start

ive shorted cable for a week now, being in a loss, but now i start to make some sense. prelim GDP was prolly pushing prices up?

Monthly chart shows a clear downtrend, with recent price action being a retrace to monthly trendline.

Weekly chart shows a second leg down of what could be a double bottom ? But second leg isnt still down.

Daily chart showed a somewhat head and shoulders, after an ascending triangle (imagination running wild).

PA indicates 1.6750 as a strong resistance tested twice lately, and forming a double top, after previous decline, establishing a small angle downtrend.

I am assuming at this point, that due to prelim GDP release and general negative UK economic climate, a downfall to "magnet area" of 1.3500 - 1.3600 will probably resume...

Sorry for highjacking your post Bemac! Though i'd add my 2c, let me know what you think

By 2c I assume you mean 200P opinion.

Please: Feel free to post your observations. A chart or two would also help.


Let's get real & involved.
Bemac

weekly pinbar off a resistance zone, I like the chances of some downside here, and it does have some room to move down

Tuesday before any 'Significant' News for GBP OR USD.

Will pay attention looking for Indications of Buy Swing.

Until I see 'Some' {plural} I'm still short.

As an aside: I find it interesting that EUR did not lose as much to USD. This incites interest in EUR/GBP.

Fight? maybe but for now I will be satisfied with my GBP/USD Trade.

{think accross the board.} Have a look at the GBP vs the Asians too.

hth
Bemac

Hello

I did no anticipate prices to hover over there i was expecting or hoping for a sharp fall.

Positive CBI release might have influenced intraday/news buyers to go long. Prices are hovering right on SMA100 at the moment.

However what worries me is that i start seeing a downward wedge forming, which has a high upwards breakout chance than a downside breakout, and is currently at the 4th bounce. So we could see a breakout in the next 1-2 up/down moves.

I am hoping that the downtrend will resume, especially since news on how bad the UK economy is have been released.

Lets see how this unfolds....