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Trend Trading Chart Thread

  • #141
  • Oct 23, 2009 10:57am Oct 23, 2009 10:57am
hey guys on the GU 4hrs charts this bull run, 50 % fib is at 1.6200

would this be the interest area to buy? if so on what conditions?
  • #142
  • Oct 23, 2009 12:00pm Oct 23, 2009 12:00pm
Looks like there has been a little more interaction at the 50% retrace level (150.0), 150.5 starting to look good for an entry.

Reason for entering: confluence of three elements, 50% retrace, trendline and round number.
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  • #143
  • Oct 23, 2009 4:56pm Oct 23, 2009 4:56pm
Hi, yes I'm keeping an eye in this area 6200 gu see what happens
  • #144
  • Oct 24, 2009 9:23am Oct 24, 2009 9:23am
thing is it has broken the long term dt which on my charts are from high of 15/7, 5/8 and 10/9.. so undecided again..


Quoting castlerock
Hi, yes I'm keeping an eye in this area 6200 gu see what happens
  • #145
  • Oct 25, 2009 12:56pm Oct 25, 2009 12:56pm
Quoting castlerock
Hi dan, first congratulations on new baby. The usd/jpy has been bearish for some time as you can see i started to see an upward move and took a demo long @90.50 what i would like to ask is at what point do you start to change your bias after seeing either a bearish/bullish move using this method i have noted that the longer term 50%fib from the 97.77 mark would take us to the 93. mark where it could resume it's bearish bias hope you understand the question.Attachment
Castlerock, I realize you posted the question to Dan. Apparently, Dan is busy with his baby at the moment. If I may offer my observation. I'm presenting a Week 1 Chart and a Daily Chart to show you what I've been seeing for a few months. Start with the WK1 chart, which shows that UJ is in a downtrend. The apparent bull move you see is likely a retracement back to the WK1 resistance line shown in the WK1 chart.

If you go to the D1 Chart you'll see a down channel that started about March/April of this year. I've been using it to trade UJ. It has held up pretty well. Similar to you, I'm looking for it to go back up to somewhere around the 93.00 area where we should have a confluence of the WK 1 support TL (which also forms the upper channel line) and the 50% fib at 92.88. I'm planning to SHORT this here myself.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #146
  • Oct 25, 2009 6:45pm Oct 25, 2009 6:45pm
Quoting RickyRudy
Castlerock, I realize you posted the question to Dan. Apparently, Dan is busy with his baby at the moment. If I may offer my observation. I'm presenting a Week 1 Chart and a Daily Chart to show you what I've been seeing for a few months. Start with the WK1 chart, which shows that UJ is in a downtrend. The apparent bull move you see is likely a retracement back to the WK1 resistance line shown in the WK1 chart.

If you go to the D1 Chart you'll see a down channel that started about March/April of this year. I've been using it to trade UJ. It has...
Hi ricky yes I'm looking at the same thing as you it is a bit of a counter trend tread i have taken here i seen what was a bit of a bullish move and had been eying the 93 mark for a sell thought there might be a couple of hundred pips in this if it gets to the 93.00. 93/50 is where i will look for a short if it breaks 93.50 then it could go to 98.00.
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  • #147
  • Oct 25, 2009 7:07pm Oct 25, 2009 7:07pm
Quoting castlerock
Hi ricky yes I'm looking at the same thing as you it is a bit of a counter trend tread i have taken here i seen what was a bit of a bullish move and had been eying the 93 mark for a sell thought there might be a couple of hundred pips in this if it gets to the 93.00. 93/50 is where i will look for a short if it breaks 93.50 then it could go to 98.00. Attachment
Yes, I have 93.50 as a key area as well. It's noted on the chart I posted as a dashed blue line. I'm waiting because I hate counter trend trades.
  • #148
  • Oct 25, 2009 7:11pm Oct 25, 2009 7:11pm
Quoting castlerock
Hi ricky yes I'm looking at the same thing as you it is a bit of a counter trend tread i have taken here i seen what was a bit of a bullish move and had been eying the 93 mark for a sell thought there might be a couple of hundred pips in this if it gets to the 93.00. 93/50 is where i will look for a short if it breaks 93.50 then it could go to 98.00. Attachment
Hi Castlerock, I like your fib set-up on the charts, any chance you could post one similar. 93.50/98.00 are key areas, excellent stuff.
  • #149
  • Oct 26, 2009 5:20am Oct 26, 2009 5:20am
is anyone watching this?
  • #150
  • Oct 26, 2009 6:07am Oct 26, 2009 6:07am
Quoting coolshades
is anyone watching this?
Hi coolshades,

Im watching it. Its hit fibs 50 again.

Im looking at a possible entry at 1.0500 since it didnt hit 1.0600.

what do you think?

Also keeping an eye on U/J.

What do you think of G/U? It didnt reach fib 50 nor 1.6200 but it did hit 1.6250. the only concern id have is the massive pin formation on the weeklies chart...
  • #151
  • Oct 26, 2009 6:43am Oct 26, 2009 6:43am
i already have a pending sell at 1.5 on usdcad.

on U/J i am already long from 91.5 but thats using a different system, and on that system i have a fixed exit.

on G/U, i had a pending buy at 1.625 but that didnt get triggered on my platform (oanda). the next level i will be watching is 1.64 which is the 50% from high of 5/8 to low of 13/10

in addition i have closed my long on audusd from 0.922 for 50 pips. i manually closed this since i was not comfortable with the price ranging on audusd. for now i will stay out of audusd.

another pair which is strongly trending and that is on my watch list is usdnok, however i will not recommend that pair to newbies because of the high spread and leverage.




Quoting Pipalicious
Hi coolshades,

Im watching it. Its hit fibs 50 again.

Im looking at a possible entry at 1.0500 since it didnt hit 1.0600.

what do you think?

Also keeping an eye on U/J.

What do you think of G/U? It didnt reach fib 50 nor 1.6200 but it did hit 1.6250. the only concern id have is the massive pin formation on the weeklies chart...
  • #152
  • Oct 26, 2009 8:26am Oct 26, 2009 8:26am
Quoting kingdomk
Hi Castlerock, I like your fib set-up on the charts, any chance you could post one similar. 93.50/98.00 are key areas, excellent stuff.
Hi kingdomk, don't know if this is what you mean but this is what i have set up on the Eur/USDA at the moment with the 1.4700/50 area marked with interest also in the area of the 50%fib but we will see what happens if it gets there.
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  • #153
  • Oct 26, 2009 10:51am Oct 26, 2009 10:51am
Keeping my eye on the AU, price is hitting 0.9150 (round number) and an inner trendline along with the 23.6% profit taking fib level from a larger move up. I have a buy from 0.9150 alert in place.

Until I see some interaction around this area, it is still just an area of interest, finger off the trigger at the moment.
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  • #154
  • Oct 26, 2009 3:56pm Oct 26, 2009 3:56pm
castle, are you watching usdchf again?
any other pairs?
  • #155
  • Oct 26, 2009 5:36pm Oct 26, 2009 5:36pm
UCHF....signal pretty clear.
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Going to make it big by age 21.
  • #156
  • Oct 26, 2009 6:07pm Oct 26, 2009 6:07pm
USD/CHF Stopped out for+200pips.
  • #157
  • Oct 26, 2009 6:25pm Oct 26, 2009 6:25pm
hi coolshades looking at usd/chf again dstryr has a good point of entry on his chart which is in keeping of this method but that was a very bullish h4 bar/candle and a strong daily bullish close so I'm going to hold off at the moment and see if we get a longer pull back to around 1.0250.
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  • #158
  • Oct 27, 2009 4:10am Oct 27, 2009 4:10am
Hi Castlerock

USD/CHF trending down, an area of interest for me was 1.0200 where price stumbled, it is also a 50% retrace of the move from 12th October and in the vacinity of a trendline, price did move down to 1.0150 (50 pips) where a possible sell entry was available, just after hitting this target it moved back up to an area of interest but failed to close above the trendline. I'm assuming it will continue its move down to at least the outer trendline, somewhere in the region of 1.0000.

(4 hr chart posted)

I see where your reasoning for a later entry stems from, taking your fib from the 1st Oct gives a 50% retrace at around 1.0250/1.0200
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  • #159
  • Oct 27, 2009 9:02am Oct 27, 2009 9:02am
So far the 1.0200 is looking good for a sell IMO looks as if 50%fib, trend line, 1.0250 might hold will see what happens.
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  • #160
  • Oct 28, 2009 1:14pm Oct 28, 2009 1:14pm
so how many are in on this trade?

Quoting castlerock
So far the 1.0200 is looking good for a sell IMO looks as if 50%fib, trend line, 1.0250 might hold will see what happens.Attachment
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