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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #205,561
  • Oct 23, 2009 7:52am Oct 23, 2009 7:52am
Quoting Piters
yes in this game anyone can be Right or wrong.. there are only 2 possibilities Short or LONG, so 50:50.

Here is my post 2 days AGO... I also saw a lot's of calls for 156, 170, 210..I said many times so far.. I need to see 153.50 broken, and then we re-read, for now a 320p drop from 153.50 (153.30 in our case .. missed by 20p ) was at least I was expecting from this level......
Great post Piters! As you said: Auslanco style, PA between daily - weekly Gann.
"THE ALL is Mind; the Universe is Mental--held in the mind of THE ALL."
  • #205,562
  • Oct 23, 2009 7:53am Oct 23, 2009 7:53am
Quoting Piters
I was watching some S/R levels, starting from 1h to Monthly charts.. This thread AUSLANCO, gives many clues on GY behavior, with retracement points. especially when we have 5sma on our charts. same with 5min, same with 1month charts.. Do your homework, look your charts, How the PA is reacting on some S/R levels.. Go back to the first 100pages of this thread, and you are going to find a lot of clues WHY we retrace, WHEN and HOW...

Some Charts doesn't need any additional explanation.. same points, different Time frames

[Charts]
i just added a 5sma, it actually looks very useful. maybe even so useful its possible to trade purely on what price does in relation to the 5sma, and looks good on 5min and daily as you said.
  • #205,563
  • Oct 23, 2009 7:55am Oct 23, 2009 7:55am
Quoting rgitt05
You are correct on the fundamentals. However, the market is still manipulating overall on this recovery..

I am bearish overall.

Hi Rg! Nice to see you posting again
"THE ALL is Mind; the Universe is Mental--held in the mind of THE ALL."
  • #205,564
  • Oct 23, 2009 7:56am Oct 23, 2009 7:56am
Quoting ewokuk
hmm doesnt make sense to me. if we dont make anything to export but we spend lots on imports then a strong pound makes the imports (which are costing us more) a lot cheaper.

if we are exporting say 50bn and import 100bn. then a strong pound is going to have double the benefit of a weak pound.

i dont know the actual figures, perhaps we do infact export more than we import?
Using your example, when we export 50bn and import 100bn worth of goods and services.

How do we finance that 50bn shortfall? How do we continue to finance that deficit, which is increasing by 50bn per annum? Is this a sustainable model for long-term economic growth?

The equation used to calculate GDP is as follows, which should make it easier for you to understand as to why a weaker sterling is necessary to rebalance the economy to a more sustainable path: -

Private Sector Demand + Investment + Govt Spending + (Exports - Imports)
  • #205,565
  • Oct 23, 2009 7:58am Oct 23, 2009 7:58am
Quoting Piters
yes in this game anyone can be Right or wrong.. there are only 2 possibilities Short or LONG, so 50:50.

Here is my post 2 days AGO... I also saw a lot's of calls for 156, 170, 210..I said many times so far.. I need to see 153.50 broken, and then we re-read, for now a 320p drop from 153.50 (153.30 in our case .. missed by 20p ) was at least I was expecting from this level......

yeah bro Q told me about the beginning of the thread, even without indicator i can filter that 153 resistance out and this was posted many hrs before london open today...i kill all the indi on my chart let me see how this naked chart will go...i saw ur post abt the 153 part which i also expect that to be our major key level...
Nice post ...
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #205,566
  • Oct 23, 2009 8:10am Oct 23, 2009 8:10am
As I said last week, bears on vacation..Now the beast is back for some hammer time




Quoting JhonMonsalve
Hi Rg! Nice to see you posting again
[
  • #205,567
  • Oct 23, 2009 8:11am Oct 23, 2009 8:11am
Quoting gammase1
Using your example, when we export 50bn and import 100bn worth of goods and services.

How do we finance that 50bn shortfall? How do we continue to finance that deficit, which is increasing by 50bn per annum? Is this a sustainable model for long-term economic growth
we cant finance that shortfall. we need to accept that fact we are a tiny isolated island with next to no raw materials and no big exporting industry because of all that. we once owned half the world, times were different then.

plus you are talking about long term, im talking about digging us out of the huge hole we are in RIGHT NOW, not in 20 years time.

in that example, if we have a weak pound, the imports are costing effectively 150bn instead of the 100 it would cost with a strong pound. at the same time even IF we lost half our exports due to that strong pound (unlikely since we dont export much anyway), we would then still only be losing 25bn exports vs gaining 50m advantage on the imports. so having a weak pound makes things worse in the short term which is no good. fix the short term THEN sort out the long term.

long term having exports would be nice to help deficits, but fact remains its a tiny isolated island and the rest of the world has long since moved on from when we ruled half of it. look at broadband, we are way behind countries like slovenia, slovakia, romania!
  • #205,568
  • Oct 23, 2009 8:18am Oct 23, 2009 8:18am
Quoting ewokuk
we cant finance that shortfall. we need to accept that fact we are a tiny isolated island with next to no raw materials and no big exporting industry because of all that. we once owned half the world, times were different then.

plus you are talking about long term, im talking about digging us out of the huge hole we are in RIGHT NOW, not in 20 years time.

in that example, if we have a weak pound, the imports are costing effectively 150bn instead of the 100 it would cost with a strong pound. at the same time even IF we lost half our exports due...
Sorry, I am done here.

If you're interested in learning something about economics and macro issues, try reading some of the decent publications out there. Personally, I think the FT and The Economist contain some strong analysis from across the political spectrum.

In the meantime, stick solely with the technical side of your trading. There are some skilled traders in here that you can, in time, learn much from.

Good luck on your journey, friend.

p.s. The attached piece, which is very brief, may help explain in clearer terms what I was trying to articulate.

http://www.cityam.com/news-and-analysis/bvuazew3pu.html
  • #205,569
  • Oct 23, 2009 8:19am Oct 23, 2009 8:19am
Quoting rgitt05
As I said last week, bears on vacation..Now the beast is back for some hammer time

Something like this:

Attached Image


Vacation is over
"THE ALL is Mind; the Universe is Mental--held in the mind of THE ALL."
  • #205,570
  • Oct 23, 2009 8:28am Oct 23, 2009 8:28am
Quoting JhonMonsalve
Something like this:

Attachment

Vacation is over

is that a male or female bear? i need 1 female bear to spend my weekend with
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #205,571
  • Oct 23, 2009 8:28am Oct 23, 2009 8:28am
Quoting JhonMonsalve
Something like this:

Attachment

Vacation is over

150 being being defended

this 300 pip drop could be just like the 20 point drop we saw in ES ... one giant shake out. ....

150 had to be retested ........ that is the nature of things..

keep an open mind

at least we have volatility today been long and short , poc and yesterdays low 150.50 below this we test 150 again

on ew 30 min wave 4 complete at 150.60 to 151 ..weave 5 could go sub 150 to 148.70
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #205,572
  • Oct 23, 2009 8:32am Oct 23, 2009 8:32am


Quoting JhonMonsalve
Something like this:

Attachment

Vacation is over
[
  • #205,573
  • Oct 23, 2009 8:40am Oct 23, 2009 8:40am
Quoting malcolmb14
150 being being defended

this 300 pip drop could be just like the 20 point drop we saw in ES ... one giant shake out. ....

150 had to be retested ........ that is the nature of things..

keep an open mind

at least we have volatility today been long and short , poc and yesterdays low 150.50 below this we test 150 again

on ew 30 min wave 4 complete at 150.60 to 151 ..weave 5 could go sub 150 to 148.70
Nice Malc!

Today is short day, I've been trading with FL, first target is 148 [after break 150], next 145, keep it simple like PB says

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: geppy.gif Size: 33 KB
"THE ALL is Mind; the Universe is Mental--held in the mind of THE ALL."
  • #205,574
  • Oct 23, 2009 8:41am Oct 23, 2009 8:41am
Quoting donfriday
is that a male or female bear? i need 1 female bear to spend my weekend with
lol Don! why a bear female? halloween outfit? haha
"THE ALL is Mind; the Universe is Mental--held in the mind of THE ALL."
  • #205,575
  • Oct 23, 2009 8:52am Oct 23, 2009 8:52am
Quoting JhonMonsalve
Nice Malc!

Today is short day, I've been trading with FL, first target is 148 [after break 150], next 145, keep it simple like PB says

Attachment
I am doing more naked trading at my end lately...this is more Keep it simple..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 10-23-2009 2-49-21 PM.png Size: 15 KB
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #205,576
  • Oct 23, 2009 8:55am Oct 23, 2009 8:55am
Quoting donfriday
I an doing more naked trading at my end lately...this is more Keep it simple..
I'm doing more naked trading too

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 01.jpg Size: 41 KB


This is my last funny post for today
"THE ALL is Mind; the Universe is Mental--held in the mind of THE ALL."
  • #205,577
  • Oct 23, 2009 9:02am Oct 23, 2009 9:02am
Looks like Friday profit taking to me. Its nice to pick up some cheap gbp on this drop.
  • #205,578
  • Oct 23, 2009 9:03am Oct 23, 2009 9:03am
Quoting JhonMonsalve
I'm doing more naked trading too

Attachment

This is my last funny post for today
???? lol 1501.0 long again ...

es had tons of buyers on down move .. dead giveway on long

I think I am done for morning , not a 300 pip down move but enough volatility to make my bag of rice for the day
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #205,579
  • Oct 23, 2009 9:05am Oct 23, 2009 9:05am
hi piter,
no communication for me today
except ff, but very limited.
what r your thoughts?
  • #205,580
  • Oct 23, 2009 9:07am Oct 23, 2009 9:07am
i took a short, at 150.30, looked like craploads of sellers on the up move and when the spike was at its peak the volume was low so wasnt convinced there was great deal of buying in the spike. hoping for break 150 now. looks like it found a few buy orders on 150 though
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