From 10k to 1 million...

Review

My target of 1.50 has been reached. After some wild up and down it finally made it. I did offload all of my positions with some nice gains and entered a small short at 1.5037 yesterday which I already closed again, maybe too early...


Analysis

Not only the 1.50 has been broken again but it moved quite a bit higher. There might be some consolidation now but I don't think that we see a significant change in direction. Next target would be 1.53 where I think it will take a deeper dive. For now I continue dip buying but more carefully.


Plan

I plan to reestablish some shorts above 1.50+ but will add longs below that level. Added already longs in the Aussie, Loonie and NOK plus Gold again.


Open trades

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/ib/o...ons_221009.png


Prices

AUD/USD 0.9190
EUR/USD 1.4950
GBP/USD 1.6500
USD/CAD 1.0520
USD/CHF 1.0110
USD/JPY 91.30
USD/NOK 5.5980
Gold 1055
Silver 17.50
Oil 77.80
Dax 5720
Dow Jones 9910


Account Summary

Starting date: 08-Jan-09
Starting Balance: EUR 10,000

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/ib/account_221009.png

Congrates Xaron again to touch your 25k level.........Your money is growing nicely..........

Good wishes for you to touch 30k as soon as possible.............

xaron, dont you use stops? esp on usdnok, gold, silver etc?

Usually I don't use stops, that's right.

Keep up the good work.

Stick to your plan. "if it ain't broke don't fix it"

I wish you luck in hitting the 30k target

Cheers

Kiwi

Hi Xaron,
back to the roots, in post#456 your account was 23000
with gearing 1:1 one position is 23000
you ordered 10 positions times 23000:

BUY 69,000 units EUR/USD @1.48931, target: 1.5000
BUY 69,000 units EUR/USD @1.49117, target: 1.5000
BUY 46,000 units EUR/USD @1.49300, target: 1.5000
BUY 23,000 units EUR/USD @1.49357, target: 1.5100
BUY 23,000 units EUR/USD @1.49629, target: 1.5000

Dirk said not more than 4 Positions or gearing 1:3
in addition you opened other currency
Is this Risk not to high ?
Thanks for your help

deal2win

You're right if you trade pure BWILC. I tweaked if for my needs and call it XWILC (Xaron watching in lion country)

Of course the gearing was quite high and normally it doesn't make any sense to build up so much positions within one quadrant (and Q4!). I would have load off almost all of them below 1.4850 again where I saw some support. The 1.50 worked like a magnet and I was rather sure it would be reached.

So I wouldn't had let those positions run into the negative. I've set quite often a break even stop and got stopped quite often at those BE levels as well. I'll upload my history this weekend again, there you will see those trades.

So "XWILC" is more aggressiv than the BWILC concept. I just don't let losing positions run that much (at least not higher geared). So my hit rate is well below Dirk's one, I'm sure, but the return should be better.

Thanks that I am right, first of all I look for my failure. So, your approach is more daytrading as the convenient BWILC swingtrading were the PT takes some days. Breakeven is a different story and your style makes now sense for me.
Thanks a lot again
deal2win

No briefing today as there isn't so much to add. Just ranging all the day. The oil price is a bit scary again. I think next week might start a deeper dip, I'll use that to get in at better prices to reach the next target of 1.60 in the Euro...


Open trades

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/ib/o...ons_231009.png


Account Summary

Starting date: 08-Jan-09
Starting Balance: EUR 10,000

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/ib/account_231009.png

Hi Xaron,

I have downloaded from your Myfxbook statement some of your stats and I drew on my MT4 platform your trades to understand your method.

Here is how I would understand your method in my english words:

You have a bias on a pair (let's say your bias is UP).
You find the main support and main resistance for the pair of the last few weeks (maybe 1 or 2 months, it does not matter, what matters is the significance). This is you comfort zone.
You break down this comfort zone in 4 quadrants, mainly to know which leverage apply to your positions (low gear in Quadrant 4, higher gear in Quadrant 1).

Then, once you find some minor support zones (I say minor, in relation to the top and bottom of the comfort zone), you buy, taking profit to the next minor resistance.
If you buy close to the main support (bottom of Quadrant 1), then you can take profit close to the main resistance (top of Quadrant 4), this is what you call the big runners.

You don't setup hard stop loss, you just average down the position, and you manage your total floating drawdown by closing some losers and so on (this is, I think, where your risk aversion is managed and where your self-confidence and discipline come in play).
If the price goes below the comfort zone, then you start considering that your bias is wrong, and maybe it will be time to close more and more your positions (eventually close all positions). This is were you take your bigger loss which, let's hope, is less that all your small profits.

I am not sure that this is exactly "your" method, but this is the way I am going to do.

Hi Xaron,

I have a question about how you are dealing with the quadrant, last time I think you said that your upper quadrant was at 1.5000, with the recent new highs for E/U, are you still keeping it at 1.5000? When do you think would be the time to re-adjust the quadrants, and would it be adjusting half way to the top?

Thanks again,
Joan.

Yes, your assumptions are correct.

Regarding the grid, I don't see it that critical with the borderlines. But technically we should move the grid up now. Always a half grid so we would move it to 1.46-1.54 now. I think that's a good grid to work with as I don't see the Euro dropping below 1.45 again.

I just decided to close out everything. I'm flat now. Just don't want to be positioned into the weekend after so many good days.

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/ib/account_231009_2.png

Xaron:
very great job. I started tracking your performence from myfxbook a few days ago, you made very excellent demostartion for us.
thanks

Thanks iForex! To be honest I'm a bit surprised myself. Haven't expected such a run. But the weak Dollar helped a bit...

Hi Xaron .......Glad to see that all is going well......25000 GREAT!!!!
Take a look at the trend line drawn long term ( 12 months or so on EUR/USD daily chart).....looks like it is going to continue going up in light of the weak dollar and may shrug off the 1.50 psyc level......Give it a look and let us in on your read!!!!!..............Howkra

Here comes the transactions list from the last two weeks:

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/ib/account_251009.png

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/ib/t...s_241009_1.png

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/ib/t...s_241009_2.png

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/ib/t...s_241009_3.png

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/ib/t...s_241009_4.png

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/ib/t...s_241009_5.png

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/ib/t...s_241009_6.png

Wow Xaron fantastic job! Thanks for sharing your thoughts and progress reports.

Great job