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fxswing - Trading notes, analysis and market thoughts

  • #121
  • Oct 22, 2009 2:45am Oct 22, 2009 2:45am
Watching for consolidation.
This week mid point @1.4938
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD MP 10-22-2009 9-28-12 AM.jpg Size: 193 KB
Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.
  • #122
  • Oct 22, 2009 2:55am Oct 22, 2009 2:55am
USDX.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDX 10-22-2009 9-46-41 AM.png Size: 78 KB
Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.
  • #123
  • Oct 23, 2009 1:17am Oct 23, 2009 1:17am
Watch 1.4944 / 1.4960 / 1.4996 PP @ 1.5009

Will we close the week above or below 1.5000 ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD MP 10-23-2009 8-08-43 AM.jpg Size: 185 KB
Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.
  • #124
  • Oct 23, 2009 2:05am Oct 23, 2009 2:05am
Don't forget Microsoft reporting before the open...
Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.
  • #125
  • Oct 23, 2009 2:21am Oct 23, 2009 2:21am
Trying to breakout, let's see if we can challenge 1.5044/1.5046 at least...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD MP 10-23-2009 9-13-50 AM.jpg Size: 159 KB
Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.
  • #126
  • Oct 26, 2009 6:09am Oct 26, 2009 6:09am
Market trying to sustain the 1.5000 level.

Watching weekly VA boundaries, and 3days break for direction...

To the upside we have:

-1.5040 HVA
-1.5041 Weekly HVA
-1.5063 Latest High
BREAKOUT
-1.5162 The 76.4% retracement from 2008 range
-1.5285 Opening the 1.6037 all time high.
-1.6037 EURUSD bulls "Mission accomplished" point

To the downside we have:

-1.5006 LVA
-1.5000 Psychological level
-1.4939 weekly LVA
-1.4931 Nearest VPOC
BREAKDOWN
-1.4844 Former High
-1.4792 Monthly HVA
-1.4777 First VPOC inside Monthly VA
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD MP 10-26-2009 11-34-32 AM.jpg Size: 149 KB
Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.
  • #127
  • Oct 26, 2009 6:23am Oct 26, 2009 6:23am
USDX, Ready for a small bounce ?

We got the trendline break + the kiss back test.

Watch 75.900+ and HL AND HH potential formations...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDX 10-26-2009 12-15-46 PM.png Size: 75 KB
Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.
  • #128
  • Edited 11:48am Oct 26, 2009 11:16am | Edited 11:48am
Got that USDX bounce finally

Time to buy the EURUSD weekly parameters values are in this morning post.

Watch 1.4939 carefully...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD MP 10-26-2009 5-18-54 PM.jpg Size: 177 KB
Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.
  • #129
  • Oct 26, 2009 12:30pm Oct 26, 2009 12:30pm
Nice bounce in usdx, but it's not strenght so far, just less weakness

Let's see if it can challenge the 200sma 4H

Watching EURUSD former monthly high 1.4844
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDX 10-26-2009 6-25-11 PM.png Size: 63 KB
Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.
  • #130
  • Oct 26, 2009 12:41pm Oct 26, 2009 12:41pm
Weekly view.

If 1.4844 fail then we'll have 1.4792 the Monthly VAH to support the uptrend...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD MP 10-26-2009 6-34-51 PM.jpg Size: 164 KB
Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.
  • #131
  • Oct 27, 2009 2:47am Oct 27, 2009 2:47am
Watching consolidation in the 1.4844 - 1.4939 zone for direction.

1.4792 The monthly HVA could act as a last resort support.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD MP 10-27-2009 8-24-54 AM.jpg Size: 179 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDX 10-27-2009 8-38-39 AM.png Size: 64 KB
Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.
  • #132
  • Oct 27, 2009 3:34am Oct 27, 2009 3:34am
Longer time frame view, trying to asses yesterday's move impact.

Will calculate the developing monthly VA to use for this month last days...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD WEEKLY 10-27-2009 9-29-03 AM.png Size: 68 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD MONTHLY 10-27-2009 9-25-46 AM.png Size: 74 KB
Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.
  • #133
  • Oct 27, 2009 4:29am Oct 27, 2009 4:29am
Current developing monthly parameters for October:

HVA 1.5059
POC 1.4899
LVA 1.4731
Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.
  • #134
  • Oct 27, 2009 9:11am Oct 27, 2009 9:11am
Buying opportunity knocking... toc,toc,toc
Here it is the 1.4792 monthly HVA test.
Loading on longs, stops will be below 1.4730.

If it's a good entry point we should bounce 50-100 pips pretty fast...
Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.
  • #135
  • Oct 27, 2009 9:22am Oct 27, 2009 9:22am
1.4772
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD MONTHLY 10-27-2009 3-18-33 PM.jpg Size: 137 KB
Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.
  • #136
  • Oct 28, 2009 3:53am Oct 28, 2009 3:53am
Market consolidating at the lows.
Considering this pullback as an end of month opportunity to re-build longs between 1.4792 and 1.4730.

It looks ok to expect a bounce to at least 1.4899 the developing POC value, before the month end (Friday).
More aggressive targeting would be the developing HVA at 1.5045 or a new high.

A market trading below 1.4730 and staying below it, would signal that something is not correct with the uptrend and that we could potentially retrace to the September LVA at 1.4520.

So far today is the same scenario as yesterday, Asian pumping up to pivot and EU and US dumping... let's see if it happen again that way today, or if we can double bottom and cross the PP again at 1.4839...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD MP 10-28-2009 9-21-33 AM.jpg Size: 142 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD VA DEV 10-28-2009 9-30-44 AM.jpg Size: 142 KB
Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.
  • #137
  • Oct 28, 2009 3:58am Oct 28, 2009 3:58am
USDX at resistance
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDX 10-28-2009 9-56-02 AM.png Size: 50 KB
Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.
  • #138
  • Edited 11:58am Oct 28, 2009 11:26am | Edited 11:58am
Touching 1.4733 the developing LVA, let's see if we bounce now, or if we'll find more sellers ?

We traveled the full value for October in 3 sessions, let's see if we'll close the month around the POC 1.4899 ?
Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.
  • #139
  • Oct 29, 2009 8:39am Oct 29, 2009 8:39am
EURUSD dipped lower than I expected (happens all the time ), and it stopped the slide just at the nearest VPOC below the monthly POC.

Let's see if we can consolidate above and if this move sticks.

A good sign would be a close above the 1.4792 monthly HVA.

Still shooting for a possible 1.4899 ( monthly developing POC) by tomorrow's close...

Uptrend looks still ok, even if the slide was really fast. Trading below 1.4719 again would have me very nervous...


Go market do your stuff we're watching you
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD MP 10-29-2009 2-08-00 PM.jpg Size: 161 KB
Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.
  • #140
  • Oct 29, 2009 8:45am Oct 29, 2009 8:45am
Can USDX go back inside its downward channel ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDX 10-29-2009 2-42-50 PM.png Size: 70 KB
Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.
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