High Probability

increasing lot size, not looking for more pips.
4 lots, closed one at a time +1,+2,+4,+4 = +11 pips
again could have waited to close, tgt, 200 ema was reached...
As I practice more and more my confidence will increase that these tgts are very reliable.....

yes there is a 2nd ashi to change color
but... where is the target, where is the momentum for a burst,
when pa has a run and reaches a tgt it will very often consolidate there for a while, no momentum, just bouncing up and down in little spurts...
very hard to catch...
also Fisher is not even coming close to confirming,
would wait a while until it becomes clear, the train is going to actually leave the station......

there does appear to be a significant move developing,
but i would need to wait for a 2nd ashi, so that would mean entering on a pullback... in this case...

didn't enter short because I was looking for a little consolidation time at the 200ema and pivot on the 1m
but if I had checked the 5m I would have seen there was strong support further down on the 5m at the 200ema there...
and even further down on the 15 min. which is where this is going for sure

opened 4 lots to try to capture 5 pips = +20pips
as seen on 15 m chart tgt 200 ema

I would expect a retrace to the pivot on the 1 ema but no higher....

to trade on the 1m I would need a 2nd ashi to change color.
But I was looking at 15 min, and entered short, multiple lots, but there was no 2nd ashi on any time frame, 1m, 5, 15, 30 min..
2nd ashi means momentum and a burst...
at least a little burst. enough to take some pips, without that signal there';s no telling how much of a retrace there might be even if the general direction is correctly analyzed. Somehow I consistently forget this. The inmportanc eof this in terms how much risk I can tolerate.
I need that burst to minimize my risk. even if I do have the general direction correctly analyzed. The risk factor makes thiming the entry very important. Otherwise I cannot take the trade. I don't have enough equity to risk.
This is the lesson on the table now. I have to get this one down before I can go on to anything else. Risk is the make or break factor....
I have to connect in my brain, 2nd ashi as risk protector.... this is a must....
This is a trade i simply could never take.....
even if it turns out to be good.....

the trade was good.
more and more confidence in the 200 ema, pivots and s/r...
but the trade involved way more risk than I have equity to support...
again, the importance of the ashi signals on the 1m for entry... to minimize the risk....
so for all my nonsense this morning, only -6 pips...

forgot to change the order screen from 4 lots back to 1 lot.
oooooo...
saw the 2nd ashi and the pivot and 200 ema straight ahead and pulled the trigger...
oooooo. 4 lots...

sometimes I like to see what macd may be saying about divergence or confirmation...
there is divergence here.
4 lots, yikes..

it was a hit,,,

forgot to change the order screen again,
but it was goooood. 3 pips x 4 lots = 12 pips

basically I just plain old passed out,,
right before some nice moves in EURUSD
oh well awake now...

played the fade..
multiple lots
up +80 pips for day

to help identify entries, rsi 20 and macd are added.
the main indi is the 2nd ashi smooth to change color,
but very often these signals are not very powerful moves,
a cross of 50 by rsi and a cross of 0 by macd would confirm a significant move.
fisher is pretty...the trend at a glance...
without the help of rsi and macd I entered the trade much too early
the indis could have saved much time and nail biting....

Nice Trading today Jiva! Way to bag them pips! We will get them tomorrow.

Lohad

slow at work, but cannot access trading.
this computer is very limited in what it can do,
and my lap top cannot log on to the internet,
the wi fi is down..
yech!!
it's like being stuck on the side of the road with a flat tire in the middle of nowhere.
Only good thing about this job is when it is quiet I can practice and research trading. It certainly isn't good because of what it pays....
It's not like I can just complain to the boss that I can't get onto the internet and practice trading. Could he please fix it.
I'm like a mouse trying to eat my way of out of a basket.
I work here so I can get into a position where I don't have to work here...
but now I'm stuck. Stuck in the basket.
Until the repairmen come out tomorrow and hopefully repair the wi fi.
will have to wait until US open.
I can use the simulator. That will have to do for now.
After a taste of +80 pips yesterday, how can I just sit by?

Hello Jiva,

something I noticed, I may be wrong, but when you open the 4 lot trades, and you count your pips, say 11 pips or what have you, on 4 lots, that would give you 440 dollars, but in actuality since you closed partial lots some at 2 pips some at 5 pips etc, your actual profit would have been much less.. But your loss if you don't scale out would have been way more. So I hope if position is going against you, you scale out your losses the same way you scale out your winnings else your hit rate has to be very high to see a smooth equity curve. Just something I noticed..

Good trading to you..

Ron

sometimes when something is right in front me I can't see it..
ya ya macd,
but what I am finally seeing, which every trader who has ever made any money doing this has already known and gone on to who knows what other higher level is that macd works. duh...
enter on cross of 0 exit when it peaks and starts to cross in the opposite direction.
coincides very nicely with the 2 ashi set up...
got in late and got out early (trying to trade while at work with an internet connection that keeps cutting in and out adds an extra level of challenge)

thank you for pointing this out. I am aware. It is new concept to me more than one lot, so I will be experimenting on a demo scaling and managing risk.