fxswing - Trading notes, analysis and market thoughts

GREAT THREAD

I like you market analysis. went short on your last call, RR ratio looks great too
Can you please direct me to reading materials that i need to understand more about your trading technique.

Setting up the charts etc...

Thnaks in advance for you time and reply

Regards
Khaled

Khaled, be very careful with the short, it's a high risk counter trend trade and if the market start to trend again above the monthly HVA 1.4792, this could spark a fast move. Be prepared...

Concerning market profile, you can google the term or look at this site to get you started.

I would highly recommend the book Mind over market


I want to add for every readers of this thread, that my trades / analysis are not recommendations to open any trades. You're doing it all at your own risk, and should seek the advice of a professional financial advisor if you're not sure of the risks you are taking with your money.

No clues from USDX... staying weak, as the strong dollar policy continues

Trading or trending ?

Hitting the monthly HVA 1.4792...

Let's see if bulls can push higher ?

Market at resistance, can we push higher...

If we make a new high here, don't forget that a new swing low at 1.4481 would be in place, for a potential reversal.

Notice how R1 is at the top 1.4844 and S1 at the nearest VPOC.

Before the open we have J&J earnings, after the close we have Intel earnings, 2 important Dow components.

Was stopped for -46 on the trade,

As planned this trade failed.
I know too well how 90% of counter trend trades ends...
That's why I used a backup account, because my rules don't allow for this kind of foolish trades in my main account

Nice to see that my rules really protects me, that's a good reminder and worth every cents of the loss

Lesson: Trade with the trend only, and don't try to outsmart the market.
Once the trend has turned (sma 200) then enter on pullbacks in the new direction. It's really that simple, no need to fight the market, because it's bound to fail miserably

Nice monthly breakout - Psychological 1.5000 approaching ...

USDX, still bleeding. Watch for reaction at the channel bottom.
Perhaps after the FOMC meeting minutes are released ...

Before the open JP Morgan Chase earnings could rock the boat too.

Eurusd continues to trend up, after the monthly breakout...

Watch usdx for a possible bounce off the channel low.
This channel low could sync with a possible 1.5000 test ?

1.5000 test is just above above at striking distance...

We could go lower and re-test the monthly breakout in the 1.4770-1.4800 zone, where support should be found on the first tentative.

Notice how re-testing the breakout monthly zone would not imply a 3 days range breakdown, S2 at 1.4797.

Watch weekly developing parameters to be tested, it's often a good Friday's trades.

Can we close the week above 1.4719 again ?


Happy trading, happy Friday

Double top, or gathering some more strength to continue the northbound move ?

Notice how the target would be in the 1.4719 area, but it would then be a 3 days breakdown...

Searching for a short swing trade entry in OIL around 77.80

Target around 70 breakout...

Watch LVA 1.4912...

Swing trade - Short OIL WTI filled

Entry: 77.80
Stop: 78.20
Target1: 77.00 Trade protection target - Stop 78.20 will be at B/E at worst once target hit
Target2: 70.00 Real target to evaluate depending on the trade development

Time duration expected 3-10 days

EURUSD losing it, long be careful if we stay below 1.4912, this could be the start of a pull back.

But if we get back above 1.4912 and stay above, this will negate the potential weakness.

USDX trying to go for a reversal... looks very possible so far.

The 4H candle opening at 8AM US EST will tell us the story, keep your mind open

Watch the new 3 days low made after the Asian open.
We need a new high to negate that low, and the potential double top 1.4968 on 4H chart.

Watch for potential range action today.

EURUSD staying just above the weekly HVA 1.4960...

USDX still weak, no signs of a bounce... we could get a reaction from the channel low, but no reversal in sight.

Waiting...