From 10k to 1 million...

Thanks billflet!

You're right with those points. It's just a game of probabilities. There are a lot of other ways to skin this cat but for me it never made sense to look at the risk/reward ratio for instance nor any funny indicators. I like to keep it as simple as possible, so there is no need for that sophisticated stuff. The market can either go up or down, it's easy like that.

Thanks for sharing your account, You are a very good trader, I will keep watching and learning from you. please share more in this forum!

Thanks. I'll do my best. Maybe I just continue with some kind of my daily briefings and share my thoughts and trades.

Right now I've closed everything and now I'm short EUR/USD with a 1:1 trade at 1.4940.

Doubling an account within 9 month is actually an elite achievement.
At least its a good enough selling point if you plan to be trade for other people. To be a money manager.

10K to 20K may not seems much. But if you manage 100,000 pound.. doubled it to 200k pound.. and a 30:70 profit sharing with your client ... that is already 30,000 pound for you .. the darn whole year salary for many people. ...

Keep it up

Great job Xaron, i hope 2010 will be the same...

Please do so. Also some comments of your view of current grids would be highly appreciated.

Alright will do that. BTW: I moved to a new server but have still problems with my FTP there, so I can't update my stats here right now. Will do that asap.

Go ahead Xaron...............Nice performance.............

Xaron, after reading and analyzing some macrobook I found why last time EU fell about 3000 pips at the time of JULY 2008.........It is all about interest rate..........Just check it ......The gap between the ECB rate and USD Fed Rate was decreasing and EU fell that way and now the interest rate of EUR and is higher than USD and the rate gap is constant so, EUR is becoming more and more powerful..............

FX is all about INTEREST rate and GDP and the others are related to GDP............Working with those.............

Check what I said and if you don't understand then I shall provide some thing in your mail to show you some magic...................lol

Regards

Alright, so let's continue with some thoughts of myself. I'll do my best to maintain those briefings on a regular base.

Review

Since my last briefings a long time has passed by but nothing has changed in the big picture. Continued Dollar weakness due to the awful fundamentals.


Analysis

The Dollar is being bashed across the currencies due to all that money printing stuff and awful fundamentals. It's already out of the cards that the US will recover first from that recession. Plus the US don't want a strong Dollar and the ECB still doesn't care about the current Euro levels. RBA talked about that they won't have problems with parity in the Aussie though. So everything's easy, mhh? Well, actually not. It's currently too obvious. I smell something. The earnings season is ok so far, and that might lead the FED to the decision to pull out some money earlier than expected and even think about rate hiking earlier than expected. If that comes true it will push the Dollar quite up.


Plan

There's still no need to go long USD. For this week I plan to wait for 1.50 in the Euro at least but will start to short at 1.50+. Not so the Aussie. It will see parity, if not this year then next year.


Open trades

BUY 23,000 units AUD/USD @0.92101
BUY 23,000 units AUD/USD @0.91366
BUY 11,500 units AUD/USD @0.91876
BUY 11,500 units AUD/USD @0.91994

BUY 69,000 units EUR/USD @1.48713
BUY 69,000 units EUR/USD @1.48933
BUY 69,000 units EUR/USD @1.49302
BUY 23,000 units EUR/USD @1.49357

SELL 11,000 units USD/NOK @5.61799
SELL 11,000 units USD/NOK @5.57924


Prices

AUD/USD 0.9220
EUR/USD 1.4930
GBP/USD 1.6310
USD/CAD 1.0340
USD/CHF 1.0140
USD/JPY 90.80
USD/NOK 5.5950
Gold 1055
Silver 17.50
Oil 76.00
Dax 5820
Dow Jones 10010


Account Summary

Starting date: 08-Jan-09
Starting Balance: EUR 10,000

Account balance: 22,528.93 (+122.53%)
Account equity: 23,233.69 (+3.13%)

god work.. fantastic acc

Review

Still everything's fine. Stocks continue to rally, Dow establishes above the 10000 level and the stock guys lock forward to the next earning numbers which are probably good. The Euro did some ranging yesterday where dips were bought but tonight in the Asian session it already scratched on the level of 1.50 (high was 1.4993). Trichet already complains about the strong Euro but this doesn't seem to stop the Euro from climbing right now.


Analysis

So nothing new, I think the 1.50 in the Euro will be reached this week and trigger my TPs for my Euro long positions. Earnings will come in with good numbers but there might be some "sell the facts" reactions. The question is if this (not natural) correlation between the currencies and the stock markets will finally break up. I think so, so we could see a stock markets sell off plus a weaker Dollar or at least not that strong Dollar buying then.

We have to remember that the last years Dollar strength was just due to huge deleveraging and a meltdown in the financial system which lead to huge flows into the Dollar. This won't happen now. The only question is whether the FED or the ECB will start to hike their rates first. Right now it's priced in that the FED will stay that low for a long time. But they could be forced to hike the rate earlier (maybe starting in Q1 next year) which would light some fire under the Dollar.


Plan

Nothing new, but I plan to start shorting the Euro at 1.50+ levels. Will stay long in the Aussie and NOK.


Open trades

BUY 11,500 units AUD/USD @0.91876, target: 1.0000

BUY 69,000 units EUR/USD @1.49132, target: 1.5000
BUY 69,000 units EUR/USD @1.48931, target: 1.5000
BUY 23,000 units EUR/USD @1.49357, target: 1.5100

SELL 11,000 units USD/NOK @5.61799
SELL 11,000 units USD/NOK @5.57924


Prices

AUD/USD 0.9270
EUR/USD 1.4970
GBP/USD 1.6370
USD/CAD 1.0290
USD/CHF 1.0100
USD/JPY 90.10
USD/NOK 5.5600
Gold 1065
Silver 17.80
Oil 76.90
Dax 5850
Dow Jones 10070


Account Summary

Starting date: 08-Jan-09
Starting Balance: EUR 10,000

Account balance: 23,014.85 (+130.15%)
Account equity: 23,853.84 (+3.65%)

Just added a long in the Euro at 1.49629 with 23,000 units, tp is 1.5000 as well.

Added a long in the Aussie at 0.92504 using 11,500 units.

Added another long in the Euro at 1.49611 with 69,000 units, target 1.50, stop below 1.4950.

Nice work Xaron, Its funny to see how tiny the line from success to failure is
Never get tired of it...
Good work!

Review

So the Euro went up yesterday to 1.4993 and left my TP of 1.5000 untouched. Oh well. After that a drop to below 1.4900. Sometimes it's better to take some profits from the table instead of seeing them decrease again. Chuck Butler had some interesting to say in his Daily Pfennig yesterday:

Peter Bernholz (Professor Economics in Basel) studied the world’s 12 most important periods of hyperinflation and discovered that the tipping point occurs when deficits amounted to 40% of the expenditures.

For the United States we have arrived at exactly that point. The deficit of $1.5 trillion amounts to 41.7% of the $3.6 trillion in expenses.

You see, that Peter Bernholz, rounds some numbers, but for those of you keeping score at home, the real point is that the U.S. deficits are greater than 40% of expenditures... And you know me, I truly believe in this history repeating itself, or as Mark Twain put it, it may not repeat itself but it rhymes... Mark Twain also wrote: "It's not worthwhile to try to keep history from repeating itself"...

So, the point I'm trying to make here is that according to Mr. Bernholz, we can soon expect a bout of hyperinflation! OH BOY! Where do I sign up for that? Not only do we have a falling dollar causing us to lose purchasing power, but what purchasing power we have left is going to be eaten away with inflation! Like I said, OH BOY! Gee Willikers, that sounds like the cat's meow! NOT!


Hehe, always funny to read but if that comes true... Uh dear...


Analysis

Daily noise, tiny up and down moves, the Euro is sitting above 1.49 again and I think we'll see a retest of the 1.50 within the next days. After this 100 pips "correction" yesterday it could even be that it won't stop there and just run through to 1.51-53. Let's see...


Plan

Nothing new, but I plan to start shorting the Euro at 1.50+ levels. Will stay long in the Aussie and NOK. Yesterday I've added a short in the Loonie and went long in Gold again. Both Loonie and Aussie are heading for parity, I'm rather sure. I'm now rather high leveraged and will watch the price closely to avoid any bad surprises if it goes against my bias.


Open trades

BUY 11,500 units AUD/USD @0.91876, target: 1.0000
BUY 46,000 units AUD/USD @0.91983, target: 0.9300
BUY 11,500 units AUD/USD @0.92504, target: 1.0000

BUY 69,000 units EUR/USD @1.48931, target: 1.5000
BUY 69,000 units EUR/USD @1.49117, target: 1.5000
BUY 46,000 units EUR/USD @1.49300, target: 1.5000
BUY 23,000 units EUR/USD @1.49357, target: 1.5100
BUY 23,000 units EUR/USD @1.49629, target: 1.5000

SELL 23,000 units USD/CAD @1.04941

SELL 11,000 units USD/NOK @5.57924
SELL 11,000 units USD/NOK @5.61799

BUY 10 units XAU/USD @1,057.270


Prices

AUD/USD 0.9240
EUR/USD 1.4940
GBP/USD 1.6410
USD/CAD 1.0490
USD/CHF 1.0120
USD/JPY 90.70
USD/NOK 5.5980
Gold 1056
Silver 17.50
Oil 76.30
Dax 5840
Dow Jones 10040


Account Summary

Starting date: 08-Jan-09
Starting Balance: EUR 10,000

Account balance: 23,016.61 (+130.17%)
Account equity: 23,542.07 (+2.28%)

Exceptional great day, I not only crossed the 24k no, I crossed the 25k today.

Well done Xaron.

Not that it's a point of discussion on your thread but i thought it interesting you mentioned building in shorts on EURUSD from 1.50? I see quite a bit of blue sky to come yet, especially with the dollar being so weak.

Anyway, i digress. Well done again.

Yep, I'm short now with a small entry:

http://img188.imageshack.us/img188/1...t211009.th.png

Nice Xaron, now you are flying man, keep it going.