High Probability

most of yesterday and good part of today setting up new micro with fxdd.
all set just waiting for funds to post.
+3 pips
most likely pa will test 200 ema but 3 pips is 3 pips

nice day
couple trades in the demo
and a couple trades in another account
all good

all good entry points, 2nd ashi after a change of color...
all pullback entry points.

on the 15 min, macd show divergence, although macd has crossed above 0 line in between the measurements.
on higher time frames shows several bounces in the past off the 200 ema.. 30 min, where pa is right now, testing the 200 ema on the 30 min as well as on the 15 min, 5 min and 1 m.
all testing 200 ema... sitting on s1 after bouncing on it twice. strong support area.
most likely heading up to the pivot point for a test there.

I need to enter on 2nd ashi smoothed after a color change..
once I determine the possible trend and target.
so I would be waiting for 2nd bright green ashi smoothed on this chart to enter long, tgt pivot point

tempted to jump in but only 1 ashi smoothed bright green, could still some downside for a test of the 200 ema...

shows 5min

now we wait to see

no doubt that the pa would reach the target but as I often do, I close early just in case... +5 pips
So I am focusing on building the equity in the account, not just getting big wins. So far so good... small trades but the equity is building, this is what I want...

counter trend
the last pullback was significant, so volatility increasing, maybe this will bring a in a few pips

same lesson over and over again...
counter trend is not worth the risk.
only time counter trend may be worth it is if is actually a reversal..
it's not clear what is going on at this point, the pa might not actually touch the pivot point, this may be as far it goes and now is now turning down.
The stop was taken out because I did not want to risk more than 6 pips.
But then I went long, so now I may bet hit both ways, the long may not be good.
So important to have a very clear idea of trend and target...
from the looks of thing this is headed to test the 200 ema.
I will briefly consult macd for divergences and confirmations

not the best thing to do,
but, I opened 3 lots short
wanting to regain the equity in a short quick move.

could have stayed in a little longer, the trade for triple down was good, only made back a little of the lost equity on the 2 bad trades...

Good morning Jiva,

I could not sleep so I am back at it earlier. Hows trading been? Mine..... very disappointing. Still profitable for the week..... barely (+4). Need to let my winners run better. trades taken this week is 9-3. But only up +4....... not proud, but at least I know what my hurdle is. I will report in later this morning. Go get em!

Lohad

so while I got all entangled and stumbled all over myself, the big move to the pivot did happen..
These pivots and 200 ema and suppports and resistances are just so powerful.
I need to not underestimate them.

Meditation = Check
3 cups of Coffee = Check (welcome back mental faculties)
3-4 Smokes = Check

Time to hunt the pips. Morning has Broken!

but I want to see if pa goes to the 200 ema

Sorry Jiva! the last post was supposed to be in my journal. Maybe I need another cup of coffee!

Lohad

here we go with those counter trend trades again.
for the amt I am willing to risk on a stop I need trades with strong momentum in the direction of the trend. Even if the trade is good if there is not that kind of burst then it can fall back for more risk than I am willing to take before it turns good.
To remember this seems to be the hardest thing in the world for me. But I will get it...
That's why waiting to enter only on the 2nd ashi is so important. To enter late means to have missed the burst, to enter too early, the signal is not confirmed.

that's the perfect set up,
2nd ashi to change color
spring boarding off the pivot point.
good for a burst of +12 pips...