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4H Banker Buster

  • #261
  • Oct 20, 2009 8:34am Oct 20, 2009 8:34am
Quoting shiko
Pharoah, how is trading going.
I messed up myself badly last week and into this one. Have tried to trade so many different things that completely lost focus
Refocusing right now.
Yeah shiko, take a breather, relax, and refocus, if your mind is jetting, so with ur cash.

We are currently on the hunt for a filter of some sort that can either help us filter out bad trades, or reduce the losses from them, if anyone has an suggestions all will be considered and tested.
  • #262
  • Oct 20, 2009 11:43am Oct 20, 2009 11:43am
Idea:

Instead of waiting for price to come to 20 pips above/below the box, why not wait for candle to close 20 pips above/below the box?

Quoting Pharoah
Yeah shiko, take a breather, relax, and refocus, if your mind is jetting, so with ur cash.

We are currently on the hunt for a filter of some sort that can either help us filter out bad trades, or reduce the losses from them, if anyone has an suggestions all will be considered and tested.
  • #263
  • Oct 20, 2009 11:50am Oct 20, 2009 11:50am
Quoting nondisclosure00
Idea:

Instead of waiting for price to come to 20 pips above/below the box, why not wait for candle to close 20 pips above/below the box?
A little confused as to what you mean here, are you referring to the Red MA location?
  • #264
  • Oct 20, 2009 11:54am Oct 20, 2009 11:54am
Sorry, I should have been more specific.

In your system you place 2 pending orders, one on each side 20 pips away from the box. Instead of doing that, just wait until a candle closes at or above/below your target, then open the position.

Quoting Pharoah
A little confused as to what you mean here, are you referring to the Red MA location?
  • #265
  • Oct 20, 2009 12:03pm Oct 20, 2009 12:03pm
Quoting nondisclosure00
Sorry, I should have been more specific.

In your system you place 2 pending orders, one on each side 20 pips away from the box. Instead of doing that, just wait until a candle closes at or above/below your target, then open the position.
I understand now, but the thing is, there is no 20 pip buffer, the box is the box, when the price goes outside the box, a trade is triggered.

The only problem I see with that is this, if the PA closes a candle outside of the box, and a trade is triggered, if price decides to reverse, the loss would be at least 20 pips larger. For example

Long Order
Box Top @ 140.00
Box Breakout Close @ 140.30 (20 pips+ above the box top)
Trade entered, Stoploss Set to 139.50
Trade gets stopped out @ 139.50 for a loss of 80 pips

Original Method
Long Order
Box Top @ 140.00
Box Breakout @ 140.00
Trade entered @ 140.00, Stoploss set to 139.50
Trade gets stopped out @ 139.5 for a loss of 50 pips

Still tho, if you think it'll work test it out, don't dismiss anything just because I say so, maybe I don't understand fully what you mean.
  • #266
  • Oct 20, 2009 12:15pm Oct 20, 2009 12:15pm
I see your reasoning. I just think that doing the 'close' way, you've got a better chance of hitting a trend. I've seen other break out strategies work pretty well like that.

I'll test it out when I get a chance. I'm one of the lucky few who are lucky to not only have job, but actually like it. It just doesn't pay that well.

Quoting Pharoah
I understand now, but the thing is, there is no 20 pip buffer, the box is the box, when the price goes outside the box, a trade is triggered.

The only problem I see with that is this, if the PA closes a candle outside of the box, and a trade is triggered, if price decides to reverse, the loss would be at least 20 pips larger. For example

Long Order
Box Top @ 140.00
Box Breakout Close @ 140.30 (20 pips+ above the box top)
Trade entered, Stoploss Set to 139.50
Trade gets stopped out @ 139.50 for a loss of 80 pips

Original Method
Long Order
Box...
  • #267
  • Oct 20, 2009 12:40pm Oct 20, 2009 12:40pm
Quoting nondisclosure00
I see your reasoning. I just think that doing the 'close' way, you've got a better chance of hitting a trend. I've seen other break out strategies work pretty well like that.

I'll test it out when I get a chance. I'm one of the lucky few who are lucky to not only have job, but actually like it. It just doesn't pay that well.
As long as it pays the bills and keeps food on your table, nothing beats doing what you enjoy.

Take your time, there is no rush
  • #268
  • Oct 20, 2009 6:17pm Oct 20, 2009 6:17pm
Quoting Pharoah
Yeah shiko, take a breather, relax, and refocus, if your mind is jetting, so with ur cash.

We are currently on the hunt for a filter of some sort that can either help us filter out bad trades, or reduce the losses from them, if anyone has an suggestions all will be considered and tested.

I can say phew for one account. Got out successfully even with small gain. But really got a lesson of not mixing things One more account is still hanging.
If I am correct I might get out there as well.

I think no filter will help. Only your own discretion. and since it is mechanical system all signals must be taken. I think the best way is to use smaller box and difference in volatility to increase R:R to cover all small losses.
In all good break out strategies losses must be kept short. and with original box it is impossible.
  • #269
  • Oct 20, 2009 6:58pm Oct 20, 2009 6:58pm
Quoting shiko
I can say phew for one account. Got out successfully even with small gain. But really got a lesson of not mixing things One more account is still hanging.
If I am correct I might get out there as well.

I think no filter will help. Only your own discretion. and since it is mechanical system all signals must be taken. I think the best way is to use smaller box and difference in volatility to increase R:R to cover all small losses.
In all good break out strategies losses must be kept short. and with original box it is impossible.
I'm wondering if lot size would also be better handled based on something instead of filtering out trades, like if there is a notably strong uptrend, and the price breaks out low, it trades at a much smaller lot size than if it was to breakout high maybe?
  • #270
  • Oct 21, 2009 12:47am Oct 21, 2009 12:47am
I think that might be an excellent idea Pharoah.

so if counter trend only say 0.5 normal position?
  • #271
  • Oct 21, 2009 3:17am Oct 21, 2009 3:17am
Quoting Pharoah
I'm wondering if lot size would also be better handled based on something instead of filtering out trades, like if there is a notably strong uptrend, and the price breaks out low, it trades at a much smaller lot size than if it was to breakout high maybe?

I believe another important thing is to learn how to add to profitable positions when things moving in positive direction... to milk it to maximum. If you read Turtles, they had that complete system where they not only were cutting losses short, but were adding to winning positions in addition to letting them run. it is hard part. but it would let sustain losses but make it really big when things start moving. Like last week G/J move. Imagine adding to winning positions. But how to do it is easier to say than to do. i think, it is probably should be related to using part of winning position capital as insurance for new position after new S/R broken and holds.
  • #272
  • Oct 21, 2009 3:25am Oct 21, 2009 3:25am
Quoting shiko
I believe another important thing is to learn how to add to profitable positions when things moving in positive direction... to milk it to maximum. If you read Turtles, they had that complete system where they not only were cutting losses short, but were adding to winning positions in addition to letting them run. it is hard part. but it would let sustain losses but make it really big when things start moving. Like last week G/J move. Imagine adding to winning positions. But how to do it is easier to say than to do. i think, it...
Yeah, considering half position would be closed at a TP1 point, I'm not exactly sure, Maybe have it so the TP point for close partial only active if the setup suspects a reversal? Otherwise, Add to the position at TP1?
  • #273
  • Oct 21, 2009 5:42am Oct 21, 2009 5:42am
Sounds to me that the EA needs a brain of its own for that one!!
Flashforward!
  • #274
  • Oct 21, 2009 11:44am Oct 21, 2009 11:44am
Quoting gillybabe
Sounds to me that the EA needs a brain of its own for that one!!
Flashforward!
Naw, not really, I just have to figure out what would give me the clearest signal, remember, we're not trying to cut the pip loss, just the pip value in case of a loss.
  • #275
  • Oct 22, 2009 11:14am Oct 22, 2009 11:14am
After trading what I devised myself, I would say that which candle doesn't matter. The smaller it is the better. and the box doe snot have to take all this candle. any break out strategy should keep losses small and let profits run, right? No so fast.
part of profits should run and not even 50% but less. The point in taking partly profits to not let account to slip into DD while waiting for that big move. actually, this might be profitable even before that big move happens. Generally, position size, box size, how much pips you take is a key.
  • #276
  • Oct 22, 2009 11:27am Oct 22, 2009 11:27am
Quoting shiko
After trading what I devised myself, I would say that which candle doesn't matter. The smaller it is the better. and the box doe snot have to take all this candle. any break out strategy should keep losses small and let profits run, right? No so fast.
part of profits should run and not even 50% but less. The point in taking partly profits to not let account to slip into DD while waiting for that big move. actually, this might be profitable even before that big move happens. Generally, position size, box size, how much pips you take is a key.
I've been doing 90% close at 50-100 pips, and they are showing positive results.

And an update for everyone as well, programming is under way again and is showing some positive results. I'm still unsure exactly what method we are going to use to determine lot size, box size, and TP point to make it dynamic to market conditions. But rest assured, we are working diligently to help make you a more profitable trader.
  • #277
  • Oct 22, 2009 12:15pm Oct 22, 2009 12:15pm
Quoting Pharoah
I've been doing 90% close at 50-100 pips, and they are showing positive results.

And an update for everyone as well, programming is under way again and is showing some positive results. I'm still unsure exactly what method we are going to use to determine lot size, box size, and TP point to make it dynamic to market conditions. But rest assured, we are working diligently to help make you a more profitable trader.

We are thinking similar thought
I close 75% and let 25% run. results are positiove so far. but this method will work in choppy markets too. today results still were positive.
  • #278
  • Oct 22, 2009 12:27pm Oct 22, 2009 12:27pm
Quoting shiko
We are thinking similar thought
I close 75% and let 25% run. results are positiove so far. but this method will work in choppy markets too. today results still were positive.
Exactly, I think it's just a matter of determining what the optimal Close Partial point is depending on volatility or something similar
  • #279
  • Oct 22, 2009 11:18pm Oct 22, 2009 11:18pm
Quoting Pharoah
Yeah, considering half position would be closed at a TP1 point, I'm not exactly sure, Maybe have it so the TP point for close partial only active if the setup suspects a reversal? Otherwise, Add to the position at TP1?
I've been thinking the close half at TP1 is a bit arbitrary, even though it comes from back testing &/or forward testing.

What if instead of closing at TP1, a trailing stop loss is applied & as it goes more in profit the stoploss closes in on the price. Not just move up in step with the price. So eventually it cant help but be hit.
It should just stretch that first half profit a bit further. If price powers away into a spike, the stoploss would catch up faster. Thats if its balanced/ adjusted right (optimized).
Of course if the price drops back just after the TP1 point, it would hit the stoploss early. So I spose its like risking a part of the bankable profit for more profit.

cheers scalpz
Target 2 : Stoploss in the green
  • #280
  • Oct 22, 2009 11:51pm Oct 22, 2009 11:51pm
Quoting scalpz
I've been thinking the close half at TP1 is a bit arbitrary, even though it comes from back testing &/or forward testing.

What if instead of closing at TP1, a trailing stop loss is applied & as it goes more in profit the stoploss closes in on the price. Not just move up in step with the price. So eventually it cant help but be hit.
It should just stretch that first half profit a bit further. If price powers away into a spike, the stoploss would catch up faster. Thats if its balanced/ adjusted right (optimized).
Of course if the price drops back...
I understand exactly what your saying, and it does make sense, I will look into this as it allows for spikes in the market to be captured for the most part, very interesting, thanks
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