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4H Box Breakout

  • #4,961
  • Edited 3:21pm Oct 18, 2009 2:29pm | Edited 3:21pm
So I come with ideas, even dumb but at least I try.

What if we take the BO of the first 4H candle after a pull back on the 15 mins charts ?

What I mean by pullback is a candle who break upside the last lower candle (for a buy)

This will give more falls signals but once the good one taken (very small stop loss) and if the trade is going the good way, we can have a huge R:R if the take profit is hit.

Also by this way we do not need any buffer.

This could be the way Ace was thinking about his new system, more loss but much bigger R:R.

2 weeks ago I made 22% on my account by risking 1%, this give us a R:R of 1:22.

I think this is the way to improve this system, not by cutting the profit at TP1/TP2, etc... neither by putting another entry, which could be better at some times and worse at another.

So the main thing is not the entry but the stop loss when you enter the market, which give you the best R:R.




Rergards,
Billyjoe
  • #4,962
  • Oct 18, 2009 2:29pm Oct 18, 2009 2:29pm
Quoting lolpie
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...84#post2997584

He details it in the Excel file

Basically:

1) Move SL to BE + 20 pips once 1X TP is reached

2) Move SL to 1X when price reaches 2X

3) Move SL to 3X when price reaches 4X and let profit run to weekend

4) Do not trade when box size is > than 200


Thanks Lolpie !

  • #4,963
  • Oct 18, 2009 2:40pm Oct 18, 2009 2:40pm
Jusqt my thougts but I really think that put the stop loss at BE + 20 pips is totally wrong, what is 20 pips in the pocket for a potential of much more ?

We are talking about a weekly target, 20 pips profits give us more risk to get out of the trade for a potentiel of profit which is much more than 20 pips, maybe 200/300/600 pips.

I mean by that we increase our chance to be out even if the trade is going up after a retracement/pull back, this only to get 20 pips ?

A BE I could understand but a 20 pips profit...

Billyjoe
  • #4,964
  • Oct 18, 2009 3:35pm Oct 18, 2009 3:35pm
Quoting Billyjoe
Jusqt my thougts but I really think that put the stop loss at BE + 20 pips is totally wrong, what is 20 pips in the pocket for a potential of much more ?

We are talking about a weekly target, 20 pips profits give us more risk to get out of the trade for a potentiel of profit which is much more than 20 pips, maybe 200/300/600 pips.

I mean by that we increase our chance to be out even if the trade is going up after a retracement/pull back, this only to get 20 pips ?

A BE I could understand but a 20 pips profit...

Billyjoe
I think you misunderstood...you're setting the SL to be 20 pips past your break even point, so if the price retraces you're at least locking in 20 pips. Your TP is still 4x for GBPJPY
  • #4,965
  • Oct 18, 2009 3:54pm Oct 18, 2009 3:54pm
Quoting lolpie
I think you misunderstood...you're setting the SL to be 20 pips past your break even point, so if the price retraces you're at least locking in 20 pips. Your TP is still 4x for GBPJPY

It is exactly what I am saying,

let say the prices (long) goes down until 19 pips over your entry on wednesday and goes back to TP4 on friday, you are out with 20 pips in profit but missed the TP4, this only because your ridiculous 20 pips which is nothing compare to TP4.

In other words you are taking a risk of 20 pips (profit) for a TP4 which would be much more than 20 pips (maybe 10x/x20/x30), so better take it, this mean let the price at BE rather than +20 pips.


Billyjoe
  • #4,966
  • Oct 18, 2009 6:15pm Oct 18, 2009 6:15pm
Quoting Billyjoe
It is exactly what I am saying,

let say the prices (long) goes down until 19 pips over your entry on wednesday and goes back to TP4 on friday, you are out with 20 pips in profit but missed the TP4, this only because your ridiculous 20 pips which is nothing compare to TP4.

In other words you are taking a risk of 20 pips (profit) for a TP4 which would be much more than 20 pips (maybe 10x/x20/x30), so better take it, this mean let the price at BE rather than +20 pips.


Billyjoe
I think it's better to be concerned with risk when placing a trade rather than the potential profit.

If the trade does retrace it'll probably keep retracing and touch your other order, so might as well lock in 20 pips of profit and lose out on 4x TP than hit BE or worse yet, your original SL. That's my thinking at least. Plus danno96's backtest results were awesome so I won't touch his variations unless someone comes up with a better strategy

Btw I liked the idea you posted about using M15 to enter..can you post a sample trade when you get the time?
  • #4,967
  • Oct 20, 2009 8:24am Oct 20, 2009 8:24am
Quoting Billyjoe
Hello guys,

I am still wondering why nobody came with an idea to increase the R:R as Ace mentionned for his new system, eveyone was claiming for this new system but nobody came with ideas (even dumb ideas).

Why ?


Billyjoe

well, I came with dumb idea, but nobody listened...
  • #4,968
  • Oct 20, 2009 8:28am Oct 20, 2009 8:28am
actually idea was not that dumb but still guys were too busy doing other things ... no one with computer skills tested my proposal.
  • #4,969
  • Oct 20, 2009 8:35am Oct 20, 2009 8:35am
Quoting shiko
actually idea was not that dumb but still guys were too busy doing other things ... no one with computer skills tested my proposal.
What was your proposal?
  • #4,970
  • Oct 20, 2009 8:38am Oct 20, 2009 8:38am
Quoting Pharoah
What was your proposal?

week last candle. not week first candle. first candle tends to be almost always much bigger than the last.
just check charts visually.
you will see. R:R is very good.
  • #4,971
  • Oct 20, 2009 8:39am Oct 20, 2009 8:39am
Quoting shiko
week last candle. not week first candle. first candle tends to be almost always much bigger than the last.
just check charts visually.
you will see. R:R is very good.
Right, I remember this, I believe it could definitely improve R:R, but I also remember having a single concern about it, what if the price on monday open is already outside of the box created by friday close due to weekend movement?
  • #4,972
  • Oct 20, 2009 8:44am Oct 20, 2009 8:44am
Quoting Pharoah
Right, I remember this, I believe it could definitely improve R:R, but I also remember having a single concern about it, what if the price on monday open is already outside of the box created by friday close due to weekend movement?

it should be back tested. with few different rules regarding gaps...enter or not when the gap present. I think statistics is all here.
also, with such small box and good R:R, it is possible to enter on all signals during the week. except for may be Friday.
If you have box of 50 pips.sometimes it might be even less. 150 pips moves happen often enough to cover some losses before big move comes.
  • #4,973
  • Oct 20, 2009 8:49am Oct 20, 2009 8:49am
one more proposal. While FXDD opens late on Sunday., You can open demo with Oanda. You can see actions since 5:00 p.m. EST the latest and very often even since 3:00 p.m.
  • #4,974
  • Oct 21, 2009 12:02am Oct 21, 2009 12:02am
Quoting shiko
week last candle. not week first candle. first candle tends to be almost always much bigger than the last.
just check charts visually.
you will see. R:R is very good.
I eyeballed it on ibfx and it did not appear any more successful. Only went back a couple of months but didn't see anything significant.
  • #4,975
  • Oct 21, 2009 12:54am Oct 21, 2009 12:54am
I dont think it matters much from which candle you are entering.

the idea of this system is that price should move away from the start of the week and if it doesnt, all entries at the start of the week are history.
  • #4,976
  • Oct 23, 2009 2:15pm Oct 23, 2009 2:15pm
Got buttraped by GBPJPY and hit SL on both positions, but managed to hit BE and actually make $0.89 from the EURJPY (+253 pips). Overall a decent week.

http://www.myfxbook.com/members/aran...ariations/3327
  • #4,977
  • Oct 27, 2009 5:32pm Oct 27, 2009 5:32pm
This thread is officially DEAD!
  • #4,978
  • Oct 27, 2009 8:36pm Oct 27, 2009 8:36pm
But it works for me!
“Well, you know, I was a human being before I became a businessman.”
  • #4,979
  • Oct 28, 2009 12:54am Oct 28, 2009 12:54am
RIP
  • #4,980
  • Oct 28, 2009 1:16am Oct 28, 2009 1:16am
Quoting 11andy11
RIP
Indeed.
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