The truth of Price Action and Ranges

Right one more attempt to explain.

Sorry I have made this hard to understand... once you see what I mean the penny will drop.

This example is from the chart on post 4.

As always I am not top and bottom picking but if a high forms and it looks like I may get a signal short I will do my ranges quickly to see if the high looks finished or there is a target point 15pips higher.

OK let start.

Have a look at the drawing of the chart.
a) First I will take the range from A-B (914 - 857) = 57 pips
I will then use the excel spread sheet attched to work out targets but here it will all be manual.

b) Take the range 57 which = 100% of the last swing long. Divide in 2 = 28.5 = 50% etc you should be able to work out the other ranges.

We now have the percentages of the laast run long (A-B)

50% = 28.5
100% = 57
150% = 85
200% = 114

c) Now we want to calculate possible targets long from the NEW low point C.
So we take point C (889) and add the calculated percentages of the last swinglong.

889 + 28.5 (50%) = 918 this is 50% of the last swing long.
889 + 57 (100%) = 946 this is 100% of the last swing long.
889 + 85 (150%) = 975 this is 150% of the last swing long.
889 + 114 (200%) = 1003 this is 200% of the last swing long.

Attched is a picture of my excel spreed sheet.

Point D = 959

So price does not fit the 50%, 100% and is under 150%
When this happens I look for an average... usually 50 +100 but in this case its 100+150 (946 + 975)/2 = 960

Yes I have made an error on this chart.. won't be the last.

But also you would have calculated the swing long from the 123 and the 150% = 962.

So using 2 swing long you have a nice price group at this number so you feel good that this might be a high and are happy to take the next short signal.

Looking at point E now.
I alwsys start with the largest most recient range and work backwards.

The largest range short is at the start of the chart befor B
901-857 swing short.

50% = 937
100% = 915
low is 906.

If we want confimation from another swing we will use B-C swing short 25 pips and do the same thing.

50% 947
100% 934
150% 922
200% 909
low is 906

So we have 915 and 906 100% and 200% of the last 2 swings short.
Low 906

We are now looking for F

Take the last swing long 3 - D (959 - 909) and add the range to point E

50% = 931
High is 935

We are looking for point H from the 906 low.

last swings long
(1-D) 889-959 = 100% 976
(E-F) 906-935 = 200% 964
(3-D) 959-909 = average 100% + 150% = 968

High 967
Just for interest average the three prices... 976+964+968 /3 = 969

OK this looks like a good high I feel confodent to take the next short signal based on PA.

Hope that make its clear as mud.
Regards
Duke.

Harry,
there are some mistake on the charts.

What I was trying to explain is if a high or low does not make sense do a quick calculation of the averages of 2 of the target prices.

50% +100% or 100% + 150%.

Sorry Superscalper not sure about your chart.

But remember it comparing the last range to the current range all in the same direction

Hi All,

There is an easy way to do this if you use your fib expansion tool. See chart.

Agree but I dont like the lines on m,y chart...

I may have 2-3 ranges giving a cluster high and I don't want all that on my chart..

Any way the idea was to show you somthing which I find useful.

I hope that I have achived that.

Hi Duke900

Do you trade on numerical basis with "wave lines" without any indicators?
That could be a great idea!

Regards

I don't use any indicators... I trade what I see on the chart.

I am only interest in IF a high or low is in place does it make sense?
If the high or low looks good and makes sense then I will take the next signal.

I use these price targets to feel comfitable with were price is going... where shoud the retracment stop? 50% 100% of the last swing?

I use them to place my stop at a good sensible level when in a trade.

I also use them to exit if a target is hit and PA say GET OUT.

As I say Top and Bottom picking is a hard job and one that I try not to do. I just want to understand PA and take my signals based on the excellent The System II (Yes with irony) system. That system is based on trading PA only.

The aim is to get runners, they pay the bills.
cheers

Duke,
Thanks, it is all clear now after your good explanantion in post #21.
I must say this is a great tool.
Harry

A couple of examples of the pound

Hi Duke,

How normally do you take your profit?
By following 50%,100%... or ?

And,another question.
How do you determine that is the highest high? or lowest low?
What if you expected to be long, but ends up, it goes to a different direction?

Great Thread Duke!I've long noticed the tendency for 100% runs and have used it to some degree for my trading but its always easier for me to see it all after the fact, so this thread is a great reminder for me to focus more on looking ahead where these targets are and watching price action around these areas. Its amazing to me how often this rule acts out to the pip. See my GU weekly chart. I didn't trade this by the way but it could have been predicted, right? WOW!

Hi Duke900

Thank you for sharing your ideas.

Many thanks for this good trading system. Good work!

Kindest regards

Someone working in this system??


Thanks DUKE 900 for sharing.

This is a chart showing ALL entries based on FCR entry after a high or low is in place.

High or low is in place within 3pips then I look for a reverse entry... based on FX rules.. eg FCR.

an example of the last low and last high..

remember that I always use the last swing... the obvious swings and some times a larger swing if the current swin is inside this and its still ralivant.

some times I will have 2-3 ranges giving a high with in 3pips and they are often good turns espeially around 200%

I am carfull taking FCR breaks when 200-250% of the last swing has been done.

Market random my ass.

oppsss forgot to add.

Hi Duke,
i read your pm and checked out ur charts..
i still don't understand what u are doing exactly.. what are these % based on? are the fibo craps or am i missing something?
3pips swings? reverse on 2nd fcr?

please clearify some of these.. i take look again.

Thanks.

Everything is based on the last swing in the same direction, last swing up will give you targets for the next swing up.

The % are based on the following.

1) when a high / low is in place and I want to know if it is likley to hold I will look first at 50%, 100%,150% etc of the last 5min swing in the same direction. If it is not one of these numbers then I look at ....

2) an average of either 50% +100% or 150% +200% etc.. these are the additional set of numbers on the right of my spread sheet.

say 100 is 50% and 150 is 100% the the average is 125.

PA will be eaither 1) a 50% etc or 2) an average of two fibs such as 50% + 100%.

It seems hard to explain but it is quite simeple once you get your head around it.

Hi Duke90

I am very keen in your computing trading method... maybe because I like maths

By the way I am confused with your images and the calculations.
Sorry English is not my main language.

Do you think you can explain "one at a time?"
Meaning to explain for a long entry and ignore others... in a simple manner.

I do not know if you understand what I clarify above?
Well you can email me at [email protected]

Thank you for your time and efforts. (I am a newbie, thou)