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Better-than-the-wormhole 555 replies

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The WoRmHoLe

  • #3,401
  • Oct 16, 2009 3:18pm Oct 16, 2009 3:18pm
Quoting Inzider
What about 1.55 now....? LOL

Have a good Week-end Azim!

Later!
5300 actually. You will see it soon.

Enjoy your weekend matt.
Thank You
  • #3,402
  • Oct 16, 2009 3:33pm Oct 16, 2009 3:33pm
Quoting wormboy
5300 actually. You will see it soon.

Enjoy your weekend matt.
By year end I believe brother! Keep up the hard work!
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #3,403
  • Oct 16, 2009 3:36pm Oct 16, 2009 3:36pm
yo eo!
hey man how the hell have you been? no ... actually where the hell have you been brother?

Yea, we'll get there
Thank You
  • #3,404
  • Oct 16, 2009 3:39pm Oct 16, 2009 3:39pm
Quoting wormboy
yo eo!
hey man how the hell have you been? no ... actually where the hell have you been brother?

Yea, we'll get there
I'm buried in a whole lot of personal shit! It's getting worked out though.

Still trading as usual, been trading EJ right along with GU just as much intraday as of late and loving the hell out of it. Pippage is nice!

How you been brother?
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #3,405
  • Oct 16, 2009 3:51pm Oct 16, 2009 3:51pm
hope it's nothing you can't handle bro
Good to know you're not slipping up on the trading too.
I am doing okay thanks. Trading this week had not been good for myself unfortunately. Closed the books this week with almost 3% loss.
A lot of work to be done for the rest of this month for me by the looks of it.
Time will tell. Have a good one bro!
Thank You
  • #3,406
  • Oct 16, 2009 5:52pm Oct 16, 2009 5:52pm
Quoting eohater
I'm buried in a whole lot of personal shit! It's getting worked out though.

Still trading as usual, been trading EJ right along with GU just as much intraday as of late and loving the hell out of it. Pippage is nice!

How you been brother?

sincerely hope ur doing fine..of which i am sure

as for gu i think next ok probabilities for reaction will def have to do something with x-ed areas

i do not care if it breaks out or not since both sides might be tradable
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Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #3,407
  • Oct 17, 2009 6:01am Oct 17, 2009 6:01am
Hi Azim,

Ok, haven't posted here for a while - been trading lol......This is my current view of Cable tho....

FLAT ---- Don't like current PA and can't bring myself to buy either the pound or Dollar - they are both basket cases IMHO....

I think it'll range for possibly an extended period so I may just trade the range between the S/r drawn on the chart in orange and green.

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  • #3,408
  • Oct 17, 2009 6:28am Oct 17, 2009 6:28am
Those who saying it a short squeeze must understand that we had 133 days of consolidation hence we can expect a breakout like this i expect more continuous move upside and more sharp move when we break last defense. I believe more then 1200 pips. Here still buyers are in total control and we heading firmly to the last defense. Those who are loading shorts must be aware they are screwed better sideline i suggest.

Here is my view for cable
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  • #3,409
  • Oct 17, 2009 7:29am Oct 17, 2009 7:29am
Quoting stewrigh
Hi Azim,

Ok, haven't posted here for a while - been trading lol......
Hey stew Good to have you back!

I tend to agree both usd & sterling now are in a limbo & we might see consolidation before we slide again. Although the weekly did close on a high, & admittingly I had let my bias to the downside got the better of my judgement this week when I was shorting on a strong upwards momentum, at the moment it's too close to the descending utl which in my opinion holds the major trend down. Already there were signs of of the momentum waning late into thursday. Well I guess we'll have to wait and see how they open on Monday before confirming if this in fact is the actual move to flip the long term trend or just a ruse.
Have a good one!
Thank You
  • #3,410
  • Oct 17, 2009 7:50am Oct 17, 2009 7:50am
My take on the dragon...

No real trend but I like the Confluence of S/R - 38 fib - 200 ema - pin bar in space(not a great pin but hey you can't have it all). - H8 chart

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  • #3,411
  • Oct 17, 2009 7:58am Oct 17, 2009 7:58am
Just noticed this....

Don't do trend-lines - I find them a bit too subjective, but this looked interesting and adds a bit more to the confluence of indicators.

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  • #3,412
  • Oct 17, 2009 4:20pm Oct 17, 2009 4:20pm
Quoting pakitrader
Those who saying it a short squeeze must understand that we had 133 days of consolidation hence we can expect a breakout like this i expect more continuous move upside and more sharp move when we break last defense. I believe more then 1200 pips. Here still buyers are in total control and we heading firmly to the last defense. Those who are loading shorts must be aware they are screwed better sideline i suggest.

Here is my view for cable

Listen,

I'd understand you'd want to sound clever but please do not come into my thread and splurt bullshit again. Nobody here said this was a short squeeze.

Second, for you to claim 1200 pips upmove it will mean the weekly descending utl would have to flip before there is a continuation. This is the weekly chart right here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...5&d=1255675090

This is the same weekly chart that has the same descending utl for such a long time. The charts:
1.http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2743
2.http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2900
3.http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2973

There had been many tests to break the utl resistance before this & each & everyone of the attempts had failed. This is a very significant resistance & one has to be a complete fool to ignore the fact. It can & will fly towards 7000 or 8000 level IF the utl resistance gives way. The trend is still down.
And your understanding of patterns are way off. For starters, rising wedges tend to break down in a big way instead of up. I suggest you study them.
And one more thing, if you had not seen the daily close, I suggest you look again. If you had not looked at the dollar index, I suggest you look again.
And if you still think that buyers are still in control, look at the halfday chart below again & again.
The point I'm trying to make is, yes the momentum is up, and the further over 1000 pips up is certainly possible, but not when the current resistance still stands.
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Thank You
  • #3,413
  • Edited 6:27am Oct 18, 2009 6:13am | Edited 6:27am
Quoting qweabc
lol. Exactly why I stopped wasting my time with "Interactive Trading". Everyone has a perfect explanation for everything that's happenning. What exactly is a "Short Squeeze" in forex, kind sir? Did someone just make an offer to buy out the entire circulation of pounds? or is everyone trying to get out of their short futures position to avoid delivery of pounds? FX futures are cash-settled, so they're not susceptible to short squeezes. Even if this were the case, the spot market is thousands of times larger than the futures market.
Of course short squeezes occur in the spot market as large numbers of stops are triggered, which exerts more upward pressure and momentum on the underlying price.

The very fact that stops, and option barriers, are often clustered at or just above key areas of resistance (something which cannot be denied) would logically suggest that additional buying pressure would ensue, should price breach these aforementioned areas.

The additional flurry of buy orders that inevitably occurs - as weak and existing shorts are hurriedly covered (to avoid greater losses) and option traders square their newly calculated short delta cash positions, which will also entice short-term technical traders into fresh long positions to take advantage of the price action developing - is what I consider to be a typical short-squeeze in the spot market. It is not because existing shorts fear there will be a shortage of sterling, more these shorts are fearful that the velocity of the move against them will mean greater losses if they fail to cover their positions expeditiously.

Last week's COT report illustrated just how extreme short sterling positions were. Whilst the OTC spot market is far larger than the market for such exchange traded deals, this report does provide one with a broad picture of the likely underlying sentiment and speculative positioning towards sterling in the OTC spot and options market.
  • #3,414
  • Oct 18, 2009 6:37am Oct 18, 2009 6:37am
i may be a newbie here but my understanding is all these should be left for 'interactive trading' subforum. here we share our trades and reasons for taking them as well as discuss what could be improved. so fellas, let's keep strictly to that.

no more 'intelligent' explanations please?
  • #3,415
  • Oct 18, 2009 6:42am Oct 18, 2009 6:42am
Quoting herzog21
i may be a newbie here but my understanding is all these should be left for 'interactive trading' subforum. here we share our trades and reasons for taking them as well as discuss what could be improved. so fellas, let's keep strictly to that.

no more 'intelligent' explanations please?
Azim is a good friend of mine who actively encourages me to post on this thread. It is Sunday, the market is closed, so I deem that such discussion is healthy and does not occupy too much space.

However, if Azim thinks otherwise, then I shall respect his wishes, given that he, not you, is the owner of the thread, and not make any further posts. If you think otherwise, then simply do not read the offending contributions.

Good luck.
  • #3,416
  • Oct 18, 2009 7:40am Oct 18, 2009 7:40am
1. Stops getting triggered is not the same as a short squeeze. Stop hunting occurs as a quick spike. Not something that happens over a period of a few days. Remember Volkswagon last year or early this year? Front month crude earlier this year?

2. No large sane options trader trades deltas. They're either delta hedged, or they only care about what happens a few months from now. The two largest types of options traders (pick underlying instrument) are market makers and big banks. MMs are delta hedged. Banks don't care about day to day price moves.

Quoting gammase1
Of course short squeezes occur in the spot market as large numbers of stops are triggered, which exerts more upward pressure and momentum on the underlying price.
The very fact that stops, and option barriers, are often clustered at or just above key areas of resistance (something which cannot be denied) would logically suggest that additional buying pressure would ensue, should price breach these aforementioned areas.

The additional flurry of buy orders that inevitably occurs - as weak and existing shorts are hurriedly covered (to avoid greater...
  • #3,417
  • Edited 8:41am Oct 18, 2009 8:21am | Edited 8:41am
Quoting qweabc
1. Stops getting triggered is not the same as a short squeeze. Stop hunting occurs as a quick spike. Not something that happens over a period of a few days. Remember Volkswagon last year or early this year? Front month crude earlier this year?

2. No large sane options trader trades deltas. They're either delta hedged, or they only care about what happens a few months from now. The two largest types of options traders (pick underlying instrument) are market makers and big banks. MMs are delta hedged. Banks don't care about day to day price moves....
I was giving a definition of the term "short squeeze" and how it applies to, and is used in, the FX market, the mechanics of which differ from how the term applies to other asset classes. The VW squeeze was one of the most vicious short-squeezes that I have seen and it caused severe pain, no doubt there.

On your second point, ALL sane option traders, particularly market-makers, will trade their delta position continuously, which they will be extremely happy about doing if they are long gamma.

I was an options market-maker for a large bank for many years and the delta risk of the option would obviously be hedged at the outset, either with our spot desk or the counterparty on the option, if they were an interbank player, hedge fund or a largish correspondent bank.

This option would then sit with the bucket of live trades for that currency pair in the relevant trading book. However, within minutes of the option being executed, as spot moves, the delta of that option immediately chages, meaning the deal would need to be re-hedged, through either increasing or reducing the original delta hedge. If the bank is long the option (long gamma in terms of vanilla options), then this re-hedging works out in their favour, as and when the delta positions are constantly adjusted.

When major players are trading options, they are more often than not trading spot moves, but instead are trading vol (vega). Major banks care intently about their day-to-day delta positions, across all maturities, believe me on this fact, as their profit is booked from the vol spread they applied to the transaction at the outset. They wouldn't dream of leaving their potential profits for the year at the mercy of adverse moves in spot.

In terms of barrier options, when barriers are breached, the option writer and buyer will be presented with a jump in their delta positions, as previous hedges, in the case of knock-out options, would need to quickly be unwound, as close to the breach level as possible, so to prevent any nasty slippages affecting P&L.
  • #3,418
  • Oct 18, 2009 9:05am Oct 18, 2009 9:05am
Quoting herzog21
i may be a newbie here but my understanding is all these should be left for 'interactive trading' subforum. here we share our trades and reasons for taking them as well as discuss what could be improved. so fellas, let's keep strictly to that.

no more 'intelligent' explanations please?
hi herzog, it quite fine actually. There are many posters in this forum but not many of them are traders. Paul is a senior trader with vast knowledge that I look up to. So I welcome his views here greatly.
And matter of fact I welcome anyone who is trying to learn/share their trade ideas, yourself included. I was not happy with pakitrader's post as he is a newbie that had been posting conflicting posts every day with no clear cut idea of how he actually needs. He had been doing so in the Cable Thread the whole of last week & the previous week posting far too many conflicting views.
I don't mind really if he has conflicting ideas of his own, but I really don't need someone who is completely new to trading being second to clueless to come in my thread and start giving advises. I don't need that, as I'm sure the good people who does browse this thread to learn won't want it either.
I have no problems with newbies being here, anyone can browse thru the pages and see that I respect everyone's views, except those who are clueless, but pretends not to be, because we are all here to learn, one way or the other. Myself included.
Thank You
  • #3,419
  • Oct 18, 2009 9:14am Oct 18, 2009 9:14am
Quoting gammase1
Azim is a good friend of mine who actively encourages me to post on this thread. It is Sunday, the market is closed, so I deem that such discussion is healthy and does not occupy too much space.

However, if Azim thinks otherwise, then I shall respect his wishes, given that he, not you, is the owner of the thread, and not make any further posts. If you think otherwise, then simply do not read the offending contributions.

Good luck.

Hey paul, your posts are top in my books. You will have to stick around here I'm afraid

Have a good one brother!
Thank You
  • #3,420
  • Oct 18, 2009 9:30am Oct 18, 2009 9:30am
Quoting stewrigh
Hi Azim,

Ok, haven't posted here for a while - been trading lol......This is my current view of Cable tho....

FLAT ---- Don't like current PA and can't bring myself to buy either the pound or Dollar - they are both basket cases IMHO....

I think it'll range for possibly an extended period so I may just trade the range between the S/r drawn on the chart in orange and green.

Attachment
Stew..

Good to see you back brother! You've been missed. I agree with your assessment of cable as well.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
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