FXCM/DailyFX Signals and Strategies

As Jamie Saettele puts it "The AUDUSD is a beast and keeps trucking higher." Here's his elliot wave analysis:

The pair has slightly exceeded the midline of its channel and traded to a new 2009 high again today. Levels that I suggested one watch were .9200, .9270, and .9325 (these are former support levels from 2008). These levels make a large zone where a reversal could occur. The pair has entered that zone today so interest is piqued. What is interesting as well is that price has now touched and slightly exceeded the line extended from the top of wave A and the June high. RSI (14 day) is above 74 but not as high as it was at that June high, when it was above 75 (divergence still exists).

http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/...1509techs4.jpg

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Hi, Jason. Hope you don't mind my asking you a question in this thread.

I'm wondering if there's anyone manning your user support forum. I see many many questions posted there from months ago that have never received a reply. I asked a question in a new thread there almost a week ago and it hasn't even been posted, let alone replied to. What's up with that?

Don't mind at all. Can you let me know the link to the post and I'll make sure it is addressed asap.

Jason

I can't. I started a new thread to ask a question about closing multiple open positions simultaneously and it hasn't been moderated (posted) yet. I have the same user name...opie999.

Understand completely. Will have this taken care of.

Jason

Great. I appreciate it, Jason.

I hope Helene or Thomas can take a little extra time to answer some of the questions from other users that have gone un-replied to for weeks and months on end.

I will make sure of this. Thanks for bringing it to my attention.

-Jason

For everyone else, please feel free to post any general FXCM questions even if it's not related to DailyFX or the signals. I don't mind answering them along with the posts about the market.

And for my last post before the weekend, we'll take a look at next week's economic highlights written up by Terri Belkas of DailyFX. Some important UK events lined up that could make the continuation of today's pound rebound even more interesting in the week ahead. Until next week...

• US Housing Starts, Building Permits (SEP) – October 20, 8:30 ET
US housing starts and building permits are projected to have risen for the second straight month in September to 10-month highs, with starts anticipated to hit 610,000 from 598,000 while permits may rise to 590,000 from 580,000. While the unemployment rate is still in the process of rising, the federal government’s tax credit for first-time home buyers of up to $8,000 is likely to remain supportive of demand through the end of the year. However, if the program expires as planned on December 1, the growth we’ve started to see in the housing sector could start to wane.

• Bank of Canada Rate Decision – October 20, 9:00 ET
The Canadian dollar could see a pickup in volatility on Thursday at 9:00 ET as the Bank of Canada is expected to leave rates unchanged at 0.25 percent once again. After the Bank left rates unchanged on September 10, they said that they would maintain a neutral stance through June 2010, and the rest of the statement was relatively optimistic as the Bank said “GDP growth in the second half of 2009 could be stronger than…projected in July.” However, they also indicated that the Canadian dollar’s strength remained a threat to not only growth, but the return of inflation back to target. Overall, indications that the Bank still sees downside risks for inflation could weigh on the Canadian dollar, but as we’ve seen in the past, the currency is more responsive to changes in the economic outlook.

• Bank of England Meeting Minutes – October 21, 4:30 ET
The minutes from the BOE’s October meeting will be released on Wednesday, and while we already that they left rates unchanged at 0.50 percent and made no changes to their quantitative easing program, there are a variety of potential comments that could impact the British pound. First, the vote count is likely to show the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members were unanimously in favor of neutral policy for both the Bank Rate and the Asset Purchase Facility (APF), but any dovish deviation in this would trigger an immediate pullback in the British pound. The other possible trigger pertains to outlooks for growth and inflation, particularly upgrades or downgrades from previous forecasts, as this would lead traders to shift their expectations for interest rate decisions in 2010, with Credit Suisse overnight index swaps currently pricing in 86 basis points worth of rate hikes by the BOE over the next 12 months.

• UK Gross Domestic Product (3Q A) – October 23, 4:30 ET
Has the UK finally started to emerge from recession? Traders will get a better official sense on Friday as the advance reading of Q3 GDP will be released. The quarterly rate is projected to rise for the first time since Q1 2008 by 0.2 percent, while the annual rate is anticipated to edge up to -4.6 percent from a record low of -5.5 percent. Overall, there are some upside risks for this report, as the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for the services sector held above 50 in July, August, and September, indicating an expansion in activity. On the other hand, PMI for the manufacturing sector edged above 50 in July, only to drift down to 49.5 by September. All told, any positive quarterly GDP result would likely yield a very strong reaction from the British pound, but if the figure continues to signal a contraction in the UK economy, the currency could drop sharply on speculation that the BOE will have no choice but to expand their quantitative easing program later in the year.

• US NAR Existing Home Sales (SEP) – October 23, 10:00 ET
The National Association of Realtors’ index of existing home sales is expected to have risen 5.9 percent for the month of September to an annual rate of 5.4 million, the highest in just over two years. Other factors to keep in mind are supply levels and median prices, both of which have fallen steadily to 8.5 months and $177,700, respectively. As with housing starts and building permits, the federal government’s tax credit for first-time home buyers of up to $8,000 is likely to remain supportive of demand through the end of the year. However, if the program expires as planned on December 1, the growth we’ve started to see in the housing sector could start to wane.

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Br...715504163.html

Last post I promise...I just had to give an update on this.

The DailyFX website is being taken down around 6pm and the new site should be up by Saturday. So check www.DailyFX.com this weekend for the new and improved website!!!

The new DailyFX website has been launched. Take a minute to look around. If you have any feedback, we have a feedback submission HERE or just post a message on the thread. And feel free to tell us what you don't like about it or if you have trouble finding something. Overall, the page is a lot cleaner and easier to naviagate. I will highlight some of the new features during the week along with the market analysis posts. Here's a screenshot of the home page.

http://img198.imageshack.us/img198/2464/newdailyfx.jpg

It looks like CAD bulls were disappointed with the Bank of Canada announcement causing CAD to sell off. A drop in oil prices and the US stock market is not helping either. Here is a line taken from the BOC announcement on their outlook for interest rates:

Conditional on the outlook for inflation, the target overnight rate can be expected to remain at its current level until the end of the second quarter of 2010 in order to achieve the inflation target.
http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/fixed-dates/2009/rate_201009.html

The next major event for the CAD is Retail Sales on Thursday. DailyFX will be hosting a live trading room during the announcement. You can access the trading room here.

Following up on the previous USD/CAD post, Jamie Saettele says the USD/CAD trend has changed from downtrend to uptrend based on his Elliott Wave analysis.

After forming a low near a Fibonacci extension, the USDCAD rally has accelerated. The push above 1.0435 signals a trend change. Dips should be bought.

http://www.dailyfx.com/export/story-...usdcad1017.gif

Here's a new video to go along with DailyFX re-launch. Video of the new features in DailyFX. I'll be covering some of them in more detail throughout the next two weeks. Link to video

The EUR/USD is testing 1.5000; however, there's not a whole lot of economic data on the docket today. The Beige Book comes out today at 2pm ET and there are 3 FOMC members scheduled to speak today. Only two of the speakers are voting members of the FOMC this year, so I would pay attention to Jefrey Lacker and Daniel Tarullo whereas Eric Rosengren is a non-voting member.

SSI: The SSI data on DailyFX Plus is currently not updating due to changes with the DailyFX re-launch, but we are working to get it updated asap. Until then, DailyFX analysts will be mentioning SSI highlights more frequently on the forex stream to compensate for the twice a day posting being down. Here is where you can find the Forex Stream http://forexstream.dailyfx.com/

And to wrap things up, a chart of EUR/USD steady march towards 1.5000 for the month of October...

http://img196.imageshack.us/img196/107/eurusda.jpg

Here's the first highlight of the DailyFX re-launch. New features have been added so I'm going to outline some of the improvements I find useful/important. Today I'm going over three items in the Forex Market News section of the website:


1. Top Movers

This is a useful tool to find out which pairs have seen the biggest movement for the day, month, and week.

http://img194.imageshack.us/img194/6498/topmovers.jpg

How to find Top Movers? In the navigation bar at the top of DailyFX, goto Forex Market News > Market News Home. Once you are on the Market News Home page, scroll to the bottom of the page to find the Top Movers.



2. Weekly Columns and Special Reports

On the old DailyFX page, all of the links were dumped on the main page and you didn't know the schedule for when the reports were updated. Not anymore...we have tagged each article letting you know what day the report is scheduled to update. See below, I circled the dates in red.

http://img8.imageshack.us/img8/2651/...andspecial.jpg

How to find Weekly Columns and Special Reports? Navigate to Forex Market News > Weekly Columns and Special Reports.



3. TV and Video

Lastly, a section for video and TV has been added to DailyFX. Our video updates should become more extensive in the upcoming months. Below is an image from the site, and I circled the navigation bar where to find the TV and Video section.

http://img340.imageshack.us/img340/7358/videoandtv.jpg

USD/JPY bounced off of 88.00 last week and Jamie Saettele's Elliott Wave Analysis sees 92.80 as a target. Looks like a channel forming on the 60 minute chart. Here is the chart from DailyFX:

http://www.dailyfx.com/export/story-...echs1021-1.gif

http://www.dailyfx.com/technical_analysis/elliott_wave/

Today I will go over new features in the Technical Analysis section of the re-launched DailyFX website. I find the DailyFX articles are more biased towards technicals, so if that's your thing, then this is your section. You can find the Technical Analysis button at the top of DailyFX in the orange navigation bar, second button from the left side.


1. Technicals Home

The main page of the Technical Analysis section gives you an overview of important technical levels for each currency pair as well as a trend and current volatility indication.

http://img25.imageshack.us/img25/349...nicalshome.jpg

2. Candlestick Summary

Candlestick summary is a new feature on DailyFX that identifies developing candlestick patterns. The updates tend to be for patterns developing on longer time frame charts such as daily and weekly charts.

http://img251.imageshack.us/img251/6...icksummary.jpg

3. Elliott Wave Analysis

We have added an entire section devoted to Elliott Wave Analysis with a table listing hte current bias for the major currencies. If you click on the currency pair, the appropriate chart and analysis will appear below. This is where I found the Elliott Wave table from the previous post.

http://img5.imageshack.us/img5/6914/elliottwave.jpg

Check out the latest SSI positioning from this afternoon. EUR/USD and USD/CHF getting interesting. Traders betting that 1.50 for EUR/USD and 1.00 for USD/CHF are the respective top and bottom. Nothing like some big round numbers to attract the bottom pickers. As they say, the trend is your friend...

http://img406.imageshack.us/img406/7157/ssi.jpg

The lows in USD/CHF at the height of the panic earlier this year found a bottom around 0.9900 (spiking as low as 0.9644 on Mar. 16). No comments from the Swiss National Bank on the CHF strength unlike the ECB which has been commenting on dollar weakness with increasing frequency.

Shocking numbers for UK 3rd quarter GDP this morning. GBP/USD fell nearly 300 pips within 2 hours. It blew through every support level DailyFX has listed on the site. With such negative news, it may be time to start taking a look at GBP/AUD and GBP/CAD again.

http://img260.imageshack.us/img260/3100/gbpusd.jpg