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FX-Petra Trade Journal

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Oct 1, 2009 5:38pm Sep 28, 2009 1:44pm | Edited Oct 1, 2009 5:38pm

FX-Petra’s Trade Journal



I am starting this journal for me. If others read it and can take anything useful from it, that is ok with me. I know that the great majority of posters here at the factory strongly disagree with my market views. I am not starting this journal to argue with you! If you disagree, then please just leave me to my own demise.

I will respond to reasonable questions. Please keep in mind that while my system is pretty easy to employ, the reasoning and mathematics behind it are not. Fully explaining my system and the math that it took to devise it is not something that I have the time or patience to do. If you are very mathematically inclined, or have master’s level or higher formal training, then I welcome your thoughtful questions. I am a very humble person and am not trying to be arrogant in any way--- but I just do not have the time teach a course in predictive statistics.

This system will eventually fail. I believe I have devised a way that gives me a fighting CHANCE to still be alive after 10,000 trades. If I reach that level I will have made a large enough lump sum of cash to live my life in the manner of my choosing.

So here goes:

1) Market Entry --- Random, but not suicidal. I am not trying to predict where the market is going, but I am also not stupid enough to step in front of a freight train. If a big move is underway, I will wait until things settle down until I make a new entry.

2) Currency--- Eur/Usd (low spread cost)


3) Market Exit --- 22 pip stop loss (from entry), 25 pips take profit (from entry)

4) Daily Goal--- 2 winning trades per day

5) Starting Pip size--- .10 pip per 12,000 of equity

6) Biggest pip size --- 204.8

7) Maximum trade sequence --- 12 trades (12 losses in a row will end this experiment and result in a total drawdown of $9,213.)
  • #2
  • Sep 28, 2009 1:48pm Sep 28, 2009 1:48pm
Let me say again that I WILL hit a sequence of 11 losses in a row if I trade long enough. How many trades until I hit that sequence? Well I cannot be 100% confident. However, for my purposes a 99.99% confidence level will do. Therefore:

NT= log(1-DC)/ log (1-P)

NT= log(1-.9999)/ log (1-.9997636)

NT= 38,962


I can be 99.99% confident that I will hit at least 1 streak of 11 in a row before I reach 38,962 trades. Sounds pretty good, right? Not so fast. If I use a 50% confidence level that number drops to 2,932. So where will my experiment fall under the curve? There is no way to know. But I know I have a fighting chance to turn my 7k into a retirement sum in 3-5 years. I am taking my shot.
  • #3
  • Sep 28, 2009 1:51pm Sep 28, 2009 1:51pm
Day 1 was a breeze. 2 entries, both hit TP befor SL.

Short at 1.4655, TP at 1.4630

Long At 1.4628, TP at 1.4653

2 succesful trades--- out for the day.
  • #4
  • Sep 29, 2009 8:57am Sep 29, 2009 8:57am
1st win hit during Asian session--- Level 2 order

2nd win hit during US session--- Level 2 order

Out for the day.
  • #5
  • Sep 30, 2009 7:55am Sep 30, 2009 7:55am
1 series complete during Asian session-- Level 3

1 series complete during US session-- Level 1

Out for the day.
  • #6
  • Sep 30, 2009 10:18am Sep 30, 2009 10:18am
Any particular time or pattern that you use to enter your positions? Will be interested to see your weekly results.
  • #7
  • Oct 1, 2009 7:46am Oct 1, 2009 7:46am
Quoting FX-Petra
[font=Times New Roman][size=3]Let me say again that I WILL hit a sequence of 11 losses in a row if I trade long enough....
The probabilities in your calculation seem a little odd - where does the .9997636 come from? In a random market, the probability to loose a 25/22 trade should be 56%, or? In this case I calculate a 99.99% confidence level to go broke before 5417 days, and a 50% confidence level to go broke before 407 days are over. m.
  • #8
  • Oct 1, 2009 10:12am Oct 1, 2009 10:12am
2 trades successful-- both in US session-- both level 1 trades.

Out for the day.
  • #9
  • Oct 1, 2009 5:53pm Oct 1, 2009 5:53pm
Quoting mfeldt
The probabilities in your calculation seem a little odd - where does the .9997636 come from? In a random market, the probability to loose a 25/22 trade should be 56%, or? In this case I calculate a 99.99% confidence level to go broke before 5417 days, and a 50% confidence level to go broke before 407 days are over. m.
Sorry, I used the wrong sequence of numbers (I have a lot of them on my desk, lol).

NT= log(1-DC) / log(1-P)

NT= number of trades
DC= Degrees of certainty (.9999)
P= probability of 12 losing trades in a row ((25/47)^12)= 5.128634960620557320335891201874e-4

NT= log(.0001) / log (.99948701365039379442679664108798)

NT= 17,950
  • #10
  • Oct 2, 2009 2:34am Oct 2, 2009 2:34am
I still recommend to look at the probabilities another way: So you have a loosing chance on the first day of ~ 5E-4, i.e. a surviving chance of ~99.9487%. The chance to survive 2 days in a row is then 0.999487**2 = 99.897%. Continuing this, you'll see that the chance of actually surviving 17000 days is 0.999487**17000 = 0.01%! Actually, half of the experiments like this will be dead after 1350 days. Never mind, but I hope you do not really bet your pension on this experiment! m.
  • #11
  • Oct 6, 2009 1:14pm Oct 6, 2009 1:14pm
Starting equity-- $1,000 usd (the rest of my equity is sitting in a money market)

Ending Equity-- $1,041.27

Longest Sequence-- 4 trades

Off to a solid (and unspecatular) start. Let's see what week # 2 yeilds.
  • #12
  • Oct 9, 2009 9:45am Oct 9, 2009 9:45am
Project starting balance= $1,000

Week starting balance = $1,041.27

Week ending balance = $1,130.09

Longest trade sequence = 7 trades

Good week. The 7 trade sequence really acclerated my earnings. We'll see if I can survive another week.
  • #13
  • Oct 16, 2009 9:24am Oct 16, 2009 9:24am
Project Starting Balance= $1000

Week Starting Balance= $1,130.09

Ending Balance= $1,180.40

Longest trade sequence= 4 trades

Another solid week. Hit 4 trade sequence 3 times, but did not go any further than that. At present, profit targets are well within the prameters my system has projected. I'll try again next week!
  • #14
  • Oct 16, 2009 10:03am Oct 16, 2009 10:03am
Good luck FX-Petra. I'll drop in from time to time and watch your progress.
  • #15
  • Oct 16, 2009 10:03am Oct 16, 2009 10:03am
Quoting FX-Petra
Project Starting Balance= $1000

Week Starting Balance= $1,130.09

Ending Balance= $1,180.40

Longest trade sequence= 4 trades

Another solid week. Hit 4 trade sequence 3 times, but did not go any further than that. At present, profit targets are well within the prameters my system has projected. I'll try again next week!
  • #16
  • Oct 23, 2009 9:37am Oct 23, 2009 9:37am
Project Start Balance= 1000.00

Week starting Balance = 1,180.40

Week Ending Balance = 1,230.03

Longest Trade Sequence = 6 Trades

Another solid week. Had a chance on the 6 trade sequence to really ramp up earnings... but it did not work out. Total number of trades since the project began is 94. Next week's end will also be month's end. I am intrested to see what my first month's results will be. My biggest problem so far has been boredom. This system is really boring. However, entertainment value does not pay the bills, so I guess I should shut my pie hole and stick to the system--- because so far, so good!
  • #17
  • Nov 2, 2009 10:39am Nov 2, 2009 10:39am
Project start = $1,000

Week start = $1,230.33

Week Ending= $ 1,301.60

Longest trade sequence = 8 trades


Nothing boring about this week. I had very few winning trades. Every sequence went 5 trades or more! Had I been trading with fixed lots, I would have been clobbered. The 8 trade sequence had me sweating, but the system held true and I ended up with nice profit for the week. We'll see how next week goes!
  • #18
  • Nov 6, 2009 10:01am Nov 6, 2009 10:01am
Project start balance= $1,000

Week start balance = $1,301.60

Week end balance = $1,425.20

Longest Trade Sequence = 6 trades

Well, it was my best week yet from a dollar standpoint. I let the 6 trade sequence run a little past the 25 pip point and that really jacked up my earnings. Last couple of weeks have been hard, with a lot more losing trades than winning ones. Hopefully, I can have a nice boring week next week with trade sequences ending at low levels.
  • #19
  • Nov 7, 2009 10:27am Nov 7, 2009 10:27am
I am trying this random entry experiment on a sub-account. As I look back over the last six weeks, I have noticed a troubling pattern. Occasionally, when I take a random entry, I will think to myself "I would NEVER take this trade with my regular discesionary trading account!". Whenever this type of trade occurs, it almost always a winner! This vexes me, and I really cannot explain it, except to say that the forex market does a great job of exploting our preconcieved notions of what the market "should" do. I will continue to take note and track this strange occurance.... maybe after a few months I will be able to draw some more reliable conclusions.
  • #20
  • Nov 13, 2009 9:14am Nov 13, 2009 9:14am
Project Start Bal = $1,000

Week Start Bal = $1,425.20

Week End Bal = $1,511.73

Longest Trade Sequence = 5 Trades

Fairly easy week. Euro did a lot of ranging most of the week. Next week I will trade, but that will be all for Nov. I will not trade the week of Thanksgiving. My equity continues to grow. I am staying on my course!
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