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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #203,481
  • Oct 15, 2009 4:14am Oct 15, 2009 4:14am
Quoting Piters
Then you may be interested in my charts I posted 18h ago..

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=153

cheers!

p
You massive downmove (the red line) is too optimistic for me. I don't think it will ever break 1000 any time soon. However, I agree your first pullback (purple arrow).. that seems to be the most logical pullback considering the financial background today.. Retest 1000 is also fair but I don't think any lower than that.. Let's see how the PA @ ~1000
  • #203,482
  • Oct 15, 2009 4:15am Oct 15, 2009 4:15am
and this is GU..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: guh1.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #203,483
  • Oct 15, 2009 4:16am Oct 15, 2009 4:16am
Quoting ukdaytrader
Hey man. I'm also short Euro and Gold. No position on GY now. The wall of fear has taken over. lol. BUT, I would not be surprised to see GY climb much higher very quickly.

What time is GS report?
Quote
Goldman Sachs will report results at approximately 7:30 am. A conference call to discuss the firm's results, outlook and related matters, will be held at 9:00 am. Stay tuned to StreetInsider.com's Earnings section to see our analysis of the highly-anticipated quarterly results within seconds of their release.

http://www.streetinsider.com/Insider...t/5017364.html
  • #203,484
  • Oct 15, 2009 4:17am Oct 15, 2009 4:17am
now if that speech didn't convince you to keep trading, then i don't know what will!

Bejevina, i gotta email you after i do a few bad trades, just for moral boost!

Quoting Beljevina
It's almost like there's a disconnect between your written and theory that you put on the board here (your analysis seems good) and then how you end up trading. One of my major mental blocks still is reversing/dumping out of a position when the trend has changed - it's tough to give money to the institutional cybermonkeys, but you have to recall what happens if you don't. Yes, trend can be many ways depending on timeframe, but realtime PA is the ultimate trading trend indicator. Perhaps you should trade more safely with smaller lots, or look at...
  • #203,485
  • Oct 15, 2009 4:17am Oct 15, 2009 4:17am
Quoting A-speculator
I don't see any valid short setup yet, why short now? You are fighting the current trend.. IMO
I'm short cause of an excessive move up....and i'm waiting for a pullback around 1.6050...
i'll post a chart to show you how i see this but my file is too big i need to find another way to post a chart
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #203,486
  • Oct 15, 2009 4:18am Oct 15, 2009 4:18am
Quoting Piters
GOLD is down,
EUR down, ... [im short in both]

GBPUSD:

confluence: Neckline TEST, Daily 50ema (im 50ema trader); Fibo 50, Daily range = 233pips in GU. (average = 180)

However, she can go even higher, but not much more... time for pull back

[Chart]
You're probably right...

maybe I'm too cautious, but I'm waiting until she breaks below 1.6190 to go short.
  • #203,487
  • Oct 15, 2009 4:20am Oct 15, 2009 4:20am
Quoting Piters
after 233 pips daily range on GBPUSD.. (average = 173)

when GOLD and EUR are heading down..??

sure,.. why not..!!! we may even go to 2.1163 today...

(small joke) ...
Don't forget, it can also break that neckline and then range above or on the neckline. Whatever it is, I think shorting that pair carry a bigger risk than waiting for the pullback/breakout and go long. How risky the position is depend on the experience of the trader, i guess risky position can only be apply if one don't know what they are doing and only following others.. I think you will be ok.. GL bro..
  • #203,488
  • Oct 15, 2009 4:22am Oct 15, 2009 4:22am
Quoting A-speculator
You massive downmove (the red line) is too optimistic for me. I don't think it will ever break 1000 any time soon. However, I agree your first pullback (purple arrow).. that seems to be the most logical pullback considering the financial background today.. Retest 1000 is also fair but I don't think any lower than that.. Let's see how the PA @ ~1000
everything is possible mate in this game... what you saw is only a "normal" test of the right shoulder.. very common in TA when we trade HEad and Shoulders..

Im not fundie, but I know one thing.. one extreme, brings you another one...
What im trying to say is, that with such big move in GOLD.. we cannot expect a retrace within F23 or F382...

Look all that BIG UPTREND.. on weekly, no retrace Whatsoever.. Knowing what kind of Bastards they are.. when all are in GOLD long.. they will short GOLD down to 870 ... (im just guessing)

Another thing is with EUR, GBP or DX if you will.. same story... the moment USD find his bottom... the buying proccess is going to be HUGE.. Cheap Dollar..

That is Why i posted 3 different scenarios, as any of them can play anytime...

Have a look that HUGE VOLUME DEVERGENCE on GOLD mate.. (the second chart)
  • #203,489
  • Oct 15, 2009 4:26am Oct 15, 2009 4:26am
Quoting ewokuk
i WAS in the right direction, short on gu and gj. still didnt stop me getting killed.

plus trend is subjective. you can go from 5min to weekly and have 5 tf in uptrend and 5 tf in downtrend. i decided to go with 1h/4h/daily and still got screwed. Then went long on GJ, got screwed when it tanked from 143.20 back to 141.50, closed for 100 pip loss then watch it fly up from the moment i close it to 145. 100 pip loss instead of 200+ pip profit.

dont have the money to throw at it anymore, im sick of it doing the exact opposite no matter what timeframe...
Go away, lick your wounds and you'll be able to come back stronger. I like the way you think most of the time, but we should not get lost in any fundamental beliefs, (or Auslanco thread beliefs). It's very easy to read this thread and be certain GY is heading to 120, but we should always remember, others' analysis is massively open to question.

Try pure technical trading for a while using the Auslanco system on 4hr and 1hr charts.

Good luck. PM me if I can help.
  • #203,490
  • Oct 15, 2009 4:30am Oct 15, 2009 4:30am
payday draw comes friday yahhhhhh
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #203,491
  • Oct 15, 2009 4:32am Oct 15, 2009 4:32am
Quoting OrionsWay
payday draw comes friday yahhhhhh

this is what bear did to them today..stop sellin
Attached Image
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #203,492
  • Oct 15, 2009 4:32am Oct 15, 2009 4:32am
Quoting Piters
everything is possible mate in this game... what you saw is only a "normal" test of the right shoulder.. very common in TA when we trade HEad and Shoulders..

Im not fundie, but I know one thing.. one extreme, brings you another one...
What im trying to say is, that with such big move in GOLD.. we cannot expect a retrace within F23 or F382...

Look all that BIG UPTREND.. on weekly, no retrace Whatsoever.. Knowing what kind of Bastards they are.. when all are in GOLD long.. they will short GOLD down to 870 ... (im just guessing)

Another thing...
Well mate.. as long as there are demand, you cannot simply assume pullback as massive as that, maybe one day it will come when the situation fits but definitely not in this short term. Look at aussie, a lot of people try to catch the top, what had happened? There are no retracement in weekly, it keep moving up..
  • #203,493
  • Oct 15, 2009 4:36am Oct 15, 2009 4:36am
Quoting donfriday
this is what bear did to them today..stop sellin

have to post this for RG and all non believers LOL
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #203,494
  • Oct 15, 2009 4:36am Oct 15, 2009 4:36am
Quoting A-speculator
Well mate.. as long as there are demand, you cannot simply assume pullback as massive as that, maybe one day it will come when the situation fits but definite not in this short term. Look at aussie, a lot of people try to catch the top, what had happened? There are no retracement in weekly, it keep moving up..
YES, you are right.. AUSSIE being Crazy together with GOLD.. I agree.. I shorted few times last and this week, and get only 30-40p..
I give up from shorting..

However.. Im not ruling out any of three posible scenarios in Gold retracements..

Im happy to GO LONG from any of.. .. for now Im short from 1063.. shorted just below DPP..

current price is 1052.00..
  • #203,495
  • Oct 15, 2009 4:37am Oct 15, 2009 4:37am
Quoting Beljevina
It's almost like there's a disconnect between your written and theory that you put on the board here (your analysis seems good) and then how you end up trading. One of my major mental blocks still is reversing/dumping out of a position when the trend has changed - it's tough to give money to the institutional cybermonkeys, but you have to recall what happens if you don't. Yes, trend can be many ways depending on timeframe, but realtime PA is the ultimate trading trend indicator. Perhaps you should trade more safely with smaller lots, or look at...
even when looking at a trend, the problem is working out when a pullback is just a retrace or the start of a new trend.

shorted gu at 1.6090 after it dropped from 1.6115 resistance area earlier. that worked well then. GU should have fallen off a cliff and be below 1.55 by now, i cant find one single reason of any kind for it to have gnoe flying up. i cant trade BS that make no sense.
  • #203,496
  • Oct 15, 2009 4:39am Oct 15, 2009 4:39am
Looks like there is no stopping the beast till NY comes online and reverses this.

Lots of people are in bed now. will be surprised to see this move up when they switch on their monitors.
  • #203,497
  • Oct 15, 2009 4:39am Oct 15, 2009 4:39am
Quoting Piters
after 233 pips daily range on GBPUSD.. (average = 173)

when GOLD and EUR are heading down..??

sure,.. why not..!!! we may even go to 2.1163 today...

(small joke) ...
There's no rationale in this market, there are times when someone buys, everyone buys.. at that time, no any TA valid.. (just my assumption). Difference between the winner and the loser are based on the experience in the market.. IMHO
  • #203,498
  • Oct 15, 2009 4:41am Oct 15, 2009 4:41am
covered a lil of chunnel shorts, more to come me thinks
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #203,499
  • Oct 15, 2009 4:42am Oct 15, 2009 4:42am
the shorters pips on my chart not in my account
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 10-15-2009 1-30-25 AM.png Size: 27 KB
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #203,500
  • Oct 15, 2009 4:42am Oct 15, 2009 4:42am
Quoting ukdaytrader
Go away, lick your wounds and you'll be able to come back stronger. I like the way you think most of the time, but we should not get lost in any fundamental beliefs, (or Auslanco thread beliefs). It's very easy to read this thread and be certain GY is heading to 120, but we should always remember, others' analysis is massively open to question.

Try pure technical trading for a while using the Auslanco system on 4hr and 1hr charts.

Good luck. PM me if I can help.
i have 2 weeks off work from next week so i was hoping for a good week this week so i could make some tasty progress when i get to trade all day for 2 weeks.....not to get wiped out again leaving very little to use. but it doesnt surprise me.
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