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  • #61
  • Oct 12, 2009 6:33pm Oct 12, 2009 6:33pm
Quoting Cbh123
I'm sorry but this is incorrect. Of course most traders lose, but that doesn't mean anyone who doesn't use your strategy loses. I know of a profitable trader who gets in at the START of each new trend and not on bounces/retraces. Of course he is faked out sometimes, but he is great at holding on to his winners so it more than makes up for occasional small losses.
His definition of start of the trend is likely the same as what we just said, so there is no need to argue, getting in as soon as possible and letting it ride is the way to do it!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #62
  • Oct 12, 2009 6:43pm Oct 12, 2009 6:43pm
great post again. if one was to summarize, "this game requires balls of ssteel"

Quoting Chicky
It may sound funny, but true.

Read this post carefully before calling me crazy.

You may also like to refer to what most successful traders always advocate - unfortunately those words mostly remain unheard. Therefore decided to present their thoughts in the manner that may attract some attention.

No, I have not made millions or even thousands in forex business. This is your option to continue reading this post. You won't be the only one leaving this post unfinished at this point.

I am not going to give you any fancy method, but will ask few...
Its all in the mind.
  • #63
  • Oct 12, 2009 6:50pm Oct 12, 2009 6:50pm
Quoting 5abi
great post again. if one was to summarize, "this game requires balls of ssteel"
How can you be sure of this, have you felt the testicles of a profitable trader before?
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #64
  • Oct 12, 2009 7:00pm Oct 12, 2009 7:00pm
lol, you just jumped up at mine like it leaves no doubt in my mind you was castrated. get over it now, they are gone

Quoting Leonlorenzo
How can you be sure of this, have you felt the testicles of a profitable trader before?
Its all in the mind.
  • #65
  • Edited 7:20pm Oct 12, 2009 7:10pm | Edited 7:20pm
Quoting 5abi
lol, you just jumped up at mine like it leaves no doubt in my mind you was castrated. get over it now, they are gone
I'm not sure what you're saying, or trying to.

I don't think most of the people here even have a clue about the requirements of profitable trading. I'm starting to find it quite sad. Most, including my self in the past, are naive when they start out in any field. It's the ones who speak(or type) like they have some kind of idea, yet obviously don't, that make me cringe.

EDIT: PS. I don't intend to proceed with a pissing match here, just stating my views and moving on.
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #66
  • Oct 12, 2009 7:21pm Oct 12, 2009 7:21pm
I did not want to offend you. I just came back to FF after a long hiatus and have not been posting much at all, just browsing thru threads and post- was in kind of a light mood.

Let me ask you this, why do you even care about what others say or think- just focus on your trading to improve it. I read your previous post about the type of people who suuceed at trading. And cant say I disagree with most of it. Yes most of retail traders have no chance at this game- but I have no authority to judge any one else. In all fairness I should only be my own critic.

To Chicky- sorry hijacked your thread...I am out now.

Quoting Leonlorenzo
I'm not sure what you're saying, or trying to.

I don't think most of the people here even have a clue about the requirements of profitable trading. I'm starting to find it quite sad. Everyone is naive when they start out in any field, but its the ones who speak(or type) like they have some kind of idea, yet obviously don't, that make me cringe.
Its all in the mind.
  • #67
  • Oct 12, 2009 7:27pm Oct 12, 2009 7:27pm
Quoting 5abi
I did not want to offend you. I just came back to FF after a long hiatus and have not been posting much at all, just browsing thru threads and post- was in kind of a light mood.

Let me ask you this, why do you even care about what others say or think- just focus on your trading to improve it. I read your previous post about the type of people who suuceed at trading. And cant say I disagree with most of it. Yes most of retail traders have no chance at this game- but I have no authority to judge any one else. In all fairness I should only be my...
Yea, that's fair enough. I'm just sick of the no-point topics, frustration spilled over to my posting obviously.

Have a nice day, sorry for being rude.

Leon
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #68
  • Oct 13, 2009 12:32am Oct 13, 2009 12:32am
Quoting Leonlorenzo

I don't think most of the people here even have a clue about the requirements of profitable trading. I'm starting to find it quite sad. Most, including my self in the past, are naive when they start out in any field. It's the ones who speak(or type) like they have some kind of idea, yet obviously don't, that make me cringe.

EDIT: PS. I don't intend to proceed with a pissing match here, just stating my views and moving on.
Leon. Tell us what you really think about traders here Don't hold back or anything
  • #69
  • Oct 13, 2009 12:33am Oct 13, 2009 12:33am
Quoting Leonlorenzo
Yea, that's fair enough. I'm just sick of the no-point topics, frustration spilled over to my posting obviously.

Have a nice day, sorry for being rude.

Leon
Tuesdays are good days to be rude

Wednesdays are good days to be nice
  • #70
  • Oct 13, 2009 1:01am Oct 13, 2009 1:01am
  •  zykas
  • | Joined Oct 2008 | Status: ... measure thrice, but cut once | 196 Posts
I think I prefer the first post... Others are beginning to digress.
Thanks Chicky for your information. Its helpful
I like the Big Dogs because I trade like them
  • #71
  • Oct 14, 2009 8:03pm Oct 14, 2009 8:03pm
Quoting 5abi
I did not want to offend you. I just came back to FF after a long hiatus and have not been posting much at all, just browsing thru threads and post- was in kind of a light mood.

Let me ask you this, why do you even care about what others say or think- just focus on your trading to improve it. I read your previous post about the type of people who suuceed at trading. And cant say I disagree with most of it. Yes most of retail traders have no chance at this game- but I have no authority to judge any one else. In all fairness I should only be my...
5abi, you rather took care of this thread while I was away. Let me go through some interesting lookiing posts before I start adding my comments.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #72
  • Edited 8:36pm Oct 14, 2009 8:25pm | Edited 8:36pm
I went through some of the above posts. These are my views. I understand not everyone may agree with me and they have all the right to disagree because I coud be very wrong.

1. I don't think there is only one profitable method. Period.

2. A trader is the one who makes a method work or fail.
3. Trading is not a rocket science. It is simple but not easy for variety of reasons.

4. One does not need to identify START of a trend. It is much easier to go along with an existing trend if one's timeframe is big enough (I find daily timeframe the optimum).

5. A good trader tries to understand factors affecting currency prices, keep himself/herself updated, understands how markets behave, tries to know logic behind price patterns, etc. But this is not all, money management and psychological aspects are very important.

6. Just think about this scenario - A trader places a trade in the direction of the current trend without going into technicalities, if sl and tps are reasonable (i.e. they consider daily market fluctuations in number of pips), he/she has more than 50% chance of getting a favorable outcome. I do not understand why people who trade on no less than daily timeframe have to worry about a trend reversal. It does not happen too often and even if it happens, does not happen too easily.

7. It is a trader him/herself that makes the edge ineffective with fear, greed, lack of confidence, over trading, impatience, improper money mangement, inconsistency, ............ etc.

ps. A trader is the sole enemy of him/herself. Like Mark Douglas said "Get your mind right".
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #73
  • Oct 15, 2009 3:08am Oct 15, 2009 3:08am
Quoting Chicky
...1. I don't think there is only one profitable method. Period.

2. A trader is the one who makes a method work or fail....
amen to that! there are probably thousands of strategies out there. we just need to find what fits our style. i've read some forex books where author reveals his strategy. he swears (implies) that his strategy works... but when i tried it, it failed. it's not because the strategy doesn't work, but probably because it doesn't fit my trading personality.

Quoting Chicky
4. One does not need to identify START of a trend. It is much easier to go along with an existing trend if one's timeframe is big enough (I find daily timeframe the optimum).
+1000! i find it easier to just ride an existing trend rather than identifying when's a dip gonna revert back to the original trend. just don't use it with M1 or M5 TFs.

GREAT thread, Chicky! keep it up!
  • #74
  • Edited 4:47am Oct 15, 2009 4:32am | Edited 4:47am
Quoting Knight78
I'd rather just win the lottery and call it a day Get your mind right is great by a great man. Douglas is god
I agree, Douglas is no god, he rather gave some good logical thoughts to short-term retail traders to help them win on balance. Earnings may not be great but with little effort and discipline match what one can get from a small business plus trading has unlimited growth potential.

Nothing is harder than a begining. I was about to quit when was 90% there. But I cannot tell the ultimate outcome of this race which has no finish line.

If someone can do it, everyone stands a chance.

Lottery offers no edge and odds are always against the players, but some people in Australia have been banned from playing lottery becasue they know how to consistently win even in lottery. Authorities say they defeat the purpose of lottery. One of them is a CPA. In early 90's he along with his two colleagues came to the US to win a lottery. They said on landing at the US airport "We do not hope or pray for win because we are sure to win this lottery" . Simple calculation. The accumulated unpaid amount of that lottery grew to $24 million but one could buy all the combinations for just $8 million. They came to buy all combinations. The only odd against them was if three other players also had bought the jackpot number. However, because of some administrative issue, they could not buy 10% of the combinations and therefore they had to hope and pray for a win, but they got it. They by mistake left one series of numbers and bought another series twice.

If you want to play lottery, you will still find some Douglas of lottery. Those Douglases have sacrificed their yesterday for our today.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #75
  • Edited 6:17am Oct 17, 2009 4:19am | Edited 6:17am
No post on this thread in last over 40 hours. It seems no one is interested in making millions trading forex.

I thought this thread title would attract about 10% of total viewers but think people are getting smarter. They can tell the difference between what works and what seems to be the bullsh*t.

Anyway, continuing the discussion from the first post what I do is that:

1. Identify a trend and look for a pullback.

2. See if this pull back gets the PA near to a reasonable support in an up trend (or a reasonably strong resistance in a down trend)

3. Check if Up Trend continuation from this point is likely to yield 100 or more pips and the next support is within the range of 100 piips so that if existing support does not hold the next support will be there within a 100 pip drawdown. (I do not prefer trades involving less than 80 to 100 pips to keep myself away from being caught in spikes and noises)

4. That means if trend continues, it is likely to yield at least 1:1 risk reward.

5. Make sure this is an active session (not Friday after Asia close OR Monday before London open OR time between NY close and Tokyo open OR a bank holiday, etc.)

6. Make sure this is no major news time (from couple of sessions before a major news to next session start). By sessions I mean either Tokyo, London or New York. Next session means London if the current one is Tokyo. I have no regard for the part of Asian session before Tokyo open.

7. Make sure my general understanding of the economic factors and study of commodities, equities and other pairs shows no (or least) signs of probable trend reversal.

8. Identify place for Stop Loss below second support i.e. below both current and the next support below that. (we are considering only long trade opportunities i.e. going with up trend, opposite will be true for short trades).

9. Calculate how many number of lots I should buy that would give me 1% loss on my account if PA hits my stoploss (which is below two supports).

10. Check where should be my Take Profit to get 1% profit on my account balance. If I expect the pa to go higher than that, do not bother about additional profit. I only want my 1%. Good risk:reward ratio is not my edge, my edge is the trend and consistency.

11. If either risk or reward does not equal 1%, I would accept anything between 0.8% to 1%. There may be trades with 0.8% profit and 1% loss or 0.8% loss and 1% profit but no business beyond this range.

12. After everything is set, I enter and put a "Do Not Disturb" tag on my trade. Time tells if I was right or wrong.

13. Repeat.

I would appreciate comments on this simple method. Its advantages and disadvantages or improvements.

ps. No I don't have an EA, also don't believe in one as yet.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #76
  • Oct 17, 2009 9:04am Oct 17, 2009 9:04am
Hi Chicky,

I guess people now days prefer the thread called "Strategy of loosers" (LOL). Just joking.

Yep, the plan is good. "In Trend I Trust", with couple of points I would like to discuss:

1. What time frame are you suggesting to trade? Cause if IMHO to be reasonably sure in the trend continuation one has to trade at least 4hour and higher.

2. How would you judge the strength of support or resistance? You say "reasonably" strong. What would be you criteria?

3. Point 6 makes me wonder - there is always some sort of news announcement. Personally, I ignore the news completely solely relying on the market sentiment on my charts, but also noticed that during the "newsless" days the market doesn't really move very much ala trading between US close and Asian open. So, I like news, but don't pay attention to them, hope that makes sense.

4. Another point I would have added: Do not forget to move SL to BE. Each trader has to be a judge of when to do it in order to give the trade "a chance" in the first place (I guess working with S and R again), but personally I found that it preserves my capital nicely.

  • #77
  • Oct 17, 2009 1:11pm Oct 17, 2009 1:11pm
Fantastic thread Chicky ! Much of you said on losing trades resonates within me... And some of what you said about winning trades.


Quoting Chicky
3. Check if Up Trend continuation from this point is likely to yield 100 or more pips
How on earth do you determine that ? Most of the time I exit after a 20-50 pips gain but I've never been able to catch a 100 pips home run. I can trade retracements, and because the price simply retrace what it has just done it's quite easy to define a profit target but I'm lost when I face a breakout and I close my trade at the first MACD crossover.
  • #78
  • Oct 17, 2009 9:47pm Oct 17, 2009 9:47pm
Quoting Intensity
Fantastic thread Chicky ! Much of you said on losing trades resonates within me... And some of what you said about winning trades.



How on earth do you determine that ? Most of the time I exit after a 20-50 pips gain but I've never been able to catch a 100 pips home run. I can trade retracements, and because the price simply retrace what it has just done it's quite easy to define a profit target but I'm lost when I face a breakout and I close my trade at the first MACD crossover.
I used to do the same. It is easier to trade a retrace, at least one has the idea about the length of the retrace i.e. if move is 100 pip, there may be a retrace of 30/35 pips. This method was profitable but at one point of time, I had to risk 30% of my equity because retrace didn't happen where I expected. Now I go with the trend, it is safer and more profitable.

The best timeframes to judge a trend direction is Monthly + Weekly + Daily. Many people use waves, channels, PPZs, etc. to guess length of next move in the trend direction. I just look at the length of the retrace. If retrace is of 150 pips, the next move has to be more that 150 pips in the direction of the trend if trend continues. It happens or not, I am out with my 100 pips.

In other words I do the same what you are doing but in the direction of the trend. I play retrace of retrace in the direction of the trend not against it. That is safer than going aginst the trend.

I don't use SMAs. EMA, MACD, Sotchastics,etc. however use their foundations or basis. It keeps my mind free.

ps. 10, 20, 30 pip moves are not for me. I round them off.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #79
  • Edited 11:37pm Oct 17, 2009 11:14pm | Edited 11:37pm
Quoting cammomile
Hi Chicky,

I guess people now days prefer the thread called "Strategy of loosers" (LOL). Just joking.

Yep, the plan is good. "In Trend I Trust", with couple of points I would like to discuss:

1. What time frame are you suggesting to trade? Cause if IMHO to be reasonably sure in the trend continuation one has to trade at least 4hour and higher.

2. How would you judge the strength of support or resistance? You say "reasonably" strong. What would be you criteria?

3. Point 6 makes me wonder - there is always some sort of news announcement....
Cammomile, thanks for your interest in this discussion.

1. I trade on daily timeframe for a variety of reasons.

2. I judge strenght of support / resistance mainly based on the price level (some call them round numbers) together with what is going on in the economies. There are many other factors to consider in assigning a strength level to supports/resistances e.g. historical importance of these points, price behavior at these points, technicals (trenlines, fibs, etc.).

3. You are mostly correct but there maybe exceptions at times. Normally "value of news" is already built in the price before the announcement and therefore price comes back to pre-news level after going in either direction. However, sometimes market strangly behaves and goes in opposite direction or keeps on overreacting for extended periods of time. You would appreciate that sovereign interests are involved and they have significant influence over media if not "what" to report but at least "how" to report. For example if market takes a turn against their liking they may compare the current information with past three months or corresponding three months of last fiscal year whichever gives a picture they would like to paint, etc. Therefore I stay away from immediate reaction to the news. It may not be profitable but prudent. ps. There is news everyday but I focus only on very important news like NFP, interest rate decisions in critical times, etc. Yes you are right, so many news are pain in the neck and they put a freeze on trading for half of the time. But there is little we can do about it. Trading on bigger timeframe is one solution.

4. What you do is logical and works most of the time, but my mindset is different. If I allow myself flexibility, will burst my account in two days. Therefore, I have denied myself any flexibility. This keeps me focused on taking only good trades (i.e. that meet my criteria), becuase I know once I am in, there is no way out. I plan my escape based on where I enter and what would be my next couple of trades if this one fails. I try to chose a location to enter which provides possibility of a BE in future if it fails this time. I will later add a link to my post here to explain what I mean. Kindly note that my call in that post must have worked for whoever followed it, but many of my calls also prove me completely wrong. I will post that link only to explain importance of entry location and not to give myself undue credit.

Ps. This is the link we talked about in the above point 4.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=154
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #80
  • Oct 19, 2009 5:23pm Oct 19, 2009 5:23pm
Quoting Chicky
Cammomile, thanks for your interest in this discussion.

1. I trade on daily timeframe for a variety of reasons.

2. I judge strenght of support / resistance mainly based on the price level (some call them round numbers) together with what is going on in the economies. There are many other factors to consider in assigning a strength level to supports/resistances e.g. historical importance of these points, price behavior at these points, technicals (trenlines, fibs, etc.).

3. You are mostly correct but there maybe exceptions at times....


Hi Chicky,

Your trading philosophy pretty much similar to mine. Great post. Also, I would like to bump this thread to encourage a serious trading discussion.
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