Does longevity exist in trading? | Forex Factory

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Does longevity exist in trading?

  • #1
  • First Post: Nov 23, 2005 2:21am Nov 23, 2005 2:21am
hi guys,
Many traders who make good money in the market stopped trading after several years.

Is it more practical to fold when making good money in the market?

As jesse livermore once said "In the long term, you can't beat the market!"
  • #2
  • Nov 23, 2005 2:39am Nov 23, 2005 2:39am
If you can only die being struck by lightning then you are guaranteed to die by being struck by lightning.

It is inevitable that you will lose all of your money if you trade for long enough. You just need to work out when the best time to walk away is.

Simon
  • #3
  • Nov 23, 2005 2:42am Nov 23, 2005 2:42am
It is said that if you do not deserve to make money you will lose what you have made.
To win is not hard, hard is to keep what you have gained.
that's why experienced traders recommend if you fullfilled you monthly/yearly trading plan by more than 150% just have a rest. withdraw funds.
kiss the trend
  • #4
  • Nov 23, 2005 2:49am Nov 23, 2005 2:49am
i think it exists. look no further than market wizards to find the proof. look at a guy like steve cohen, you think he'll ever go bust? i think not.
Relax and be happy.
  • #5
  • Nov 23, 2005 5:26am Nov 23, 2005 5:26am
Quoting fx-trader777
experienced traders recommend if you fullfilled you monthly/yearly trading plan by more than 150% just have a rest.
I agree with this. It's really important to have monthly/yearly goals, and if you happen to reach them and, perhaps, over-score them, then you should consider treating yourself for a nice, long and well-deserved holidays in order to reload your batteries for the next round (meaning next month/year of trading). If you keep sturbbornly pushing the envelop, sooned or later you'll burn for sure.

Remember that trading is a long-distance race: take it slowly but steadly, and you'll eventually win the race.
  • #6
  • Nov 23, 2005 11:03am Nov 23, 2005 11:03am
Quoting Blackship
hi guys,
Many traders who make good money in the market stopped trading after several years.

Is it more practical to fold when making good money in the market?

As jesse livermore once said "In the long term, you can't beat the market!"
If no one can beat the market in the long term, then all markets are useless..This is not correct...You can't beat the market every week, yes, you must have losing weeks...You can't beat the market every month forever, yes, you must having losing months, but overall you can beat the market, because others did before as Merlin said, so it's not a miracle, it's a fact...

Think about it, if no body can beat the market in the long term, then no body is going to invest, then economies won't grow...If no body can beat the market, people must be all losing money in the long term, so in the long term people are getting poorer, so this assumes that long term inflation must be near zero if not negative, which is not the case at all, actually inflation is soaring everywhere, which supposes that people are getting rich and spending more money, that's why inflation is increasing...

Do you think corporate insiders are not traders?? They are...They invest for the long term...If they know they won't be able to beat the market, why do they hold on for their shares for 5 and sometimes 10+ years?? Because they know they will beat the market or at least there is a big chance they will...


Thanks,

Nader
  • #7
  • Nov 23, 2005 11:08am Nov 23, 2005 11:08am
Well, in my opinion, everything has its end. If you will fly twice a day you will surely die in a crash, sooner or later. Same to crossing a street, whatever.
  • #8
  • Nov 23, 2005 4:38pm Nov 23, 2005 4:38pm
A great question. I look for "sustainability" in everything i've done in my profession and that includes trading. When i was day trading the ES, it was like a non stop pin ball machine. I think i got all my gray hairs there. Now i am trading longer bars, and while i do get impatient sometimes and put on a trade when the bar i was basing it on was only half built, i am much more relaxed. That HAS helped my trading, and i think it will help my heart in the long run!
  • #9
  • Nov 23, 2005 7:34pm Nov 23, 2005 7:34pm
Quoting Isotonic
i agree if you treat trading like a business. this "hold 'em & fold 'em" way of thinking is just pure foolishness that indicates treating it like a game or a hobby.

if you have a business or trading plan that has a positive expectancy long term and have the discipline to follow it then you should be able to survive and prosper as well.
EXACTLY,

The rest of you sound like you're playing roulette.

The thing I see in leveraged markets is gambling mentality....undercapitalised, overleveraged.

With positive expectancy and correct money management it is virtually impossible to crash and burn.

Cheers
  • #10
  • Nov 23, 2005 8:04pm Nov 23, 2005 8:04pm
Quoting wayneL
EXACTLY,

The rest of you sound like you're playing roulette.

The thing I see in leveraged markets is gambling mentality....undercapitalised, overleveraged.

With positive expectancy and correct money management it is virtually impossible to crash and burn.

Cheers
Lets say I am trading the futures market and I have a position open. Something catastropic happens like say, a terrorist sets of a nuclear weapon at the whitehouse and 5 million people are killed. As a result, the market I am trading gets locked limit down for 5 days in a row and when I can eventually get out, I have lost all of my capital. No money management can protect me from this. Is it likely to happen? Probably not. But if you trade long enough (and I mean maybe for 1000 years), then it is inevitable that you will lose all of your money by meeting on of those 1 in 1 million trading events.

Simon
  • #11
  • Edited 10:31pm Nov 23, 2005 10:22pm | Edited 10:31pm
Quoting DrRock
Lets say I am trading the futures market and I have a position open. Something catastropic happens like say, a terrorist sets of a nuclear weapon at the whitehouse and 5 million people are killed. As a result, the market I am trading gets locked limit down for 5 days in a row and when I can eventually get out, I have lost all of my capital. No money management can protect me from this. Is it likely to happen? Probably not. But if you trade long enough (and I mean maybe for 1000 years), then it is inevitable that you will lose all of your money by meeting on of those 1 in 1 million trading events.

Simon
If that happens, our trading account is the least of our worries.

BTW, I got caught in a lock limit scenario that did last 5 days. Remember the CJD scare?

It hurt, but was not devastating to my account.

Money management should account for left field scenarios.

Stock traders encounter 50% gaps or more all the time.

The key is in understanding the notional value of the underlying position of the leveraged commodity alongside the native volatility of the instrument in question. This is something stock traders are acutely aware as mostly they trade the underlying value i.e. they are unleveraged.

This means being aware that with a single contract, you are actually trading up to $125,000 of an underlying commodity. If there is even a remote chance that huge swings are possible, then account for that in your plan.

It means you won't be rubbing shoulders with Soros et al next year starting off with 10k of capital...or even 250k of capital.

But you will ensure the survival of your trading "business".
  • #12
  • Last Post: Nov 23, 2005 10:49pm Nov 23, 2005 10:49pm
Quoting merlin
look at a guy like steve cohen
Is it that guy who is trying to promote forex.com?
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