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High Probability

  • #161
  • Oct 12, 2009 4:37am Oct 12, 2009 4:37am
seems the 50 setting is popular with traders.
55 is a little slower...
the 2 trades were worth 50 pips, I took +3..
cci cross of 50 is pretty solid,
more confidence to stay in the trade.
more times than not, the trade will be worth 10 pips or more on the 5m.
especially if ashi confirms, so it would be worth it to risk 10 pips on a stop to get 25, like the last 2 signals...
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Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 DRBobCCI.ex4   4 KB | 309 downloads
File Type: mq4 DRBobCCI.mq4   4 KB | 383 downloads
  • #162
  • Oct 12, 2009 4:41am Oct 12, 2009 4:41am
1m, signal says going to 200 ema
I am not trading signals on the 1 m though...
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  • #163
  • Oct 12, 2009 5:02am Oct 12, 2009 5:02am
well maybe not right away to 200 ema on the 1m
5m is where I am looking for entries...
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  • #164
  • Oct 12, 2009 5:17am Oct 12, 2009 5:17am
2 good signals
cci cross up 100
ashi confirm
If I could just keep it all in my head at once.
The way this system was originally set up is to identify the trend on the 5m and trade with it on the 1m.
Back to basics.
The signals for the trend are on the 5m.
The actual entries and re entries will be on the 1m...
just keep it all in my head at once...
the forest and the trees thing..
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  • #165
  • Oct 12, 2009 5:34am Oct 12, 2009 5:34am
trend is up on 5m
cross up of 100 by cci with ashi confirm
10 pip stop
10 pip limit
demo trade
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  • #166
  • Oct 12, 2009 6:50am Oct 12, 2009 6:50am
trading demo for this reason
not quite in sync...
-9 pips
need to stay with 1 time frame.
5 minute has been good.
don't jump into the 1m..
just stay with 5 min...
fresh signals.
if cci 50 crosses up 100
to confirm ashi.
enter long
cci crossing up 100
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  • #167
  • Oct 12, 2009 7:06am Oct 12, 2009 7:06am
not in sync
that is why I am only trading the demo
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  • #168
  • Oct 12, 2009 7:08am Oct 12, 2009 7:08am
never mind cci cross 100 or cross -100, just use cross 0
  • #169
  • Oct 12, 2009 11:51am Oct 12, 2009 11:51am
Quoting jiva34
never mind cci cross 100 or cross -100, just use cross 0
What settings are you using for DRbobCCI indicator?
Thank you.
  • #170
  • Edited 2:23pm Oct 12, 2009 1:16pm | Edited 2:23pm
Quoting michaelB
What settings are you using for DRbobCCI indicator?
Thank you.
Hi,
have been running the simulator on cci but to tell you the truth, it's not as good as using the fisher histogram and the fisher transform. I tried cci 55 and then cci 50 with a cci 6 cutting across the 50. but even cci55 is too jumpy
fisher is very steady. cci crosses and recrosses 0 a million times,
fisher transform crosses and that's that...

I'm going to stick with fisher.
  • #171
  • Oct 12, 2009 1:50pm Oct 12, 2009 1:50pm
I've sent you a PM Jiva34. How is it going with your trading?

Quoting jiva34
Hi,
have been running the simulator on cci but to tell you the truth, it's not as good as using the fisher histogram and the fisher tradnsform. I tried cci 55 and then cci 50 with a cci 6 cutting across the 50. but even cci55 is too jumpy
fisher is very steady. cci crosses and recrosses 0 a million times,
fisher transform crosses and that's that...

I'm going to stick to stick with fisher.
  • #172
  • Oct 12, 2009 2:52pm Oct 12, 2009 2:52pm
There are times that are better than others to trade.
There can be no doubt about it London open is the really the best. Data for Eur and GBP comes out at that time also. The moves are usually pretty sweeping and can go for a long time in a trend. US open is also active.
So I want to be ready to look for entries especially London or a little before.
And also US. This morning there were 2 or 3 entries signalled during early London trading and they totaled over 75 pips. I was there and entered but closed for a total of 3 pips. That may be alright at off times to do that, but not during the best times. Time of day is a major factor. Just trading the London open could produce enough pips to not have to trade any more in a day.
So let me focus.
Only thing is I am working at that time and it is a little awkward to trade and work at the same time even though work is in a lull then.
still at any minute the phone can ring., etc. If it is 5m chart then I should be able to set a stop and a limit and walk away. So being at work should not really matter if I can't watch every second in front of the screen. Maybe it would be better to not do that anyway, talk about stress..
Plan for Tues. start to look for entries around Frankfurt open. Watch out for sensitive data report times, look for entries especially around London open and plan to stay in the trade for a while, not just jump out with 1 pip.Look for exits at support and resistances, the 200 ema etc.
Trade the micro not the demo.
and relax.
  • #173
  • Oct 12, 2009 10:22pm Oct 12, 2009 10:22pm
Good luck my friend. I know you can do it. Just stay focused and relaxed and you will do just fine.

Quoting jiva34
There are times that are better than others to trade.
There can be no doubt about it London open is the really the best. Data for Eur and GBP comes out at that time also. The moves are usually pretty sweeping and can go for a long time in a trend. US open is also active.
So I want to be ready to look for entries especially London or a little before.
And also US. This morning there were 2 or 3 entries signalled during early London trading and they totaled over 75 pips. I was there and entered but closed for a total of 3 pips. That may be alright...
  • #174
  • Oct 12, 2009 10:34pm Oct 12, 2009 10:34pm
After noticing your journal title, I could not help but make a quick statement.

The High Probablitiy is that you'll lose most of your trades for some time, then eventually, you will catch a few good winners and think, wow, this is easy.

That is when you decide to put the real money on the line, and the high probabilty fact comes back quick and you lose it all again.

Good luck in your endeavor, I will check back in about 2 years to see how it is going.

N2FX
  • #175
  • Oct 13, 2009 12:03am Oct 13, 2009 12:03am
Quoting N2FX
After noticing your journal title, I could not help but make a quick statement.

The High Probablitiy is that you'll lose most of your trades for some time, then eventually, you will catch a few good winners and think, wow, this is easy.

That is when you decide to put the real money on the line, and the high probabilty fact comes back quick and you lose it all again.

Good luck in your endeavor, I will check back in about 2 years to see how it is going.

N2FX
Thank you for showing concern.
Yes I am aware of how a trader can get sucked in thinking I can't lose after a couple of small gains only to go out of business by placing too big a risk on the next trade and have it come up a loser.
Evidently you speak from personal experience, the most emphatic teacher...
Please do check back in a few years...
Best wishes to you also...
  • #176
  • Oct 13, 2009 12:49am Oct 13, 2009 12:49am
practicing on simulator
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  • #177
  • Oct 13, 2009 1:32am Oct 13, 2009 1:32am
entered long in micro
200 ema support stop just below
limit recent high +20 pips
Frankfurt open
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  • #178
  • Oct 14, 2009 12:25am Oct 14, 2009 12:25am
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...=1#post3144447

visit on the discussion forum.
This system still not quite right.
am working on something else I feel is much much better
it is not something new.
it is something very old and simple
and is working nicely in testing.
best wishes
jiva34
  • #179
  • Oct 15, 2009 4:20am Oct 15, 2009 4:20am
Staying focused is my big challenge.
Trading results in the demo and with the simulator were remaining somewhat consistent until I tried to trade with real money in a micro account.
I knew there would be special challenges with using real money even if it were pennies. I blew the account up in 1 day. It was only $25, but micro means $.10 per pip. So that is like $250 at $10 pip. Not much room for stop loss. Still I need to practice a lot more before putting any money on the line.
Wouldn't you know it the next day, yesterday I used a demo and closed the day +41 pips.
There is something about real money that spooks me. I lose my clarity completely (whatever clarity I have).
So I have a plan. How to make money without any risk at all.
Anyone interested in my plan can send me a pm.
today so far, +4 pips..
I will trade all day today according to my plan, not using any money.
One sure dead giveaway is when the templates start to get crowded. More and more indicators...
So back to fisher50, 200 ema, pivots....
That's it.
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  • #180
  • Oct 15, 2009 6:51am Oct 15, 2009 6:51am
am adding ashi smoothed to template
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