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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #10,941
  • Oct 13, 2009 9:08am Oct 13, 2009 9:08am
Quoting auxesis
Happy trading day everyone,

The run up on the euro left these levels untested, imho, euro bulls will mount an attempt from these areas, if they fail to make new high, watch out.

Like wize Pete, when the euro broke north out of your flag, the following south failed to make new low, that should scream danger when attempting short off the broken resistance line. actually the play would have been to long the broken flag north on the retrace.

fwiw,
That's how I saw it. Similar situation on the $/CAD going south. The market is currently squaring those moves so sorry to say I missed the retrace profits. Oh well, mustn't be greedy.
  • #10,942
  • Oct 13, 2009 11:10am Oct 13, 2009 11:10am
The pound felt quite bearish to me in the morning, good thing I managed to get out with minimum damage.

I will need some fresh air after the battle today. Or maybe not - there's a real storm going on outside - when did that happen ?!
  • #10,943
  • Oct 13, 2009 12:40pm Oct 13, 2009 12:40pm
Euro bull riders be careful this afternoon.
  • #10,944
  • Oct 13, 2009 1:08pm Oct 13, 2009 1:08pm
Anyone know why the USD is so volatile at the moment? There doesn't seem to be any important news scheduled.
  • #10,945
  • Oct 13, 2009 1:09pm Oct 13, 2009 1:09pm
Bang, someone just stepped in on the Yen, seeing $ move on the euro as well. Easy pips
  • #10,946
  • Oct 13, 2009 1:13pm Oct 13, 2009 1:13pm
89.50 is the new slap down number? US Senate is about to vote on health care bill, perhaps..... some key Rep. Senators are seen as moving in favor, health care sector is sinking the Dow today
  • #10,947
  • Oct 13, 2009 1:18pm Oct 13, 2009 1:18pm
Hi Friends,

just for Info:

USDJPY: US IB Buyer of Bucket Full of USD

New York, October 13. US IB buying a truckload of USD/JPY at 2PM running stops. Sloppy price action suggests it may be corporate related. [i][email protected][/i]

Disclaimer; Be aware of possible COw Dung included ;-)
  • #10,948
  • Oct 13, 2009 1:25pm Oct 13, 2009 1:25pm
Quoting MaMood
Hi Friends,

just for Info:

USDJPY: US IB Buyer of Bucket Full of USD

New York, October 13. US IB buying a truckload of USD/JPY at 2PM running stops. Sloppy price action suggests it may be corporate related. [i][email protected][/i]

Disclaimer; Be aware of possible COw Dung included ;-)
I love the anonymous intervention, last week we saw big name out of Europe on the Euro, Asian Banks, and Big Corp on the Yen, today the same........ yeah, sure (wink) (wink)
  • #10,949
  • Oct 13, 2009 1:26pm Oct 13, 2009 1:26pm
Quoting auxesis
I love the anonymous intervention
At least there should be a strong support at 8950 now ...
  • #10,950
  • Oct 13, 2009 1:29pm Oct 13, 2009 1:29pm
Quoting MaMood
At least there should be a strong support at 8950 now ...
I think some folks just learned that the hard way, everyone now
  • #10,951
  • Oct 13, 2009 1:35pm Oct 13, 2009 1:35pm
Market Makers swept before placing the order. Sure was big....I wouldn't expect the CB to be so obvious.
  • #10,952
  • Oct 13, 2009 1:39pm Oct 13, 2009 1:39pm
Quoting MaMood
At least there should be a strong support at 8950 now ...
I was ready to push the buy button at 49 but hesitated. Lets see if the water finds its level.
  • #10,953
  • Oct 13, 2009 1:45pm Oct 13, 2009 1:45pm
Quoting Zoran
I was ready to push the buy button at 49 but hesitated. Lets see if the water finds its level.
Unfortunately I was hesitating too.
Could have been so very easy pips.
But let's be happy, that we haven't been short at that time ....

There are still waiting thousands of pips ahead ....
  • #10,954
  • Oct 13, 2009 1:51pm Oct 13, 2009 1:51pm
Quoting MaMood
Unfortunately I was hesitating too.
Could have been so very easy pips.
But let's be happy, that we haven't been short at that time ....

There are still waiting thousands of pips ahead ....
Yes, many pips awaiting collection.
I'm only thinking about buying USD/JPY at this point in time. Nothing has really happened to change my mind.
  • #10,955
  • Edited 2:17pm Oct 13, 2009 2:00pm | Edited 2:17pm
i was realy lucky to be out the moment the move started.

to bad i did not flip LOL.

edit: this chart is from the RBS market index... it uses oanda technology and at the moment i am happy with it (trading to be smartest trader2009 contest hihi) for dutch german and english people. maybe it is worth checking it out...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: lucky.JPG Size: 117 KB
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #10,956
  • Oct 13, 2009 2:02pm Oct 13, 2009 2:02pm
I'm seeing that the CB of Peru intervened today
  • #10,957
  • Oct 13, 2009 2:02pm Oct 13, 2009 2:02pm
Quoting Zoran
Yes, many pips awaiting collection.
I'm only thinking about buying USD/JPY at this point in time. Nothing has really happened to change my mind.
I'm not sure about middle and long term development.
I still prefer very short term dances.
But from my gut I would say keep patient, there will be some better entries again.
Or scale into your position in "dealer style" ....
How ever, I wish you good success
  • #10,958
  • Oct 13, 2009 2:11pm Oct 13, 2009 2:11pm
Now seeing Brazil's CB to buy dollars at spot mkt auction
  • #10,959
  • Oct 13, 2009 2:20pm Oct 13, 2009 2:20pm
My USDJPY 5 sec chart shows me, that there is a strong battle around this 8970 level. Not sure, if it will go much deeper ...

By the way: Tomorrow in the early Wall Street morning the JPMorgan earnings will be published. This could be a very stock market moving event end of course for the currencies too.
  • #10,960
  • Oct 13, 2009 2:58pm Oct 13, 2009 2:58pm
Quoting MaMood
By the way: Tomorrow in the early Wall Street morning the JPMorgan earnings will be published. This could be a very stock market moving event end of course for the currencies too.
in about 15 minutes there is intel earnings report.... could this be FXmarket moving???
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
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