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4H Box Breakout

  • #4,881
  • Oct 12, 2009 12:23pm Oct 12, 2009 12:23pm
Quoting shiko
yes, you are right.
Don't get me wrong, it could be the final move, it could very well just go through, or bounce off and that'll be that, but my mind don't work that way. For some reason, I just consume all the variables and spit out all possible scenarios, then I deduce via PA what scenario it's going to be, and then I act accordingly.
  • #4,882
  • Oct 12, 2009 1:35pm Oct 12, 2009 1:35pm
Quoting Pharoah
Don't get me wrong, it could be the final move, it could very well just go through, or bounce off and that'll be that, but my mind don't work that way. For some reason, I just consume all the variables and spit out all possible scenarios, then I deduce via PA what scenario it's going to be, and then I act accordingly.
I understand you. it is like today's attempt to break 157.70 support of GBP/USD. It got penetrated but still bounced back strongly. this one is also has got great potential. actually, weekly/ daily charts of both G/U and G/J looks alike.
  • #4,883
  • Oct 12, 2009 1:40pm Oct 12, 2009 1:40pm
you mean 1.577 for GBP/USD?

And yeah, that's exactly what I mean, it didn't quite make it to the lower S&R and bounced off the one just above it at 1.587-1.592 before declining back to the lower S&R at 1.577
  • #4,884
  • Oct 12, 2009 1:48pm Oct 12, 2009 1:48pm
Quoting Pharoah
you mean 1.577 for GBP/USD?

And yeah, that's exactly what I mean, it didn't quite make it to the lower S&R and bounced off the one just above it before declining back to the lower S&R
I was actually sitting and watching and thinking to short or not when the price crossed 158.00 down. Before I would not hesitate, now, I did
This boxes of hours they actually add some point of reference and some discipline entering and exiting trades. we know when we are wrong and when we must enter trade.
Partial profits let us stay afloat and even earn some return before big moves happen and then we are in the money. I doubt Ace's original system would survive such periods especially if to risk 4% per trade.
  • #4,885
  • Oct 12, 2009 1:51pm Oct 12, 2009 1:51pm
Small box also helps to have great R:R when it does matter. say box of 50 pips. when it happens TP3-TP4 on Ace box, it is R:R of 9:1 to 12:1 and it happened twice or 3 times since second half of August.
  • #4,886
  • Oct 12, 2009 1:55pm Oct 12, 2009 1:55pm
Quoting shiko
I was actually sitting and watching and thinking to short or not when the price crossed 158.00 down. Before I would not hesitate, now, I did
This boxes of hours they actually add some point of reference and some discipline entering and exiting trades. we know when we are wrong and when we must enter trade.
Partial profits let us stay afloat and even earn some return before big moves happen and then we are in the money. I doubt Ace's original system would survive such periods especially if to risk 4% per trade.
Again, check the monthly zoomed out chart of GBPUSD, where the lines you have plotted for this week, check where those lines are in comparison to PA over the past 30 years. Again, even GBPUSD is currently at a Super S&R zone which is the median pivot point of PA over the past 30 years.
  • #4,887
  • Oct 12, 2009 1:56pm Oct 12, 2009 1:56pm
Quoting shiko
Small box also helps to have great R:R when it does matter. say box of 50 pips. when it happens TP3-TP4 on Ace box, it is R:R of 9:1 to 12:1 and it happened twice or 3 times since second half of August.
Exactly, this is something I'm actually looking into for my Banker Buster EA, base the box size on ATR or something similar.
  • #4,888
  • Oct 12, 2009 2:26pm Oct 12, 2009 2:26pm
Quoting Pharoah
Exactly, this is something I'm actually looking into for my Banker Buster EA, base the box size on ATR or something similar.
but how do you know what volatility going to be? ATR shows past volatility, no?
I also have been thinking about this. what stop loss size so that it is not just a loss but also provides with potential of good R;R depending on volatility.
  • #4,889
  • Oct 12, 2009 2:38pm Oct 12, 2009 2:38pm
Quoting shiko
but how do you know what volatility going to be? ATR shows past volatility, no?
I also have been thinking about this. what stop loss size so that it is not just a loss but also provides with potential of good R;R depending on volatility.
Unfortunately, there is no way to determine current volatility except watching it happen, but ATR or something similar gives us a better indication of what to expect that just guessing.

With that said, stoplosses should also be adjusted according to volatility for sure, as well as TP point to close partial.
  • #4,890
  • Oct 12, 2009 3:52pm Oct 12, 2009 3:52pm
Quoting Pharoah
Unfortunately, there is no way to determine current volatility except watching it happen, but ATR or something similar gives us a better indication of what to expect that just guessing.

With that said, stoplosses should also be adjusted according to volatility for sure, as well as TP point to close partial.
I think with G/J stop loss of 50 pip will be fine for most of times. G/U and E/J it probably should be 40 pips.
  • #4,891
  • Oct 12, 2009 4:05pm Oct 12, 2009 4:05pm
Quoting shiko
I think with G/J stop loss of 50 pip will be fine for most of times. G/U and E/J it probably should be 40 pips.
Ya, those are the SL I've been kinda looking at. They seem to just fit for the most part.
  • #4,892
  • Oct 12, 2009 4:07pm Oct 12, 2009 4:07pm
Quoting Pharoah
Ya, those are the SL I've been kinda looking at. They seem to just fit for the most part.
I started trading another strategy on vacation and stop losses for G/J are 500-700 pips. LOL
  • #4,893
  • Oct 12, 2009 4:11pm Oct 12, 2009 4:11pm
Quoting shiko
I started trading another strategy on vacation and stop losses for G/J are 500-700 pips. LOL
Ouch, I hope that strat has whicked good R:R and a HUGE % win rate lol
  • #4,894
  • Oct 12, 2009 4:30pm Oct 12, 2009 4:30pm
Quoting Pharoah
Ouch, I hope that strat has whicked good R:R and a HUGE % win rate lol

This one is mostly discretionary trading. R:R is not what it is with the box. Obviously there should be many winning trades and some big winners too. Leverage is very small. It is BWILC method.
  • #4,895
  • Oct 12, 2009 4:46pm Oct 12, 2009 4:46pm
Quoting shiko
This one is mostly discretionary trading. R:R is not what it is with the box. Obviously there should be many winning trades and some big winners too. Leverage is very small. It is BWILC method.
Now, I've heard of that, "Bird Watching In Lion Country" or something along those lines, but I have no idea about it's technicalities, but from what I gather, it's a sound method.
  • #4,896
  • Oct 12, 2009 4:53pm Oct 12, 2009 4:53pm
Quoting Pharoah
Now, I've heard of that, "Bird Watching In Lion Country" or something along those lines, but I have no idea about it's technicalities, but from what I gather, it's a sound method.
Yes, if to know what you are doing. 2 things which are the most important. Determine where pair is moving in long run and know when to cut losing trade which is a hardest part. with Box we all know when to run, but here it is discretionary. Hence low leverage is a must and of course multiple positions.
I am watching one guy at another forum who is trading live funds $10 000. He has doubled it already in 8 months. Right now 210% gain.
  • #4,897
  • Oct 12, 2009 5:07pm Oct 12, 2009 5:07pm
Quoting shiko
Yes, if to know what you are doing. 2 things which are the most important. Determine where pair is moving in long run and know when to cut losing trade which is a hardest part. with Box we all know when to run, but here it is discretionary. Hence low leverage is a must and of course multiple positions.
I am watching one guy at another forum who is trading live funds $10 000. He has doubled it already in 8 months. Right now 210% gain.
So, basically, it's determining a trend, and placing an order in the direction of the trend, setting huge SL/TP points, and managing the trade from there?
  • #4,898
  • Oct 12, 2009 5:17pm Oct 12, 2009 5:17pm
I am looking into mixing in some adx features. If I come up with something that works with adx then I will post it here for people.

Regards,
Jeff

Quoting Pharoah
So, basically, it's determining a trend, and placing an order in the direction of the trend, setting huge SL/TP points, and managing the trade from there?
  • #4,899
  • Oct 12, 2009 5:34pm Oct 12, 2009 5:34pm
Quoting azjeff
I am looking into mixing in some adx features. If I come up with something that works with adx then I will post it here for people.

Regards,
Jeff
Yeah, that quote was in reference to the BWILC method Shiko is testing out, I'm reading up on ADX now as well.
  • #4,900
  • Oct 12, 2009 6:54pm Oct 12, 2009 6:54pm
Quoting Pharoah
So, basically, it's determining a trend, and placing an order in the direction of the trend, setting huge SL/TP points, and managing the trade from there?
No it is not exactly this way.
If you PM me your email I can send you the original book Bird watching in lion country. It is grid method preferably trend following but also works in ranging markets with multiple entries in one direction and small leverage per each entry. i tis like instead of entering with 1 lot per position you break it in 4 and open 4 positions 0.25 of the lot size each at different prices at S/R zones each.
I have just started learning it. so far 4.5% up, have some floating positions. i am actuially short on GBP/ JPY
I am trading only this pair so far due to fundamental trend and its high volatility.
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