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4H Box Breakout

  • #4,861
  • Oct 11, 2009 8:20pm Oct 11, 2009 8:20pm
box high 142.74
box low 141.58
box range 116
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY121009.gif Size: 29 KB
  • #4,862
  • Oct 11, 2009 8:21pm Oct 11, 2009 8:21pm
low = 141.78
high = 142.54

plus buffer and spread gives us a box of 116 pips

Good trading
Just for today, do not worry...
  • #4,863
  • Oct 12, 2009 2:07am Oct 12, 2009 2:07am
long entry was triggered, half position closed at profit at 50 pips. the rest got stopped.
  • #4,864
  • Oct 12, 2009 2:50am Oct 12, 2009 2:50am
short position opened. got stopped.
  • #4,865
  • Oct 12, 2009 5:51am Oct 12, 2009 5:51am
shiko, may i ask about the rules of your system? Im sorry but i couldnt find them...
Twitter @raitchev
  • #4,866
  • Oct 12, 2009 7:44am Oct 12, 2009 7:44am
IBFX second candle had two loses during the night. OUCH!!
  • #4,867
  • Oct 12, 2009 8:31am Oct 12, 2009 8:31am
again got stopped. last position order left, will cancel if not opened by London close. only 0.5% down today so far thanks to 1 winning trade.
I am oin the process of testing my rules, after I see them working I will post.
  • #4,868
  • Oct 12, 2009 8:32am Oct 12, 2009 8:32am
actually, one losing trade should not have been opened. I messes with limit buy and buy stop order. Position was opened 9 pips below my order, price did not reach it. it looked like it was hit by spread. what is the difference between buy limit and buy stop?
  • #4,869
  • Oct 12, 2009 8:40am Oct 12, 2009 8:40am
Quoting shiko
actually, one losing trade should not have been opened. I messes with limit buy and buy stop order. Position was opened 9 pips below my order, price did not reach it. it looked like it was hit by spread. what is the difference between buy limit and buy stop?
Shiko . . . when you say "price did not reach it", are you referring to the price shown on your chart? If so, the price on the charts always refers to the Sell price. If you have a 9-pip spread, that would account for your Buy trade opening.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #4,870
  • Oct 12, 2009 8:50am Oct 12, 2009 8:50am
Quoting yen44x
Shiko . . . when you say "price did not reach it", are you referring to the price shown on your chart? If so, the price on the charts always refers to the Sell price. If you have a 9-pip spread, that would account for your Buy trade opening.

Hi Yen,
I mean the candle did not even touch my order. and it got opened.
When I leave limit order with Oanda not only candle need to touch, it should cross my price to trigger it. It is different here. It looks like I should have opened order 9 pips higher to get price I was looking for.
  • #4,871
  • Oct 12, 2009 8:52am Oct 12, 2009 8:52am
My last trade for this session is triggered. it is short trade.
  • #4,872
  • Oct 12, 2009 9:05am Oct 12, 2009 9:05am
141.65 Friday lowest point is between me and my first target. I will probably close 50% manually if it hits this price without breaking and move stop to BE. if it reaches there.
  • #4,873
  • Oct 12, 2009 10:23am Oct 12, 2009 10:23am
closed 50% position at 50 pips. moved stop loss to BE +10 pips. Price moved below Friday's low. Let's hope it is another attempt on 139.73 support level.
anyway, if stop is hit I am down only 0.3% for today after few losing trades and all thanks to taking partial profits when winning. had i only moved stop losses to BE i would be down much more.
  • #4,874
  • Oct 12, 2009 10:38am Oct 12, 2009 10:38am
Well, this is what I see.

Currently, the bounce point is at 139.69 to the fraction of a pip historically (over the last month) with lower highs forming a Flag formation, I suspect, due to historic characteristics of PA over the past month, that this particular move should reach a minimum of 141.25-141.15. I believe this to be the ultimate Take Profit point.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Oct-Flag.jpg Size: 147 KB
  • #4,875
  • Oct 12, 2009 10:44am Oct 12, 2009 10:44am
Quoting Pharoah
Well, this is what I see.

Currently, the bounce point is at 139.69 to the fraction of a pip historically (over the last month) with lower highs forming a Flag formation, I suspect, due to historic characteristics of PA over the past month, that this particular move should reach a minimum of 141.25-141.15. I believe this to be the ultimate Take Profit point.
Attachment

If it moved there I will move stop loss 40 pips more down to cover my DD if I am stopped.
Situation looks pretty much similar to what was going on when price was testing 149.00... hopefully results will be similar as well...
  • #4,876
  • Oct 12, 2009 10:59am Oct 12, 2009 10:59am
Quoting shiko
If it moved there I will move stop loss 40 pips more down to cover my DD if I am stopped.
Situation looks pretty much similar to what was going on when price was testing 149.00... hopefully results will be similar as well...
I don't suspect that price will drop below the 139.69 mark just yet, we are at a super S&R, I suspect before this range is done and we get either a good drop, or a nice climb, we are going to experience at least once more bounce off the Super S&R at 139.69 to taper off the flag, but before it tests the Super S&R at 139.69, it could bounce off the Major at 140.84 and tag the top trend of the flag (this is why I say this move should have an ultimate of 141.15-141.25 take profit) before turning around to tag the Super S&R again.

Here is an image to help illustrate what I mean.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Oct-Flag2.jpg Size: 146 KB
  • #4,877
  • Oct 12, 2009 11:22am Oct 12, 2009 11:22am
ok, got stopped but with small profit. total Dd for today 0.23% with risk of 0.5% per trade.
  • #4,878
  • Oct 12, 2009 12:05pm Oct 12, 2009 12:05pm
Quoting Pharoah
I don't suspect that price will drop below the 139.69 mark just yet, we are at a super S&R, I suspect before this range is done and we get either a good drop, or a nice climb, we are going to experience at least once more bounce off the Super S&R at 139.69 to taper off the flag, but before it tests the Super S&R at 139.69, it could bounce off the Major at 140.84 and tag the top trend of the flag (this is why I say this move should have an ultimate of 141.15-141.25 take profit) before turning around to tag the Super S&R again.

Here is an image to...

I think it does not matter what Super S&R. If it is tested enough times everything gonna break. It is psychological thing. People start see this level as normal... 149.00. same thing happened. 3 times tested than broken.
Current support also has hold 3 times. Let's see.
  • #4,879
  • Oct 12, 2009 12:14pm Oct 12, 2009 12:14pm
Quoting shiko
I think it does not matter what Super S&R. If it is tested enough times everything gonna break. It is psychological thing. People start see this level as normal... 149.00. same thing happened. 3 times tested than broken.
Current support also has hold 3 times. Let's see.
I agree, but this S&R has only been hit twice, and it appears as tho it is going to be hit again (might be a breakthrough), the major that is currently in between price and the super has been broken through twice already in this ranged period. I'm just pointing out the possibilities based on the historic actions from the beginning of the range to now, these 2 points (Super and major S&R) the Major has been respected once already, broken through twice, and the super has been respected every time thus far, it is only a matter of time, but when that time is, is still undetermined. And therefor, IMO, have to plan for all possible scenarios.
  • #4,880
  • Oct 12, 2009 12:19pm Oct 12, 2009 12:19pm
Quoting Pharoah
I agree, but this S&R has only been hit twice, and it appears as tho it is going to be hit again (might be a breakthrough), the major that is currently in between price and the super has been broken through twice already in this ranged period. I'm just pointing out the possibilities based on the historic actions from the beginning of the range to now, these 2 points (Super and major S&R) the Major has been respected once already, broken through twice, and the super has been respected every time thus far, it is only a matter of time, but when that...
yes, you are right.
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