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so i've lost half my capital

  • #41
  • Oct 11, 2009 6:59pm Oct 11, 2009 6:59pm
Quoting GreedyPIPs
I cannot believe that 95% lost their money and 5% made money on FX, nor can I believe that there is out there a 5% who never lost money on FX.

I am assuming that 95% is the portion of those who gave up, did not discipline themselves accordingly, etc... etc...

So a new week starts, lets see how this one goes...
I often wonder where this magical figure of 95% comes from. I have never seen any proof anywhere. Has anyone ever seen figures that prove or disprove this figure?
  • #42
  • Oct 11, 2009 7:48pm Oct 11, 2009 7:48pm
Quoting GreedyPIPs
I cannot believe that 95% lost their money and 5% made money on FX, nor can I believe that there is out there a 5% who never lost money on FX.

I am assuming that 95% is the portion of those who gave up, did not discipline themselves accordingly, etc... etc...

So a new week starts, lets see how this one goes...
Greedy,

Can I give you a piece of advice? I was much like you, played on a demo account for a while, everything was going fantastic.

I then went onto a live account, and was working based on this theory.

Trade as LARGE as I can to make instant money, if I get a margin call, it's the same as a somewhat tight stoploss. (as 1% liquidity was an option with my first broker).

My first trade netted me over $900 in profits, my second trade lost me just under $900, At the end of the day, I had just over what I had initially put in... That told me I had to re-evaluate what I was doing. I then stopped trading on that live account and started looking into techniques and tactics. This was 6-7 months ago, since then, through demo accounts, I've learned many many new techniques and tactics that have led me to the point I am today. Scalping is a very profitable method, but it can also be very detrimental if you are susceptible to greed or fear.

The only way you'll truly know if you've conquered these aspects of yourself is to trade live, but my advice, is to rebuild your confidence and will power with a demo account, otherwise, you'll lose everything you've put it thus far and end up never trading forex again, or putting more money in and losing it.

Currently, I very rarely trade on my live account, because I still have a number of things to learn. Granted, I'm well on my way to being one of the 5-10% of those that succeed, but I'm looking at it right now more as a hobby that cost's me nothing to partake in.

1 Trade can cause you to lose a months worth of work, these are the kinds of things you have to be prepared for, especially when you're not aware of price action, and why it acts the way it does. Bulls, bears, news, holidays, the ever growing influx of retail traders like the vast majority of us here are. All of this has an effect on the overall movements, how much they move, what kind of whiplash will come from a move.

My advice is to stop trading on the live account for a bit, and learn a few techniques, my first technique was scalping as well, but now, I barely even look at 1min-15 min charts at all, I'm 1h-monthly now, to look for trends, S&R and the like, because anything under 15mins really, doesn't mean anything because there is no true trend on a 1-15, it's only simple small price action that has nothing to do with the big picture overall. What looks like a sweet setup on the 1M could show on the 4M to be the exact opposite, and when you place your trade, the 4M signal shows up, and others place their trades that are the opposite directions of your, and all of a sudden, the market goes against you in a fury.. even tho everything on the 1M chart was looking SWEET...

Diversify your chart watching, it will help save you in the end.

Pharoah
  • #43
  • Oct 11, 2009 10:21pm Oct 11, 2009 10:21pm
Quoting GreedyPIPs
I have serious trouble with overtrading, and because i overtrade, i lose alot of stupid trades that i shouldnt be in, in the first place. Although i usually make a good 30 to 60 pips per day, when im lucky i'll only get to keep 20 pips, when im unlucky, ill close the laptop with a 20-40 pips loss, meaning i havent had a stable progress and i am unable to keep steady profits.
I overtrade because im greedy (hence my nickname), too greedy for my own good. I was doing fine trading daily candlesticks taking my time, but i wanted more, so i started......
Some advice: Stop overtrading?
  • #44
  • Oct 11, 2009 10:24pm Oct 11, 2009 10:24pm
Overtrading will kill your account in this business. Treat it as a business, pick your trades wisely.


Quoting GreedyPIPs
Im new in forex. I traded for 6 months using demos, with satisfying results, so i moved to a real micro account.

i opened a micro with fxcm depositing $400. I trade using 5 min candle sticks and a 24 EMA. I take with trend trades, when pa is near the ema, or countertrend trades when i see a double top/bottom. I open 10 lots with 10 pips SL and take what the market gives me (around 10-30 pips).

So today i lost $330. I know its not a big amount but considering my equity was at $480 after 3 weeks of hard work, it was a devastating blow to my psychology.

I...
  • #45
  • Oct 11, 2009 10:47pm Oct 11, 2009 10:47pm
Quoting GreedyPIPs
Im new in forex. I traded for 6 months using demos, with satisfying results, so i moved to a real micro account.
I'm also new on this, but I think what kick you was greedy, try to focus on your MM, and your Business Plan, don't do any crazy thing. 10pips SL is crazy man, with this volatility markets.
  • #46
  • Oct 11, 2009 10:50pm Oct 11, 2009 10:50pm
Quoting zarraman
I often wonder where this magical figure of 95% comes from. I have never seen any proof anywhere. Has anyone ever seen figures that prove or disprove this figure?
That's a myth for newbies , but a lot of people lose money, think like a 80/20 is more believable??

and good traders lose, but they are usually above 90% of profitable trades.
  • #47
  • Oct 12, 2009 1:03am Oct 12, 2009 1:03am
Quoting Forex4pty
That's a myth for newbies , but a lot of people lose money, think like a 80/20 is more believable??

and good traders lose, but they are usually above 90% of profitable trades.
It is interesting. I see traders throw these numbers around but I have never seen any empirical proof of exactly what the failure rate is. It would be illuminating to have a broker or prop trader come here and give us the true numbers. For example, what percentage of retail traders close their account with less than they opened their account. I am sure that anyone who has worked at a brokers office would know those percentages. Anyone?
  • #48
  • Oct 12, 2009 2:56am Oct 12, 2009 2:56am
Quoting zarraman
It is interesting. I see traders throw these numbers around but I have never seen any empirical proof of exactly what the failure rate is. It would be illuminating to have a broker or prop trader come here and give us the true numbers. For example, what percentage of retail traders close their account with less than they opened their account. I am sure that anyone who has worked at a brokers office would know those percentages. Anyone?
There are no official numbers. But if I look at both live trading contests at FxStreet.com in 2007 and 2009, 95% looks real.

In 2007 only 2 of 60 contestants ended positive: ~3%
In 2009 only 3 of 43 contestants ended positive: ~7%
  • #49
  • Oct 12, 2009 4:44am Oct 12, 2009 4:44am
95% is popularly known as a statistical certainty. (1,2.)
An advice article on such.
  • #50
  • Oct 12, 2009 9:38am Oct 12, 2009 9:38am
Quoting Xaron
There are no official numbers. But if I look at both live trading contests at FxStreet.com in 2007 and 2009, 95% looks real.

In 2007 only 2 of 60 contestants ended positive: ~3%
In 2009 only 3 of 43 contestants ended positive: ~7%
Wow, didn't knew about this, is good to know this

Well lets work hard to be among this 5%, right now, I'm still at 95% , working hard to get out of it, with patience, without greed, and a lot of study.
  • #51
  • Oct 12, 2009 9:42am Oct 12, 2009 9:42am
Follow this thread mate, you'll get that money back in less than a week

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=176451

Quoting GreedyPIPs
Im new in forex. I traded for 6 months using demos, with satisfying results, so i moved to a real micro account.

i opened a micro with fxcm depositing $400. I trade using 5 min candle sticks and a 24 EMA. I take with trend trades, when pa is near the ema, or countertrend trades when i see a double top/bottom. I open 10 lots with 10 pips SL and take what the market gives me (around 10-30 pips).

So today i lost $330. I know its not a big amount but considering my equity was at $480 after 3 weeks of hard work, it was a devastating blow to my psychology.

I...
PM Me If You Need Help!
  • #52
  • Oct 12, 2009 10:05am Oct 12, 2009 10:05am
did these 95% trader lose money to the market, or to bucket shops?
Have a nice day! I hope everything is going well for you!
  • #53
  • Oct 12, 2009 10:50am Oct 12, 2009 10:50am
Quoting Titan Trader
did these 95% trader lose money to the market, or to bucket shops?
To the market.

You have to think, even those statistics from the competitions are mostly experienced traders who at least have a good idea of how to trade forex. Alot of people will come in and expect forex to be a gold mine without knowing how to dig...

There are some that will win by chance a nice amount of money, and their instantly hooked like a gambler, putting money into a machine, most cases ending up broke, much like gambling (not poker or other bluff/mental strategy type games, but slots and the like that are programmed to make you lose).

I suspect if those are the results of "experienced traders" than I would imagine the figures to be much scarier in the open market, like 1% of ALL traders (experienced or not) will end in success, 4% will be able to put some extra money in pocket, but nothing major, and 95% will just end up paying everyone else's bills.
  • #54
  • Oct 13, 2009 8:43am Oct 13, 2009 8:43am
Pharoah what you just said makes much sense to me. I don't know if i belong to the norm, or if in the 95%, but so far i have been able to make money only when demo trading, and lose money when live trading. Regardless of strategy and trading method, i m starting to think that its a game where only big equity-capitalized institutions and individuals stand a chance of making real money...
  • #55
  • Oct 13, 2009 8:46am Oct 13, 2009 8:46am
Quoting GreedyPIPs
Regardless of strategy and trading method, i m starting to think that its a game where only big equity-capitalized institutions and individuals stand a chance of making real money...
No, that's not true, definitely. But you can't expect to make millions starting with $100 within months like some newcomers think they can.
  • #56
  • Oct 13, 2009 9:57am Oct 13, 2009 9:57am
Quoting GreedyPIPs
Pharoah what you just said makes much sense to me. I don't know if i belong to the norm, or if in the 95%, but so far i have been able to make money only when demo trading, and lose money when live trading. Regardless of strategy and trading method, i m starting to think that its a game where only big equity-capitalized institutions and individuals stand a chance of making real money...
Lets see if this helps, try to Demo with the same amount of money you are going live. If you Demo with 50,000, it is very normal to make money, if you fail with 50,000, you need to practice a lot. Remember if you are going to open an account with $500 and you are new, try micro lots(.01lot), to get use to it, is the same as Demo 50,000. For mini accounts(.10lot) $2,000 and up, better $5,000, and so on, and try to always use your SL/TP on 1% of your capital, make a business plan and always trade .01 for micro accts. / .10lot for mini accounts, not more than that. This will guarantee you will be here trading for more time
  • #57
  • Oct 13, 2009 10:00am Oct 13, 2009 10:00am
I've never said i expect to make millions... Nor thousands.
All i want is 50 pips a day. Small steady profits.
Apparently day trading is not for me.

After depositing $400, i made around $100 trading daily candles.
Then i read this book from Brooks, "Reading price charts bar by bar" where he emphasized the pros of daily trading, especially 5 min candle sticks.
At the beggining i was making some money, took the account up to $600.
And then the problems started, and after a month, my account was down to $130. Thats when i first started this topic.

Now my account is down to $80, after trying to trade with 5 min and 15 min candles. I do not use indicators, i do not go counter trend, i simply try to go with trend and take small profits. Problem is that my profitable trades are as many as my unprofitable trades.

So i said, wtf, ill close the account, withdraw the money, and demo trade, till i get better at this.

But it is not that simple. FXCM charges $15 for withdrawing money. Lol, so all i would get is $65.

So, I guess i should give up intraday trading, small time frames, etc, and stick with what i was successful in the first place, Daily candles.

I don't see how i can trade with $80 capital, so i think im gonna risk opening only one position on EURUSD, and hope i can make some money with this, so i can trade with 1 micro lot, otherwise im gonna let the account go bust.
  • #58
  • Oct 13, 2009 10:05am Oct 13, 2009 10:05am
Greedy, you can take that $80 and move it to Oanda. There you can trade in units. Your $80 will last a little longer and you'll still be live trading.

Just an idea. I wouldn't purposely blow it.
  • #59
  • Oct 13, 2009 10:08am Oct 13, 2009 10:08am
Quoting GreedyPIPs
Now my account is down to $80, after trying to trade with 5 min and 15 min candles. I do not use indicators, i do not go counter trend, i simply try to go with trend and take small profits. Problem is that my profitable trades are as many as my unprofitable trades.
I think the problem comes from the short time frames. It's just too much noise down there. I know, trading daily and weekly timeframes doesn't sound sexy though as you just often do nothing and wait.
  • #60
  • Oct 13, 2009 10:08am Oct 13, 2009 10:08am
Quoting GreedyPIPs
I've never said i expect to make millions... Nor thousands.

I don't see how i can trade with $80 capital, so i think im gonna risk opening only one position on EURUSD, and hope i can make some money with this, so i can trade with 1 micro lot, otherwise im gonna let the account go bust.
Can you change it to micro?, or keep the money on the account until you learn more on demo, but demo a lower amount, not $50,000.

And if you plan to open with $400 or $500 don't go mini, make the calculation:

400 * 2%(max risk of total capital) = 8pips on (.10lot)

this is crazy my friend, try micro with that amount of capital, is my recommendation, is your call.

Regards,

e
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