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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #202,661
  • Oct 10, 2009 3:47pm Oct 10, 2009 3:47pm
The MACD just gone above 0 on 4hour. A buy on break of the yellow resistance line....target 145.18 (23.6 fib.....163.06 to 139.69)
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  • #202,662
  • Oct 10, 2009 11:04pm Oct 10, 2009 11:04pm
it's weekend again and i wanted to post some charts for next week.

monthly:
- strong support @ PVP monthly, 138.99; i did not see a break below and am watching price action carefully for a possible rebound. where? let's see next...

weekly:
- strong resistance back at 156.22; if we get a strong rebound from where we are now, it MIGHT be possible to see this level challenged one more time.
however, for now, price is in the bearish side of the weekly chart and is very close to monthly support. it is not time to sell for long term, but it is a good opportunity to watch for some medium term buying. JUST BE PREPARED.
other important levels to watch: 149.50/150.50 (VWAP for current weekly swing).
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Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #202,663
  • Oct 10, 2009 11:12pm Oct 10, 2009 11:12pm
daily:
- very nice price action @ upper 139 area: SUPPORT. and we didn’t go up through supply line, which means that we are in the bearish part of the chart… but don’t short from here yet.
other important levels on daily: 142.30 area; 150.50, another volume peak (which is also VWAP for current daily swing); and PVP daily @ 154/156 (again!).

and finally, h4:
- PVP h4 is @ 142.30 area; a clear break above would challenge h4 VWAP, 146.20 area. and a break of 146.20 area would bring a test of 149.50/150.50 (daily VWAP).

what to watch for:
- another possible test of 139 area? and be careful, not to fall for a fake break!
- IF 142.30 is cleared upwards, then road is open for 146.20. and then we’ll take it from there – maybe 149/150?
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Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #202,664
  • Oct 11, 2009 3:15am Oct 11, 2009 3:15am
My two charts worth. Daily for overview. Hourly for notes.
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  • #202,665
  • Oct 11, 2009 5:36am Oct 11, 2009 5:36am
Quoting Scrat
daily:
- very nice price action @ upper 139 area: SUPPORT. and we didn’t go up through supply line, which means that we are in the bearish part of the chart… but don’t short from here yet.
other important levels on daily: 142.30 area; 150.50, another volume peak (which is also VWAP for current daily swing); and PVP daily @ 154/156 (again!).

and finally, h4:
- PVP h4 is @ 142.30 area; a clear break above would challenge h4 VWAP, 146.20 area. and a break of 146.20 area would bring a test of 149.50/150.50 (daily VWAP)....
Great analysis. I like the way you think; clear, concise and it usually confirms my own thoughts.
  • #202,666
  • Oct 11, 2009 5:52am Oct 11, 2009 5:52am
i am thinking most people are in agreement for once at the moment.

gj probably going up or will range a bit, at least in short term (fairly strong opinion from most)
gu probably going down short to medium term (very strong opinion from most)

and its pretty much all based on expected dollar strength, sending the already weak GU down, and the already oversold GJ up purely as a result of UJ moving up.

hopefully the holidays on monday result in more movement and not a borefest
  • #202,667
  • Oct 11, 2009 9:03am Oct 11, 2009 9:03am
for anyone that has not already seen this

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8301418.stm

UK rates 'to stay low for years'

"The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) believes the rate will remain at its current 0.5% level until 2011 and not reach 2% until 2014. The report, due on Monday, will predict the pound will weaken further, falling to $1.40 and "possibly" below 1 euro."

not sure what effect that will have, maybe help the pound drop faster early next week or maybe it will be ignored completely like a lot of these things usually are. but it certainly isnt going to help GU to go up.
  • #202,668
  • Oct 11, 2009 9:15am Oct 11, 2009 9:15am
...The CEBR added that the Bank programme to increase the amount of money in the economy - so-called quantitative easing - would increase by Ł75bn from the Ł175bn so far announced.
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #202,669
  • Oct 11, 2009 9:32am Oct 11, 2009 9:32am
Quoting 45Condor
...The CEBR added that the Bank programme to increase the amount of money in the economy - so-called quantitative easing - would increase by Ł75bn from the Ł175bn so far announced.
maybe true, alreayd heard BoE member Blanchflower saying QE would be increased in next months meeting. the pound is going to get completely hammered if that is the case. time to add tons of shorts perhaps
  • #202,670
  • Oct 11, 2009 10:40am Oct 11, 2009 10:40am
Possible Cable trade for me.
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  • #202,671
  • Oct 11, 2009 10:48am Oct 11, 2009 10:48am
Quoting ewokuk
maybe true, alreayd heard BoE member Blanchflower saying QE would be increased in next months meeting. the pound is going to get completely hammered if that is the case. time to add tons of shorts perhaps
Blanchflower is a former MPC member. He has always been ultra-dovish with his views on monetary policy, which are often way out off step from his former colleagues on the MPC.
  • #202,672
  • Oct 11, 2009 10:49am Oct 11, 2009 10:49am
thank you.

as you can see, i am focusing on higher timeframes. i started my profitable journey with daily and h4 because of my lifestyle; normally, i shouldn't trade lower than daily, but we all know volatility increased lately so i moved to h4 and sometimes when i suspect a new trend is about to begin i also watch h1.

i am posting these charts hoping to help others to focus on the big picture. everyone should always start looking at the highest timeframe, that's where the direction is. some will probably say, well, it's the same thing on smaller timeframes but the amplitude of moves is smaller. NO. it is NOT the same thing! keep in mind that ANYTHING that is lower than daily is MANIPULATED by big players - this is why higher timeframes are much more clearer and easier to trade. and this is why we see so much "noise" on smaller timeframes - fake breakouts, stop hunting etc.
think "backwards": if you think all timeframes are the same, then the same "noise" from smaller timeframes should be seen on higher timeframes as well, right? well, is it? i think it is not. "noise" = manipulation. the higher the timeframe, the smaller the impact of manipulation.

so my advice to "newbies" is, switch to higher timeframes and trade only in the direction of main trend. keep your charts on weekly, even monthly, and ride the main trend using h4 and daily! you will collect more pips and have more time to enjoy life.

Quoting ukdaytrader
Great analysis. I like the way you think; clear, concise and it usually confirms my own thoughts.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #202,673
  • Oct 11, 2009 11:13am Oct 11, 2009 11:13am
this chart is one i have been posting for the last 3 weeks

we are still in wave 3 down towards 130 as long as 145 zone holds ... max we can go to on a correction is 148

wave 3 should complete at the 161.8 fe around mid to end nov

the down move will liekly be from a free fall of gu from 1.5800 to 1.5000 zone.

on the gu chart we are still in wave 3 that ends somewhere in the 1.4600 zone. the deep blue line is my expected wave 3 on daily. The red arrows are alternat ew based on prior down wave lengths

targets 1.5798, 1.5713 , 1.5567 ,1,5170 , 1.4834

for swing traders I would focus on GU as scrat said trade the 4 hour charts as moves down will not be a direct line. GJ moves may be less trending than gu due to the Uj element of the pair... gj may suit day tradesr better.


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  • #202,674
  • Oct 11, 2009 11:26am Oct 11, 2009 11:26am
Quoting Scrat
thank you.

as you can see, i am focusing on higher timeframes. i started my profitable journey with daily and h4 because of my lifestyle; normally, i shouldn't trade lower than daily, but we all know volatility increased lately so i moved to h4 and sometimes when i suspect a new trend is about to begin i also watch h1.

i am posting these charts hoping to help others to focus on the big picture. everyone should always start looking at the highest timeframe, that's where the direction is.
thats exactly what ive started doing the last couple of weeks. had been trading 5min charts for the last year without much success but have been loving the 4h for last couple of weeks. not made anything spectacular, but ive been in profit for the last 2 weeks which was rare when fiddling with 5min charts.

however when trading those 5min charts i wasnt really looking at the daily, 4h or even 1h charts, the highest i went to MOST of the time was the 15, so perhaps this is why my 5min trading wasnt so good.

as malcolm says below, im going to focus on GU for the next week going for shorts all the way. hoping for a good week as i then have 2 weeks off work to trade all day so a good week this week gives me more to play with in the 2 weeks off
  • #202,675
  • Edited 1:07pm Oct 11, 2009 11:31am | Edited 1:07pm
This is a look at geppy from a market in balance/-/out of balance perspective. There are areas that need to be covered to bring the market back into balance, covering gaps in equlibriums, filling price caves, and filling voids within the equlibrium of the timeframe.Also my current elliott wave count im following.
Mike
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #202,676
  • Oct 11, 2009 11:50am Oct 11, 2009 11:50am
The best thing I ever did was to take a step back from trading the 5 and 15 minute charts without giving any consideration to the trend in higher time frames…it was just scalping a market that more often than not had already made the move to pull me in just as it reached its point of exhaustion/reversal; probably the easiest way to lose your account, even if keeping a tight control on MM.

Now, I make long-term trend analysis as best I can, plot my trendlines and Fibonacci points, and use these as a guide upon when to enter the market, and in what direction.

I use the daily as a backdrop on direction, 4hr charts for intraday monitoring, and then drop to the 1hr as fibs and points on trendlines approach. I use the 5/15 minute charts for entry.

Summation; I have doubled my account, keep trades longer, and don’t spend all day at the screen chasing trades until at the point of exhaustion and headache.

Of course, today is an exception, as the wife is cross-country horse riding all day, and I have been left with the task of stripping wallpaper… so I am using Forex as my break. Yes, the stripping is boring, so I have been taking quite a few breaks.
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #202,677
  • Oct 11, 2009 1:11pm Oct 11, 2009 1:11pm
Quoting Scrat
thank you.

as you can see, i am focusing on higher timeframes. i started my profitable journey with daily and h4 because of my lifestyle; normally, i shouldn't trade lower than daily, but we all know volatility increased lately so i moved to h4 and sometimes when i suspect a new trend is about to begin i also watch h1.

i am posting these charts hoping to help others to focus on the big picture. everyone should always start looking at the highest timeframe, that's where the direction is. some will probably say, well, it's the same thing on...
great post Scrat. And I will add "New York session" = Manipulation . . .
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #202,678
  • Oct 11, 2009 2:14pm Oct 11, 2009 2:14pm
here are the trading plan to follow monday in EUR/USD

target from opening price - sell 1,4715-20: target to buy again - 1,4635 (see chart, here will be a false break)
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  • #202,679
  • Oct 11, 2009 2:33pm Oct 11, 2009 2:33pm
Quoting 45Condor
[font=Times New Roman]The best thing I ever did was to take a step back from trading the 5 and 15 minute charts without giving any consideration to the trend in higher time frames…it was just scalping a market that more often than not had already made the move to pull me in just as it reached its point of exhaustion/reversal; probably the easiest way to lose your account, even if keeping a tight control on MM.

Now, I make long-term trend analysis as best I can, plot my trendlines and Fibonacci points, and use these as a guide upon when to enter...

what I have noticed is that alot of traders that want to day trade , say 3 hours per day , will often counter trade the main trend on the higher time frames ... this is completely wrong , as yes there will be retracements on the lower time frames but better to trade with the trend , not against it. few have good enough money management to admit when they are wrong and get out of the trade, when coutner trend trading , which I do once in a while ... I will use tighter stops

This has kept me out of trouble many a time.....

I use the value area of the prior day to tell me if it is sell rallies / buy dips or range trade

today price is under fridays lower value area .. that means that there is no buying interest above 1.5911 at the moment. If price goes into Fridays value area and stays there for 30 min this means that that smart money thinks gu is value at 1,5911 and there is an 80% chance we move acrosss fridays value area for a reversal day .... then and only then can I buy dips and look for ranging conditions. Currently i will look for some form of reatrce to 1.5911 then sell off that level


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  • #202,680
  • Oct 11, 2009 2:45pm Oct 11, 2009 2:45pm
Quoting malcolmb14
what I have noticed is that alot of traders that...
malcolms giving away all his secrets

i installed a new pivot indicator over weekend which i found on here before somewhere, it also shows the high and low of previous day so should be able to do this now.

only problem with the indi is i dont think it can be set to ignore sunday, and since my mt4 runs on GMT, it counts sunday as a whole day which lasts for 2 hours 2200 (5 EST) to midnight. so screws up the monday pivots instead of using fridays numbers
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