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4H Box Breakout

  • #4,801
  • Oct 10, 2009 7:00am Oct 10, 2009 7:00am
My weekly results continuation of my old accounts and one new account.
Leverage used was 0.2:1 to 0.3:1 on 2 accounts and 1:1 on another account.
returns: 1. 0.6% with 0.15 DD
2. 1% with no DD
3.1.5% with 0.6 DD

2 accounts live and 1 demo.

http://img33.imageshack.us/img33/1283/fxdd.th.png

http://img39.imageshack.us/img39/182/oandabwilc.th.png

http://img99.imageshack.us/img99/869...apivots.th.png

will start new account probably this week testing Ace system with modification. It will be $100 000 demo.
  • #4,802
  • Oct 10, 2009 11:04am Oct 10, 2009 11:04am
Ok, guys. I have been doing my little research. While doing it I was mostly concerned with bad ranging period since in good period blind old and mentally incapacitated lady would have been able to make money with break out system based on principles described on page one.
Generally speaking I made few changes. Reducing Ace's box was the first thing to do. and taking partial profit was second.
I tested few good months in different period and I say no back testing for good times is necessary. It works beautifully.
I tested bad periods. Like August, September and October. I will test it also for bad periods in 2002 and 2005 next week.
with new changes and risking only 1% per trade this system was able to make 36% in just 6 weeks with no losing trades. It is good times and I even did not pick all pips available. I set Max R;R as 12:1. There were few times when it was 20:1. Now I tested last 3 months. still I had a lot of losses especially September/ October. But kept entering trades nevertheless. Risk should not be more than 1% per trade ever or any week should be reduced to no more than 1-2 trades to avoid DDs that are dangerous to account.
if we lose 30% we should trade back more than 30%, should not be forgotten.
OK, with entering trades on every signal results are following:
August: Won: 1750 pips. Lost 200 pips. But: because we take 50% profit at 50 pips it means that 1 pips of loss has more per pip than 1 pip of winning trades. Hence, if I risk originally $20 per pip on $100 000 account that means we won $17500 and lost $4000. Net $13500 or 13.5%.

September: Won: 1400 pips. Lost 400 pips.
$14000 won. $8000 lost. Still net : $6000 or 6%.

October so far: Won: 1000 pips. Lost 400 pips.
$10 000 won. $8000 lost. Net $2000 or 2%. still very good iof to take into account conditions.
I entered all signals from Sunday night to Friday including.
Set some rules for situations when there is Sunday gap in prices and tested according to them.
Also, I used similar but not exactly same rule to move stop loss.
Anyway, discretion plays bigger role here than with original Ace's system.
But hey, those who want money gotta work hard.
I think the best is to concentrate on one pair and trade only it.
When you trade one pair all the time you know its behavior, S/R areas, everything. It makes you more effective trader with this pair.
Ok, this thing is still raw and need further improvements but not on Pharoah scale I lke to keep things simple.
  • #4,803
  • Oct 10, 2009 11:10am Oct 10, 2009 11:10am
As with any breakout systems, this one makes most of the money in few periods and no one knows when they start but when they do.....
Losses must be kept short and Ace's basic system had too big of stop loss. When there is momentum price picks up and there is no stopping it.
I believe that any trader should have few tools to trade and not depend on one system. But break out system should be a part of any trader portfolio.
I will start trading according to my rules tomorrow and will post results.
Plus, more tuning is still necessary and more backtesting especially for bad times.
Anyone knows how to use EA???
  • #4,804
  • Oct 10, 2009 11:23am Oct 10, 2009 11:23am
Shiko, please be mindful of the new rules. This thread is now temporarily dedicated to Gaz until Sunday evening. Or maybe we should continue to seek improvements of this system and start a new "Bash the Gaz" thread and continue insightful contributions?

Needless to say everyone needs a break from charts sometime, especially Gaz. Hence we don't anymore highly neurotic, and in this case a most likely mentally deranged, trader amongst us.

I only hope that Gaz can find help, and I don't mean with Forex, soon.

However if anyone is inclined to break these temporary rules they will be considered on a case by case basis.
  • #4,805
  • Oct 10, 2009 11:34am Oct 10, 2009 11:34am
Quoting penfield
Shiko, please be mindful of the new rules....

Penfield, you remember, I liked your facial features from the start, but who the Hell is Gaz or Gas? Any relation to Gas Prom?

I have not been following the latest direction the thread took, but from quick glance it looks like Yen is having good time with above mentioned Gaz or Gas...

I think that while approving Ace's original system things must be kept as simple as possible and Pharoag seems going too far and making this system too complex.
Also, while trading discretion still necessary. If someone wants to do nothing but set orders, Ace's system with little modification already exists. These improvements require attention and more discretion.
I wonder who can use EA to set rules and back test it for longer periods.
manually it is quite tedious. I had to move from 4H to 15Min time frames to check every day of the week.
  • #4,806
  • Oct 10, 2009 11:52am Oct 10, 2009 11:52am
Hello Guys,

at first I would say that no matter what you can say, at least you are still here making this thread alive, I respect you much for that.

I would also share my thoughts

More you will talk about "GAZ" more you will give him right.

He was saying that he/other does not enjoy reading this thread.

Of course if pages are about him or you because of him it is not interesting for the readers, so he will have right, right ?

So if you guys said that his post was useless, just stop talking about.

You see I did already too much about...

I am not here to judge it like GAZ (maybe I did a bit...)

I will follow it, I am reading the thread since the beginning and know I am very confused about, which candle are you thinking (backtest) it is the best ?

I had myself some ideas about, but I figured out that it was not that important which candle I use.

I tried the second candle, the candle before 0:00 CST, the candle after O/H/L/C below or after the weekly open (21:00 GMT) also 6:00 GMT (0:00 CST). and the FIRST STRIKE OPEN.

If you want try those settings..., I myself figured out that the entry on those BO doesn't matter, what matters is the R/R.

But I hope you can get me wrong, I will be truely happy.


Regards,
Billyjoe
  • #4,807
  • Oct 10, 2009 12:20pm Oct 10, 2009 12:20pm
Well said BillyJoe. My comments, albeit dry humor, are all in good jest. As stated I think we have seen the last of Gaz (that will be the last time I mention his name,) that poor chap. You guys are doing a great job.

Shiko, indeed Pharoah modified this system slightly, and he has developed a new thread titled the 4H Banker Buster (see below.) Fortunately for his suggestions I have made pips, during this recent consolidating market that I would have otherwise lost.

You may want to check out his modifications at: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=199622

Thank you again Shiko for your recent test results. It looks like your less invasive suggestions have made pips, also, during our recent struggles with GBP/JPY. I definitely appreciate your insightful contributions, too. Keep it coming!
  • #4,808
  • Oct 10, 2009 12:38pm Oct 10, 2009 12:38pm
Has nobody wish to go further a research of a better R/R as I mentionned, I will try to put some ideas about the "trigger" as it was going here.

To who seems much conservative, it seems the candle after the first candle (21:00 > 01:00 GMT) which the H/L is above or below the weekly open is more sure to take as BO but give less R/R.

Also I would say that in longer terms it would be better to take positions on E/U/G Yen 0.5%/each than 1.5% on G/Y.

Just my thoughts,

Billyjoe


PS : Sorry for my english...
  • #4,809
  • Oct 10, 2009 12:54pm Oct 10, 2009 12:54pm
Another way to place an order on a BO is to add a% of the volatility to the open.

Yonnie had the idea to add/substract 50 pips on the close of the first bar (1 gmt), it would be the same but on the sunday/monday open between 21gmt and 6gmt accordind to 30% (or more) on the volatility of last week (High - Low)

Of course this is nothing new but could be interesting for those who do not know, to do it or to be inspired about.

Billyjoe
  • #4,810
  • Oct 10, 2009 1:20pm Oct 10, 2009 1:20pm
Quoting shiko
I think that while approving Ace's original system things must be kept as simple as possible and Pharoag seems going too far and making this system too complex.
Yup, I agree that I have, but my system is also now very different than this one, But, with my modification I've drastically improved the ROI, so it's not for nothing.

Congrats on improving the original system to be profitable in times when the original system lost, without adding any complexities, but I think you'll find over the next little while that you'll need to include some complexities in order to maintain profitability over the long run.

If not, good on ya. I just think KISS systems tend to turn around a bite you in the ass, hard. And if your unfortunate to enter the market when the KISS system is in a bad point... bye bye account (much like anyone starting with this one 5-6 weeks ago). Have your modifications effected the other weeks at all? or has it just improved on what was losing weeks without any compromise to the already existing winning weeks?
  • #4,811
  • Oct 10, 2009 2:05pm Oct 10, 2009 2:05pm
Quoting Pharoah
Yup, I agree that I have, but my system is also now very different than this one, But, with my modification I've drastically improved the ROI, so it's not for nothing.

Congrats on improving the original system to be profitable in times when the original system lost, without adding any complexities, but I think you'll find over the next little while that you'll need to include some complexities in order to maintain profitability over the long run.

If not, good on ya. I just think KISS systems tend to turn around a bite you in the ass, hard. And...

Hi Pharoah,

you are definitively good, you are posting a lot to give ideas, respect to you, sincerely.

You do not have any suggestions about my last posts ?


Regards,
Billyjoe
  • #4,812
  • Oct 10, 2009 2:14pm Oct 10, 2009 2:14pm
Quoting Billyjoe
Hi Pharoah,

you are definitively good, you are posting a lot to give ideas, respect to you, sincerely.

You do not have any suggestions about my last posts ?


Regards,
Billyjoe
This is also something I'm looking into, volatility of the week prior should have an effect on the system during the next week. while not a huge factor, it should still have a roll in determining things such as box size, stoploss location, MA properties, Takeprofit points etc. These would not effect these aspects drastically, but enough to be dynamic and keep up with the market and the market changes.
  • #4,813
  • Oct 10, 2009 2:19pm Oct 10, 2009 2:19pm
Quoting Pharoah
This is also something I'm looking into, volatility of the week prior should have an effect on the system during the next week. while not a huge factor, it should still have a roll in determining things such as box size, stoploss location, MA properties, Takeprofit points etc. These would not effect these aspects drastically, but enough to be dynamic and keep up with the market and the market changes.


Of course the volatility is important which could matter but of course won't change "drastically".

I was much talking about the BO, which seems to be important in this thread.


What do you think about ?


Billyjoe
  • #4,814
  • Oct 10, 2009 2:29pm Oct 10, 2009 2:29pm
Quoting Billyjoe
Of course the volatility is important which could matter but of course won't change "drastically".

I was much talking about the BO, which seems to be important in this thread.


What do you think about ?


Billyjoe
Yeah, The Breakout position is very important, and should not be static, IE "1st bar size high/low" or "50+/50-" but more dynamic, like low volatility it would be 30+/30- and in high volatility more like 60+/60- (possibly including spread, this is also undetermined as optimal) But yes, Breakout is important, and more important then that is that it's dynamic.
  • #4,815
  • Oct 10, 2009 2:37pm Oct 10, 2009 2:37pm
Quoting Pharoah
Yeah, The Breakout position is very important, and should not be static, IE "1st bar size high/low" or "50+/50-" but more dynamic, like low volatility it would be 30+/30- and in high volatility more like 60+/60- (possibly including spread, this is also undetermined as optimal) But yes, Breakout is important, and more important then that is that it's dynamic.

Hi Pharoah,

I am not sure you understood my BO.

Or I am very confused about yours, in fact what is your actually BO ?



Bilyjoe
  • #4,816
  • Oct 10, 2009 2:51pm Oct 10, 2009 2:51pm
Quoting Gazmanfx
I will not read the entire thread. I have spent 7 years rading and participating in forex forums. They normally start of with a system that had a good run and a bunch of wide eyed newbies then after some time the system fails all the newbies bail out and the system start to work again and a whole bunch of new newbies are there wide eyed and ready to lose as much money as the first lot.

What I am interested in is solid result from a serious trader using real money. If you want to share that info that would be great. Otherwise this is just another...

Hey GAZ I know how you feel I remember you from the good old days.

Attached Image


After six years not much changed HUH
I do Good I feel GoodI do Bad I feel Bad
  • #4,817
  • Oct 10, 2009 4:02pm Oct 10, 2009 4:02pm
You uses to be a brroker and now you hang out at forex factory looking at some lame 4hr box breakout. Ha ha ha another delusional Newbie.

After 7 years nothing has changed. Newbies are still lazy and want to be served up a system on a plate and are unprepared to work for anything. That's why you have no idea and no money.

You are just another loser criticizing anyone who has has more sense than you. That sound like a real winning strategy. Loser!
  • #4,818
  • Oct 10, 2009 4:06pm Oct 10, 2009 4:06pm
Signing up.

Lenoxer
  • #4,819
  • Oct 10, 2009 4:13pm Oct 10, 2009 4:13pm
Making money in forex is easy! But the people making indicators and the people running forums and the people selling books and courses and the brokers are all there to make you believe it's hard and take your money.

Why else would you be sitting there buying this crap about the magical powers of the first 4HR bar of the week. Because you are educated to be a sucker and that's exactly what you are.

To make money in forex the first thing you need to do is pull your head out of the sand and listen to logic and stop spreading your ignorance like an infectious virus to new people that come along. People that start off with a brain and then get sucked into talking crap about the first 4HR bar of the week. What a complet and utter waste of time. If you people all got off the net and went down to play the slopt machines instead of wasting peoples time then maybe this forum could actually be of use to people who really want to trade. Idiots!

Take a coin. Flip it in the air fifty times. If you bet a dollar on it each time you would probably come out even. If you got two dollars each time you won but opnly had to pay $1 when you lost you would win. But what fool would play against you at those odds? Not eve forex will do that.

But what if you paid a dollar and when you lost you made an agreement that the next toss you would pay $2 and if you lost again $4?

Then you would always win

Now all you need to do is find a system that at the worst wins then loses then wins and then loses. With that strategy you don't want a system where you get a run of losers. Their are ways of ensuring that. To find such a system you need to use your own brain. To think for yourself. To not expect other people to do your work for you. To not be lazy and do your research and to not sit around talking smack to a bunch of ignoarant fools about the magical powers of the first 4HR bar of the week LOL
  • #4,820
  • Oct 10, 2009 4:29pm Oct 10, 2009 4:29pm
And before you ask. Yes I use such a system

If any of you know The Rumpled One he made a good point which is worth while listening to.

When it comes to money in forex you are the friendly squirrel and all around you are hungry bears just waiting to tear you to shreds and devour you. Then there are the foxes that are cunning and will lead you astray making you think they are there to help you until they tear you to shreds and devour you. It's a jungle out there and only the smartest will survive in this game.

To do that you need to know your enemy. Your enemy is ignorance and misinformation which is bread like a virus in forex forums. And scam artists that flood the forex book and course market. You have to be on your toes.

You have to think if 99% of people in forexz are losers and I spend a lot of my time in forums then perhaps...could it be...Yes it could be and it is. You are a loser. That's why you are sitting there talking about the 4HR Bar methos which stinks!

Like I said at the outset. This thread has been running a while. Any professional trader keeps records. If this method is any good could we plaese see those records. They don't exits because the guy moved onto something else after losing his shirt just like you will.

Forex is the only business where it is not only acceptable but encouraged to promote scam artists and where they are accepted. It is the only business where people flock to forums to hear from some guy that started trading a month ago.

It is the only business where 99% of people lose money but yet if you went by these forums you'd beleive 99% were MAKING money.

It's all misinformation, ignorance and scmas. If you want to be a full time trader you should be siding with me and sugesting we stop newbies from being able to post. Where systems are independently tested and accredited and where people can get information quickly and easilty to help them build their forex business. Yeah right! The business is run by scammer and that's never going to happen LOL
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