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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #10,881
  • Edited 2:29pm Oct 8, 2009 2:16pm | Edited 2:29pm
Quoting Setebos
Chaps, is it just me or there's a potential H&S forming on the EUR chart? I don't realy fancy figures, but still...
After the hot day and before Bernanke's speach market feels almost quiet.
do you mean neckline on 4770... if it goes down to a 4720 neckline then make right shoulder (4800) and back down, it would show on the 1hr, chart and i would change my bias. for me the 4770level is a place to take some risk off (probably because of what you are looking at) but i would not say the trend has reversed.

edit:when i looked at reversal-patterns on the 5m. chart i many times have changed my trend bias and became a pig.

i realy do not know how fti trades patterns but i only look at higher TF patterns and 5 min.charts for entry

just my 2 cents, pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #10,882
  • Oct 8, 2009 2:40pm Oct 8, 2009 2:40pm
Hi J

Yes, it was exactly that 5 min H&S that grabbed my eye, even though I prefered to remain an observer rather than trying trade it.
In my humble opinion classic TA figures tend to be much more unrealiable in forex then in stocks. No idea why - probably due to the scale and market structure differencies.

Anyway, I am currently out of the market, waiting for the PA to reveal itself. Not very like to happen before Bernanke's speach though.
  • #10,883
  • Oct 8, 2009 2:53pm Oct 8, 2009 2:53pm
I have back tested so many systems and it always changes. One year might be good one might be trash. Indicators are all a Crap Shoot. Indicators only give people something to believe in to risk money. Real traders don't predict they future the react to it. I stopped using indicators. My number are much better.
  • #10,884
  • Oct 8, 2009 3:09pm Oct 8, 2009 3:09pm
Quoting Setebos
Hi J

Yes, it was exactly that 5 min H&S that grabbed my eye, even though I prefered to remain an observer rather than trying trade it.
In my humble opinion classic TA figures tend to be much more unrealiable in forex then in stocks. No idea why - probably due to the scale and market structure differencies.

Anyway, I am currently out of the market, waiting for the PA to reveal itself. Not very like to happen before Bernanke's speach though.
ooh thank you stebos, for making me look at FFcalander.
i did not know that bernanke is going to talk. i always look at the calander but not what it says before europe. lesson learned.

about classic TA figures... maybe it is less reliable in forex because there are players who do not care about TA they just need a currency.

kind greetings, pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #10,885
  • Oct 8, 2009 6:04pm Oct 8, 2009 6:04pm
I need an advice. On my univerity I can take now international course instead of local one. In int. I will be in class with students from other countries and have lectures in english not in my local language. Should I take international one?
  • #10,886
  • Oct 8, 2009 9:37pm Oct 8, 2009 9:37pm
Quoting mijamoto
I need an advice. On my univerity I can take now international course instead of local one. In int. I will be in class with students from other countries and have lectures in english not in my local language. Should I take international one?
Hi mijimoto,

ofcoz inter'l one is better coz you will know many ppl from around the world & your english will improve & the most important thing you will have contact with those friends which in the future they might be big guys(who know?) Just like us,we accidently know Fti by luck. but friendship is to give & take. for this thread I'm only taking at the moment until I'm good I'll give too.
But also depend whether - is there limitatition on subjects which you'ld like to study?, that's all
IMHO.

Regards,
  • #10,887
  • Oct 8, 2009 9:40pm Oct 8, 2009 9:40pm
well, we seen what the e/u 4778 area did, scaled back and watching 4729 area
  • #10,888
  • Oct 8, 2009 10:23pm Oct 8, 2009 10:23pm
Quoting lilpip
well, we seen what the e/u 4778 area did, scaled back and watching 4729 area
I got up early today, so far so good. My bias for the EUR/USD is short at the moment as I expect profit taking for the week. I started my first attack around the 1.4750 area down to 1.4720 area and I am attacking again. Looking to finish the attack around or below 1.4700 If it does not reach, I will do a rescuse. Whatever happens I will try to be squared before the Europe/London session starts in case there is a change of direction. Regards to all and good trading for the last day of the week. Ray
  • #10,889
  • Oct 8, 2009 10:34pm Oct 8, 2009 10:34pm
Quoting 1234
I got up early today, so far so good. My bias for the EUR/USD is short at the moment as I expect profit taking for the week. I started my first attack around the 1.4750 area down to 1.4720 area and I am attacking again. Looking to finish the attack around or below 1.4700 If it does not reach, I will do a rescuse. Whatever happens I will try to be squared before the Europe/London session starts in case there is a change of direction. Regards to all and good trading for the last day of the week. Ray
ya done good so far and sounds like a plan.

my areas of extra intrest as I look at the terrain and follow the girl are.
4847
4778
4729
4644
  • #10,890
  • Oct 9, 2009 2:17am Oct 9, 2009 2:17am
Hello friends. Trading isnot easy. Here is where i am trading from... But,but the rain is near... and its cold... I have netbook and in or flat isnot a net... So i trade from a park.
I like it...yeah...

But it is moredangerous to trade here in a night... still i have to shake my head if somebody is behind...in a darkness...
Good trading for everyone.
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  • #10,891
  • Oct 9, 2009 2:34am Oct 9, 2009 2:34am
@fana

u trade from a park??
if u wanna get serious about trading get urself a proper place to trade from,
if u treat the market in such a non serious way , market will treat u the same...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #10,892
  • Oct 9, 2009 2:38am Oct 9, 2009 2:38am
Quoting maheswara
@fana

u trade from a park??
if u wanna get serious about trading get urself a proper place to trade from,
if u treat the market in such a non serious way , market will treat u the same...
Maheswara, thank you. Yes,that is true. I will resetle in 2month... I will have to stop immediatelly, but i am now in bad positio, driving it (trying to), for 3days....
  • #10,893
  • Oct 9, 2009 2:53am Oct 9, 2009 2:53am
Quoting Fana
Maheswara, thank you. Yes,that is true. I will resetle in 2month... I will have to stop immediatelly, but i am now in bad positio, driving it (trying to), for 3days....
in this business , u need to be able to handle getting kicked around by the market , wat differentiates the 5% and the 95% is their ability to bounce back after getting kicked hard ...
so bounce back friend , and start treating market more seriously ...
good fortune to u ...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #10,894
  • Edited 3:55am Oct 9, 2009 3:14am | Edited 3:55am
@ Fana - it's a business, mate, treat it like one. And if it's the thing you love doing it will never feel like a job. But you have to treat the market seriously, or it will come back to you and kick your @ss all over the place. Hanging in the park does not help you concentrate, it's most likely to work the other way around. Go to a coffee shop or something. Open areas don't do much for one's focus normally

Tasting the short at the EUR after my morning coffee. Anyone tuned in?
Edit: EUR didn't feel very confident, waiting for Trichet I guess. The cable on the other side is roaring south begging me to short it again

Just looking at the news recap after Bernanke's speach last night - “At some point, however, as economic recovery takes hold, we will need to tighten monetary policy to prevent the emergence of an inflation problem down the road.” It doesn't get more obvious, does it ? I wonder what the market's got to say about that
  • #10,895
  • Oct 9, 2009 4:15am Oct 9, 2009 4:15am
EU

at the moment EU is ranging(2nd test) between 47120 & 47400 from the chart. I think she is going down if she passes through 47120. or may be they are waiting for trade balance announcement
Pls coreect me if my analyze is wrong. Thank you.

Have a great day & good pips every one.

Regards,
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  • #10,896
  • Oct 9, 2009 6:25am Oct 9, 2009 6:25am
Happy trading day everyone. Been short the $/CAD today and my fellow CAD traders are doing pretty well today. Keeping an eye on the euro and the E/J, too. Hope you are all trading well.
  • #10,897
  • Oct 9, 2009 6:29am Oct 9, 2009 6:29am
Quoting pete.alfa
EU

at the moment EU is ranging(2nd test) between 47120 & 47400 from the chart. I think she is going down if she passes through 47120. or may be they are waiting for trade balance announcement
Pls coreect me if my analyze is wrong. Thank you.

Have a great day & good pips every one.

Regards,
I am looking at 4780 as the test for the euro going north or a stronger move south. IMHO
  • #10,898
  • Oct 9, 2009 8:34am Oct 9, 2009 8:34am
@ fti ,

after reading how the forex market is structured. I came to question the predictive ability of the COT reports.

COT data just contains the Chicago mercantile exchange currencies future contracts positions .. and not positions by banks and big financial institutions as they are not regulated by the CFTC to report their positions to them as being spread worldwide.

what does the COT data represent to you?

Regards
Enter Signature
  • #10,899
  • Oct 9, 2009 9:10am Oct 9, 2009 9:10am
Hi ALL,

Dance carefully, Its friday, and its inside day.

Inserted Video
  • #10,900
  • Oct 9, 2009 9:38am Oct 9, 2009 9:38am
Quoting maheswara
japan ?
Ai ya, when did japan shifted to europe?

Bear and sickle


regards
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