High Probability

all the way to r1 or at least to test the resent highs...
but if it did, there would certainly be consolidation at the pivot anyway and plenty of opportunity to get back in. Should it reach the pivot before going on to r1

can't go higher can't go lower
just above 200 ema 15 m
just below 200 ema 5 min
who's gonna win out?

they say, don't let a winner turn into a loser...
have to be away from trading table for and hour or so. closed for +4 pips
total for day -15.5 pips in micro

alright, pa has gone to the pivot point.
I closed the trade early for +7.7 pips in micro but I could have stayed for 33 pips
That's alright.
I didn't get all the money this time, but the strategy is good. very very good. As long as I am getting the strategy right the money will come.

Right when London opens or thereabouts there are some decent moves.
I want to be sure to be there to catch them.
I can plan around it. It will take a little doing, but that is when there are some very decent moves.

this could take a while
price action is bumping up against pivot point, a break through means testing the recent highs and possibly heading higher after that to r1.
there is strength in Fisher and transform on the 15 min as they are both crossing the 0 in favor of going higher.
can expect some stalling out here at the pivot. falling back some towards the 200 ema and then resuming uptrend with the likelihood of reaching the recent highs before lunch time NY. May see the move start in earnest at NY equities mkts open...
for the strategy to identify an entry for going higher
would need to see a pullback here, some white ashi candles on the 5 min, and then blue candles to resume the uptrend,
fisher and transform in agreement.

alternate scenario is break through fails,
Fisher and transform fall back below 0
and prices head for 200 ema on the 1 hour.

If US equities tank, this is a likely tgt.
Only data out is USD and CAD trade balance 8:30
CAD sentiment 10:30
That's it for data.
Then this is the last day before a 3 day weekend US.
What's really eyecatching is that the analysts are all bullish on equities now after pooh poohing since March. That has to be a sure sign the equities mkts have topped out.
A slide back down would take EURUSD with it...

it's going kinda far out for a scalper, but the monthly chart looks a little toppy
fisher and transform are above 0 but they have just recently dipped below. This can happen a few times as a trend loses strength before it finally reverses.

there's the first white candle on the 5 minute
a few more and then 2 blue candles with fisher and transform in agreement
is the entry, tgt is the recent high...
note that beautiful and fast counter trend drop.
ordinarily I would have jumped all over that.
it would have brought 8 or 9 pips.
and I would have thought yes, that's the way I knew it.
and then I would try it again another time and I would have been wrong and it would have cost 20 pips.
where is the game plan?
yes there was a cross on the 1 minute of fisher and the transform below zero, but that is not enough. They can look like they are crossing and move back up in a flash.
ashi, fiusher and transform on the five are the confidence builders for moves on the 1m.
at least for now that is the plan.

so that was nice retrace on the 1 min to s1, but how many times have I bought into a retrace only to have it spring right around and bite me in the you know what.

If I'm not sure what's going on, I can't figure it out. I don't need to be trading it.

looks like there were a lot of orders at the pivot point
priuces went there to fill them, but now has returned to the 200 ema on the 30 min a very strong area of support.
the hourly calls for a test of the 200 ema in that time frame.
no doubt there a lot of orders to be filled there.

down on the 5 m fisher and transform and ashi all agree.
so a pullback on the 5 with a few blue candles and then more white candles would be the entry short.

It's Friday... and just before a 3 day US weekend...
coo coo time..

big drop in 1 min was the trade deficit narrowing reported data. forgot to watch times for data release...

have taken long.
tgt is back to pivot point...

always imperative to set stops and limts at thetime of the trade. they can be changed later if necessary. But the internet does get interference and site do go down.

closed for +3 pips.
this may or may not go to pivot point.
3 pips is 3 pips.
there were a lot more pips available while the site was down.
these things happen but it is nasty...

-12 pips for the day

Friday..

on a day like today, flat, going no where it may still be possible to get a few pips here and there.
I am working on the computer anyway and I have the charts open. They have sound alerts.
If there is a signal I can take the entry for just a few pips.
forget targets at ema's and pivots, just grab a pip here or there. The system will give signals that allow me to do that. No worry about trend, it is more or less a 2 candle strategy on a day like today, Friday before a 3 day weekend...
or a I fooling myself where is the risk calculation for the trade?
Well there as a signal and all the indicators agreed, it is just that there is not much activity. almost lunch time US, slow trading, like most of the traders are already headed for vacation spots... I placed 10 pip tgt and 10 pip stop.
I exited after + 3 pips positive. so total for today is -10 pips in the micro... -9pips the demo.
If it is hi probability then that kind of risk ratio will work. I would need over 3 trades +3 pips to make up for one loss. But if it is hi prob then that might work. As long as I never took more than 10 pip loss.
demo testing yesterday it worked out really well. some of the trades were well more than +3 .. When there big sweeping moves then the strategy shows entries for longer range targets, but in ranging mkts the signals are also good just for smaller gains. Maybe so.
Let's see.
actually in the demo the trade brought in +10 pips, in the micro I closed earlier for +3

this morning the 1 hr said "I want to go visit the 200 ema, probably about lunch time

the 200 ema on the day chart is saying "come visit me."

any time there is a second candle on ashi it is a trade. some will be short little trades and others if fisher and transform are all lined up are in for a more significant move.