High Probability

hi jiva,

what is the your current setting for fisher 55 or 23?,i think 55 is little bit too late for 1M or am i wrong?,could you please post your current settings?

thank you!

sam

am using 55 fisher
found a lot of untradable signals with 23...
having any luck?

am determined to trade the system properly.
1st trade of the day, I am alittle fuzzy.
not the big momentum moves I want to capture.
signal for short on 5min ashi 2nd candle white,
fisher and transform both below 0
however prices are stalled on s1 and are in consolidation
likely a retrace to the lows and trading in a the range for a while.
if this is a good trade, prices will revisit the lows and reach the tgt, before they bounce back up again and hit the stop...
I have started trading in the real money micro and it is only pennies, but it is real money and I am sure there will be all sorts of dilemmas and challenges with this new added dimension. I know the stress I experience in just the demo.
The demo has become just as important as a real money account. Because it is all about getting the moves right and sticking to the game plan. Real money or no. That has become the criteria of success. The money will follow...
It has become clear now. The money will follow...

I cannot blame the system for this.
just a little fuzzy getting started.
perhaps in the future for the first few trades I may need to just trade demo.
To get in sync..
This trade is going nowhere.
now that I look at it more closely prices are stuck between the 200 ema and support at s1. the favorite nook for stalling.
There aren't any passengers waiting to board the train. The station is empty.
Too early for the commute..
prices are just going to bob up and down between 200 ema and s1 for who knows how long? Next data is insignificant, Fr industrial, 2:45 est..
an hour from now..
zzzzzzz.
this is most likely a losing trade.

the stop was a little higher on the micro account
the demo was stopped out on a spike
but the micro escaped and brought in +1.7 pips.
In micro terms that's +$.17.
My first trade with the system. And it's a winner!!!!
flukey and not exactly the way I intend to trade but a winner nonetheless.

just flip flopping between 200 ema and s1 on the 1 min.
GBP ppi 2 hrs.
guess this is just layover wait..
from the looks of the 1h prices will tap the 200ema on the 1hr at some point..
there is strong support on all the other time frames at 200 ema right here where prices are stalled...
no doubt there are a lot of orders (passengers) waiting at the 200 on the hourly...
by following the system there will be an appropriate entry with minimal risk and that is when to get aboard... The risk must be considered before entering the trade.. (Price of the ticket to ride) even if the destination is known. For there is always the possibility something will happen that will change the destination.
I like to think about how taking on too much risk is like playing all or nothing in a sort of a way.
All or nothing can be a winner for who knows how many trades...
But all it takes is one loser and out of the game.
Risk management.

all signals good on 5 min
ashi 2nd blue
fisher and transform crossing above 0
as soon I entered long, pullback to 200 ema after what looked like a break out.
moved stop little further away.
false break out..
all the pressure is on the downside on higher timeframes.
so in a sense this was a bit of a counter trend trade.
it snuck up on me.
but to be avoided like the plague..
CTA rules...
-25 pips..
down for the day
-23.3 pips
test after test..
do I stay calm and scientific or do I start to get irrational, adrenalin trades..
does the cat with ball of yarn come to visit, do I lose the focus and stop using the strategy?
I wanted a green light, but it was a red light, so do I plow through every red light from now convinced there are no green lights?
Maybe this comes easier to other traders, getting the psychology right...
but for me it is taking hard work...

when Frankfurt opens that will be a good trading time when there is German data.
the activity level is important for serious trends.
so even if there are signals given in the system without heightened trading activity there is no conviction or follow through, it is just spurts and starts and whipsaws..
not good trading environment even with signals.

all signals good
1m and 5min
price action resting for considerable time on s1 for consolidation..
equities are all higher good for EUR.
London is open.. more activity.
tgt 30 pips
stop 25 pips
there is $25 in the account.
risking 25 pips id $2.50.
that is 10% of the account.
A lot to risk. too much really.
but I don't want to put any more money than that in an account for now, so we shall see.
not looking all that great right now, though
am trading by the rules...
the system is good...

there is that 200 ema on the 1hour. You know there have to be order sitting there.
balancing act on s1 right now. You now this has to go to 200 ema.
moving limit to just under 200 ema on 1m in the hopes that there are few order sitting there and prices will visit there before going to the 200ema on the 1 hour...
I could catch this both ways, on the way up and then again on the way down.

15 min is GBP ppi, can be a market mover.
1 and 1/4 hours ECB Trichet giving a statement another market mover.
so maybe no one goes anywhere for a little while longer

I knew as soon as I tried to trade real money things would get funny.
The demo has been no problem. Lots of winning trades. So I know it can be done. Let me get past this.

reasoning like this,
if the news that comes out of GBP is good, then prices will climb,
good trade,
it is not likely that they will spike up just before the data since they are almost totally inactive now all morning.
So better to have the higher target which is just under the pivot point. There are definitely lots of orders waiting there.
5 mins will tell, data due out.
problem is what is on the 1hr chart, the possible drop down the 200 ema

that 200 ema is where this is going...
on the wrong side of the trade.

affect the mkts?

didn't exactly set the marketplace on fire...
still kinda stalled out...
just very little trading activity.
usually London is perky...
Trichet speak in 45 mins?
on hold till then?
thing is when it moves, it's gonna really move.
Been stalled out so long.....

this could be the start of a reversal back up..
fisher tried to poke through 0 a few times
just that all the time frames through 30 min are all bearish.
and the 200 ema on the 60min is calling, come visit me...
the daily also has a 200 ema that is inviting...
the question then is, is s1 strong enough to keep prices from going lower.
perhaps because there is such a long delay sitting here at s1 that is an indications that it is strong enough and there is no need to go lower.
Or maybe I am just dreaming..
I entered on good signals at least they were good on the 5min and 1 min... at the time...

the trade is not going as I had planned.
but there is still the possibility it can be good.
there is small loss right now. Should I take the small loss and consider myself lucky to get out, or hang on to see if it does pan out risking the full stop.
decision is to leave the trade on...
I'm leaving the trading table..
be back in a while..

so the trade is back to break even
do I want to close and consider myself lucky
or would I enter the trade here if I were not already in it??
I would go long here.
sooooo.
the tgt is still just below the pivot.
even though the 15 min is still bearish

still a bit of a fence sitter
that 15 min needs to have fisher and transform solidly cross 0
then again the 1hr shows a bounce off a strong long term trend line....
so a visit to the 200 ema may not have been necessary... trend lines rule...